Kauno Žalgiris II’s recent 2-game winning streak fuels optimism for a high-scoring encounter, while Ekranas’ heavy 0-5 defeat away suggests defensive frailties. The model favours a home win, with a 50% chance, a 24% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of an away victory. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a lively match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.5% probability. Kauno Žalgiris II average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded at home against similar opposition; Ekranas average 0.0 away goals scored and 5.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Under 6.5 (94.6%), Home +2 handicap (88.3%), Under 5.5 (87.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (86.0%) and Over 1.5 (85.6%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris II win
50.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekranas win
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.00
1.62
1.94
1.57
2.07
vs Stronger (27)
1.48
2.04
1.57
1.93
1.38
2.15
vs Similar (3)
2.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekranas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.23
0.87
2.53
1.40
1.93
vs Stronger (27)
1.22
2.04
0.92
2.38
1.50
1.71
vs Similar (3)
0.33
4.00
0.50
3.50
0.00
5.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.2%
Under 2.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.2%
Under 3.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.1%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
4.6%
Kauno Žalgiris II goals ↓
Ekranas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
4.0%
3.4%
1.6%
0.5%
1
6.1%
11%
6.6%
3.0%
1.0%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.5%
6.1%
4.2%
1.9%
0.6%
4
2.2%
3.0%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Ekranas goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.93 points better than Ekranas in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.98 goals better than Ekranas in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 0.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Kauno Žalgiris II is 1.33 goals better than Ekranas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kauno Žalgiris II or Draw
73.9%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Kauno Žalgiris II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II or Ekranas
76.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Kauno Žalgiris II + Ekranas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ekranas
50.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Draw + Ekranas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5
Over
85.7%
Under
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 3.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 0.5
Over
74.5%
Under
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5
Over
39.7%
Under
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kauno Žalgiris II, so a minus line means Kauno Žalgiris II give that many goals of a start and Ekranas receive them. At -1, Kauno Žalgiris II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kauno Žalgiris II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kauno Žalgiris II)
Kauno Žalgiris II -2
13.8%
Draw -2
15.4%
Ekranas +2
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kauno Žalgiris II)
Kauno Žalgiris II -1
29.2%
Draw -1
20.8%
Ekranas +1
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kauno Žalgiris II)
Kauno Žalgiris II +1
73.9%
Draw +1
14.3%
Ekranas -1
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kauno Žalgiris II)
Kauno Žalgiris II +2
88.3%
Draw +2
7.6%
Ekranas -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.31
1.19
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (27)
0.70
0.93
0.36
1.14
1.08
0.69
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekranas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.33
0.93
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (27)
0.48
0.78
0.31
0.77
0.64
0.79
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.67
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.1%
Under 0.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.9%
Under 1.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.1%
Under 2.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
1.31
0.75
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (27)
0.78
1.11
1.21
0.79
0.31
1.46
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekranas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekranas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.37
0.53
1.60
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (27)
0.74
1.26
0.62
1.62
0.86
0.93
vs Similar (3)
0.00
2.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
4.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.2%
Under 0.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.8%
Under 1.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.5%
Under 2.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekranas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris II and Ekranas have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris II and Ekranas have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris II and Ekranas have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →