Kauno žalgiris II faces a tough test at home against Atmosfera, who are coming off a draw in their last outing. This match is expected to be a closely contested affair, with Atmosfera narrowly favoured to win according to the model's prediction. The away win is the model's selection with a 48% chance of occurring, while the home win is estimated at 25% and the draw at 27%.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.1%.
Atmosfera has shown a strong away form, scoring an average of 1.56 goals and conceding 0.67 goals per match against similar opponents. Kauno žalgiris II, on the other hand, has been scoring an average of 2.17 goals and conceding 1.67 goals at home.
The model suggests taking the Over 1.5 goals with a 75.8% chance of success, while also selecting Under 3.5 goals with a 72.1% chance of success, although this selection comes with a slight edge.
Results analysis
Kauno žalgiris II's 3-1 win over Atmosfera extends their run of form, coming off a win. The actual result was a home win, a surprise given the pre-match favourite was an Away win, which had a 48% probability of occurring. The model's call was incorrect. The model's selection, an Away win, did not come through. The model's selection had a 48% probability of occurring. Atmosfera's selection, Over 1.5, hit, with a 75.8% probability. Under 3.5, also selected by the model, missed, with a 72.1% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris II win✓ Hit
24.6%
Avg Implied 17.4% · @ 5.13
Edge
+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.14
Marathonbet
5.90
William Hil
5.50
Pinnacle
5.27
Dafabet
5.20
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 3.84
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.20
Betano
3.95
Dafabet
3.95
10Bet
3.95
1xBet
3.94
Atmosfera win✗ Miss
48.0%
Avg Implied 59.3% · @ 1.51
Edge
-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.62
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.53
Dafabet
1.53
Betano
1.52
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.07
1.40
1.93
1.53
2.20
vs Stronger (28)
1.39
2.07
1.43
1.86
1.36
2.29
vs Similar (2)
2.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atmosfera
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.13
2.31
1.50
1.29
0.71
vs Stronger (27)
1.63
1.22
2.13
1.60
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (3)
3.67
0.33
5.00
0.00
3.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
@ 1.19-0.4%
Under 1.5
24.2%
@ 3.82+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Unibet
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.9%
@ 1.69-3.9%
Under 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.98+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.9%
@ 2.74-5.3%
Under 3.5
72.1%
@ 1.36+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.74
Pinnacle
2.74
1xBet
2.74
Superbet
2.70
Under
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.7%
@ 1.75+1.9%
No
46.3%
@ 1.88-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
William Hil
1.75
No
Unibet
2.02
Betfair
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 7.10+7.2%
0-1
9.8%@ 6.63+3.5%
1-2
9.5%@ 7.34+3.8%
0-2
8.8%@ 6.71+2.6%
0-0
8.1%@ 10.79+4.3%
2-1
6.4%@ 14.14+3.5%
1-0
6.3%@ 13.29+3.2%
2-2
5.1%@ 14.00+2.1%
Kauno Žalgiris II goals ↓
Atmosfera goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
9.8%
8.8%
4.6%
1.8%
1
6.3%
13%
9.5%
5.0%
2.0%
2
4.0%
6.4%
5.1%
2.7%
1.1%
3
1.5%
2.3%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Atmosfera goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.60
Minija
2.25
Babrungas
2.17
BFA
2.17
Dainava
1.80
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.67
Tauras
1.60
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Be1 NFA
1.20
Jonava
1.20
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Transinvest 2
0.80
Ekranas
0.67
Garliava
0.00
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.20 points better than Atmosfera in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
3.00
BFA
2.17
Žalgiris II
2.00
Babrungas
1.83
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.60
Atmosfera
1.40
Dainava
1.40
Tauras
1.40
Transinvest 2
1.40
Hegelmann II
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.17
Be1 NFA
1.00
Jonava
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Garliava
0.20
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.20 goals better than Atmosfera in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.25
Babrungas
0.50
Žalgiris II
0.60
Dainava
0.80
BFA
0.83
Jonava
1.00
Tauras
1.20
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Atmosfera
1.60
Garliava
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.80
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.00
Transinvest 2
2.00
Hegelmann II
2.50
Ekranas
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.40 goals worse than Atmosfera in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
0.47
1.13
1.07
0.80
vs Stronger (28)
0.71
0.93
0.50
1.07
0.93
0.79
vs Similar (2)
1.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atmosfera
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.94
0.62
0.50
0.36
vs Stronger (27)
0.67
0.56
0.93
0.67
0.33
0.42
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.10
0.93
0.80
0.47
1.40
vs Stronger (28)
0.68
1.14
0.93
0.79
0.43
1.50
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atmosfera
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.38
0.88
0.79
0.36
vs Stronger (27)
0.96
0.67
1.20
0.93
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (3)
2.33
0.33
4.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.8%
1.19
Unibet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.1%
1.36
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.35
+5.3%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (27)
€1m
HI (37)
€0m
MIN (25)
€0m
FŠI (30)
€0m
TAU (21)
€0m
T2 (24)
€0m
DAI (28)
€0m
BFA (27)
€0m
NK (22)
€0m
GAR (25)
€0m
KŽI (29)
€0m
ATM (19)
€0m
EKR (31)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris II and Atmosfera have a similar squad value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BFA
Babrungas
Žalgiris II
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Tauras
FA Šiauliai II
Jonava
Be1 NFA
Hegelmann II
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava