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Kauno Žalgiris II vs Jonava Result & Analysis

Date: 14/08/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 2-1
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
Vs
19%
27%
54%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Jonava
Jonava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

This match is likely to be a narrow away win for Jonava, with the away side's recent form and ability to score when playing weaker opponents suggesting they have the edge. Kauno žalgiris II, on the other hand, have struggled at home, conceding an average of two goals per match, and their recent defeat will be a concern. The expected total goals average is 2.6, with the most likely total goals being 2.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.7%. Jonava's away scoring and conceding average is 0.33 goals per match, while Kauno žalgiris II's home scoring and conceding average is 1.46 and 2.0 goals per match respectively. The model's selection is the away win, with a 54% probability. The model's selections are the Under 3.5 goals with a 74% probability and the Over 1.5 goals with a 74% probability. The home win percentage is 19%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 54%.

Results analysis

In a major upset, Kauno žalgiris II stunned Jonava with a 2-1 win at home, extending their recent run of form. The actual result was a home win, contrary to the model's prediction of an away win, which had a pre-match probability of 54%. The model's selection, an away win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks played out as expected, with both "Under 3.5" and "Over 1.5" goals hitting, each with a probability of 74%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris II win✓ Hit
19.4%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.71
Edge
-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.94
William Hil
3.90
Marathonbet
3.86
Dafabet
3.85
10Bet
3.75
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.36
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.70
Betfair
3.50
Betano
3.50
Dafabet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Jonava win✗ Miss
53.9%
Avg Implied 49.3% · @ 1.81
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.85
Betfair
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Dafabet
1.83

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L04L12L13L01L34L02L24L31W12LH·TRA26/09H·BE105/10H·BAB18/10A·NEP24/10H·TAU31/10A·NEV09/11H·BAB19/07A·TAU24/07H·ATM01/08A·ŽAL10/08
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.572.101.532.001.602.20
vs Stronger (27)1.442.151.462.001.432.29
vs Similar (3)2.671.672.002.004.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JonavaJonava

Last 10 – goals for & against
160-1622D10W02L00D02L160W04L10W20W12LH·NEV04/10A·MIN18/10H·ATM25/10A·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07H·EKR07/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.000.881.502.360.43
vs Stronger (9)1.441.781.002.602.000.75
vs Similar (9)0.670.560.600.600.750.50
vs Weaker (12)2.330.751.001.333.670.17
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
@ 1.25+1.1%
Under 1.5
26.0%
@ 3.38-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Under
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.6%
@ 1.82-2.4%
Under 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.82+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betfair
1.85
Betano
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.86
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
@ 3.12-3.3%
Under 3.5
74.0%
@ 1.29+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Unibet
2.85
Under
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.7%
@ 1.73-2.8%
No
50.3%
@ 1.91+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Unibet
1.67
No
Unibet
2.04
Betfair
1.95
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 6.42+6.1%
0-1
11.5%@ 6.67+5.1%
0-2
10.5%@ 8.08+5.3%
1-2
9.6%@ 7.58+4.0%
0-0
8.7%@ 9.50+4.3%
0-3
5.8%@ 13.67+2.7%
1-0
5.8%@ 10.50+1.7%
1-3
5.3%@ 12.67+2.0%
Kauno Žalgiris II goals ↓
Jonava goals →
01234
08.7%11%11%5.8%2.4%
15.8%13%9.6%5.3%2.2%
23.2%5.3%4.4%2.4%1.0%
31.0%1.6%1.3%0.7%0.3%
40.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Jonava goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Kauno Žalgiris II and Jonava are level in average points per game (both 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.67 goals better than Jonava in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.67 goals worse than Jonava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L04L01L11D00D32W01L21W01L10WH·TRA26/09H·BE105/10H·BAB18/10A·NEP24/10H·TAU31/10A·NEV09/11H·BAB19/07A·TAU24/07H·ATM01/08A·ŽAL10/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.970.471.201.130.73
vs Stronger (27)0.780.930.541.151.000.71
vs Similar (3)1.001.330.001.503.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JonavaJonava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-820W00D01L00D00D80W03L00D00D01LH·NEV04/10A·MIN18/10H·ATM25/10A·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07H·EKR07/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.470.380.620.930.29
vs Stronger (9)0.671.110.601.600.750.50
vs Similar (9)0.220.110.400.000.000.25
vs Weaker (12)0.920.250.170.331.670.17
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D11D02L01L02L01L03L30W02LH·TRA26/09H·BE105/10H·BAB18/10A·NEP24/10H·TAU31/10A·NEV09/11H·BAB19/07A·TAU24/07H·ATM01/08A·ŽAL10/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.131.070.800.471.47
vs Stronger (27)0.671.220.920.850.431.57
vs Similar (3)1.670.332.000.501.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JonavaJonava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-802L10W01L00D02L80W01L10W20W11DH·NEV04/10A·MIN18/10H·ATM25/10A·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07H·EKR07/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.530.500.881.430.14
vs Stronger (9)0.780.670.401.001.250.25
vs Similar (9)0.440.440.200.600.750.25
vs Weaker (12)1.420.500.831.002.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.0%1.29
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-+3.3%✓ Hit
Over 1.574.0%1.25
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
-+1.1%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
KŽI wins
2
Draws
0
JON wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kauno Žalgiris II vs Jonava · H/A from KŽI
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/25AJonava Vs KŽI1-1
05/04/25HKŽI Vs Jonava1-0
29/07/23HKŽI Vs Jonava0-0
12/03/23AJonava Vs KŽI0-2

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/26AŽalgiris II Vs KŽI2-1
01/08/26HKŽI Vs Atmosfera3-1
24/07/26ATauras Vs KŽI4-2
19/07/26HKŽI Vs Babrungas0-2
09/11/25ANevėžis Vs KŽI4-3
31/10/25HKŽI Vs Tauras0-1
24/10/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs KŽI3-1
18/10/25HKŽI Vs Babrungas1-2
05/10/25HKŽI Vs Be1 NFA0-4
26/09/25HKŽI Vs TransINVEST Vilnius2-3

JonavaJonava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/26HJON Vs Ekranas1-2
31/07/26ABe1 NFA Vs JON0-2
25/07/26HJON Vs Garliava1-0
29/04/26HJON Vs Šiauliai0-4
14/04/26AUtenos Utena Vs JON0-16
09/11/25HJON Vs Ekranas0-2
31/10/25AŽalgiris II Vs JON0-0
25/10/25HJON Vs Atmosfera0-2
18/10/25AMinija Vs JON0-1
04/10/25HJON Vs Nevėžis2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL0.96
HomeLLLLW1.12
AwayLLLLL0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals3.403.203.60
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %66%64%68%
Over 3.5 %46%44%48%
Scored1.361.361.36
Conceded2.041.842.24
BTTS56%60%52%
Clean Sheet14%16%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Jonava
Jonava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.30
HomeLLLWL0.88
AwayWWDWW1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%21%50%
AVG goals2.782.503.04
Over 1.5 %68%75%62%
Over 2.5 %44%42%46%
Over 3.5 %28%25%31%
Scored1.420.752.04
Conceded1.361.751.00
BTTS40%42%38%
Clean Sheet34%21%46%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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