Kauno Žalgiris II are the clear favourites, with a 57% chance of victory, while a draw sits at 24% and Garliava’s odds of triumph are only 19%. The model projects an average of 2.9 goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 24% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11.5% chance, reflecting the evenly matched teams. Home side Kauno Žalgiris II average two goals scored and conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Garliava, on the road, averages 1.33 scored and two conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 6.5 (97.1%), Home +2 handicap (93.1%), Under 5.5 (92.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.6%), and Home over 0.5 goals (85.0%). Kauno Žalgiris II’s recent two-game winning run and a 3-0 win over Hegelmann II contrast sharply with Garliava’s five consecutive defeats and a 0-1 loss to Babrungas, setting the tone for a likely home victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris II win
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Garliava win
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.00
1.62
1.94
1.57
2.07
vs Stronger (27)
1.48
2.04
1.57
1.93
1.38
2.15
vs Similar (3)
2.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Garliava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.87
1.00
1.80
1.20
1.93
vs Stronger (24)
1.17
1.88
1.17
1.83
1.17
1.92
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.83
0.33
1.67
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.7%
1-0
9.4%
0-0
6.7%
3-1
6.1%
3-0
6.0%
1-2
5.4%
Kauno Žalgiris II goals ↓
Garliava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
4.7%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
1
9.4%
12%
5.4%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.9%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.0%
6.1%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.8%
2.9%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Garliava goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Kauno Žalgiris II is 1.50 points better than Garliava in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Kauno Žalgiris II is 1.67 goals better than Garliava in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 0.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.17 goals worse than Garliava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kauno Žalgiris II or Draw
80.6%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Kauno Žalgiris II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II or Garliava
75.4%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Kauno Žalgiris II + Garliava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Garliava
44.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Draw + Garliava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5
Over
84.4%
Under
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 3.5
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5
Over
64.0%
Under
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kauno Žalgiris II, so a minus line means Kauno Žalgiris II give that many goals of a start and Garliava receive them. At -1, Kauno Žalgiris II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kauno Žalgiris II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kauno Žalgiris II)
Kauno Žalgiris II -2
15.5%
Draw -2
17.5%
Garliava +2
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kauno Žalgiris II)
Kauno Žalgiris II -1
33.0%
Draw -1
23.0%
Garliava +1
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kauno Žalgiris II)
Kauno Žalgiris II +1
80.6%
Draw +1
12.1%
Garliava -1
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kauno Žalgiris II)
Kauno Žalgiris II +2
92.7%
Draw +2
5.3%
Garliava -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.31
1.19
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (27)
0.70
0.93
0.36
1.14
1.08
0.69
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Garliava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.40
0.87
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (24)
0.62
0.83
0.42
0.83
0.83
0.83
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
1.31
0.75
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (27)
0.78
1.11
1.21
0.79
0.31
1.46
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Garliava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Garliava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.60
0.93
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (24)
0.54
1.04
0.75
1.00
0.33
1.08
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
0.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Garliava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris II and Garliava have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris II and Garliava have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris II and Garliava have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas