This match is likely to be a narrow away win for Jonava, with the away side's recent form and ability to score when playing weaker opponents suggesting they have the edge. Kauno žalgiris II, on the other hand, have struggled at home, conceding an average of two goals per match, and their recent defeat will be a concern. The expected total goals average is 2.6, with the most likely total goals being 2.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.7%. Jonava's away scoring and conceding average is 0.33 goals per match, while Kauno žalgiris II's home scoring and conceding average is 1.46 and 2.0 goals per match respectively. The model's selection is the away win, with a 54% probability. The model's selections are the Under 3.5 goals with a 74% probability and the Over 1.5 goals with a 74% probability. The home win percentage is 19%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 54%.
Results analysis
In a major upset, Kauno žalgiris II stunned Jonava with a 2-1 win at home, extending their recent run of form. The actual result was a home win, contrary to the model's prediction of an away win, which had a pre-match probability of 54%. The model's selection, an away win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks played out as expected, with both "Under 3.5" and "Over 1.5" goals hitting, each with a probability of 74%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris II win✓ Hit
19.4%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.71
Edge
-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.94
William Hil
3.90
Marathonbet
3.86
Dafabet
3.85
10Bet
3.75
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.36
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.70
Betfair
3.50
Betano
3.50
Dafabet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Jonava win✗ Miss
53.9%
Avg Implied 49.3% · @ 1.81
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.85
Betfair
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Dafabet
1.83
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
2.10
1.53
2.00
1.60
2.20
vs Stronger (27)
1.44
2.15
1.46
2.00
1.43
2.29
vs Similar (3)
2.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jonava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.00
0.88
1.50
2.36
0.43
vs Stronger (9)
1.44
1.78
1.00
2.60
2.00
0.75
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.56
0.60
0.60
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
2.33
0.75
1.00
1.33
3.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
@ 1.25+1.1%
Under 1.5
26.0%
@ 3.38-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Under
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.6%
@ 1.82-2.4%
Under 2.5
52.4%
@ 1.82+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betfair
1.85
Betano
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.86
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
@ 3.12-3.3%
Under 3.5
74.0%
@ 1.29+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Unibet
2.85
Under
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.7%
@ 1.73-2.8%
No
50.3%
@ 1.91+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Unibet
1.67
No
Unibet
2.04
Betfair
1.95
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 6.42+6.1%
0-1
11.5%@ 6.67+5.1%
0-2
10.5%@ 8.08+5.3%
1-2
9.6%@ 7.58+4.0%
0-0
8.7%@ 9.50+4.3%
0-3
5.8%@ 13.67+2.7%
1-0
5.8%@ 10.50+1.7%
1-3
5.3%@ 12.67+2.0%
Kauno Žalgiris II goals ↓
Jonava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
11%
11%
5.8%
2.4%
1
5.8%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.2%
5.3%
4.4%
2.4%
1.0%
3
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Jonava goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Kauno Žalgiris II and Jonava are level in average points per game (both 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.67 goals better than Jonava in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.67 goals worse than Jonava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.47
1.20
1.13
0.73
vs Stronger (27)
0.78
0.93
0.54
1.15
1.00
0.71
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jonava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.38
0.62
0.93
0.29
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.60
1.60
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.11
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.25
0.17
0.33
1.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.13
1.07
0.80
0.47
1.47
vs Stronger (27)
0.67
1.22
0.92
0.85
0.43
1.57
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jonava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
0.50
0.88
1.43
0.14
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.67
0.40
1.00
1.25
0.25
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.44
0.20
0.60
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.50
0.83
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.0%
1.29
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.0%
1.25
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →