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Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Result & Analysis

Date: 05/07/2024
Time: 15:30
Final 1-0
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Vs
27%
27%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✗ Miss
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-721W01L00D70W10W00D22D41W20W01LH·ŠIA12/05A·FK 19/05A·PAN25/05A·NEM29/05A·DŽI02/06A·DAI15/06A·SUD19/06H·HEG23/06H·TRA26/06A·ŠIA01/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.830.901.881.001.790.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.501.062.001.000.671.17
vs Weaker (14)2.210.711.671.002.620.50
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W21W12L31W21W40W40W20W13LA·HEG12/05H·KAU19/05A·ŠIA26/05A·TRA30/05A·TRA02/06H·PAN16/06A·DŽI19/06H·SUD23/06A·BAN26/06A·HEG30/06
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.032.141.071.881.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.141.291.331.171.001.38
vs Weaker (16)2.750.812.751.002.750.62
Clean sheet %40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.6%
Under 3.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
8.0%
0-0
7.6%
2-1
6.9%
1-0 ✓
6.3%
2-2
5.5%
Kauno Žalgiris goals ↓
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals →
01234
07.6%8.9%8.0%4.2%1.6%
16.3%13%9.3%4.9%1.9%
24.4%6.9%5.5%2.9%1.1%
31.7%2.7%2.1%1.1%0.4%
40.5%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris goals (down), columns = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.19
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.50
Dainava
1.25
Banga
1.19
Šiauliai
1.17
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
1.14
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.06
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.69 points worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.67
Kauno Žalgiris
1.19
Šiauliai
1.08
Banga
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.97
Dainava
0.94
Panevėžys
0.94
Džiugas Telšiai
0.92
Suduva Marijampole
0.89
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.92 goals worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 2.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86
Be1 NFA
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.08
Dainava
1.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Panevėžys
1.11
Banga
1.28
Džiugas Telšiai
1.33
Šiauliai
1.39
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.39
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.25 goals worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D30W00D00D11D21W10W00DH·ŠIA12/05A·FK 19/05A·PAN25/05A·NEM29/05A·DŽI02/06A·DAI15/06A·SUD19/06H·HEG23/06H·TRA26/06A·ŠIA01/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.300.620.500.790.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.250.700.400.670.00
vs Weaker (14)0.710.360.500.670.880.12
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D00D10W10W30W10W00D11DA·HEG12/05H·KAU19/05A·ŠIA26/05A·TRA30/05A·TRA02/06H·PAN16/06A·DŽI19/06H·SUD23/06A·BAN26/06A·HEG30/06
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.300.930.210.810.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.500.290.670.170.380.38
vs Weaker (16)1.190.311.120.251.250.38
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W01L00D40W10W00D11D20W10W01LH·ŠIA12/05A·FK 19/05A·PAN25/05A·NEM29/05A·DŽI02/06A·DAI15/06A·SUD19/06H·HEG23/06H·TRA26/06A·ŠIA01/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.601.250.501.000.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.810.811.300.600.001.17
vs Weaker (14)1.500.361.170.331.750.38
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W10W12L21W11D10W30W20W02LA·HEG12/05H·KAU19/05A·ŠIA26/05A·TRA30/05A·TRA02/06H·PAN16/06A·DŽI19/06H·SUD23/06A·BAN26/06A·HEG30/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.731.210.861.060.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.641.000.671.000.621.00
vs Weaker (16)1.560.501.620.751.500.25
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.570.4%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's squad is €2m more valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€10m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's attack is €2m more valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€4m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's defence is €1m more valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€4m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
KŽ wins
1
Draws
5
FZV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · H/A from KŽ
DateH/AGameScore
19/05/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs KŽ1-0
31/03/24HKŽ Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-1
24/09/23AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs KŽ0-2
27/06/23HKŽ Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-5
14/05/23AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs KŽ2-1
14/03/23HKŽ Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-1
23/11/22AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs KŽ2-3
11/09/22HKŽ Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-2

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/07/24AŠiauliai Vs KŽ1-0
26/06/24HKŽ Vs TransINVEST Vilnius2-0
23/06/24HKŽ Vs Hegelmann Litauen4-1
19/06/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs KŽ2-2
15/06/24ADainava Vs KŽ0-0
02/06/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs KŽ0-1
29/05/24ANemunas Vs KŽ0-7
25/05/24APanevėžys Vs KŽ0-0
19/05/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs KŽ1-0
12/05/24HKŽ Vs Šiauliai2-1

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/06/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs FZV3-1
26/06/24ABanga Vs FZV0-2
23/06/24HFZV Vs Suduva Marijampole4-0
19/06/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FZV0-4
16/06/24HFZV Vs Panevėžys2-1
02/06/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs FZV1-3
30/05/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs FZV2-1
26/05/24AŠiauliai Vs FZV1-2
19/05/24HFZV Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-0
12/05/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs FZV0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWL1.56
HomeWLWWW1.76
AwayWWDDL1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%52%32%
AVG goals2.722.802.64
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %48%56%40%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.621.641.60
Conceded1.101.161.04
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet32%28%36%
Corners8.0011.005.00
Cards4.004.00-
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.92
HomeDWWWW1.92
AwayLWWWL1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%56%60%
AVG goals3.043.083.00
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %64%72%56%
Over 3.5 %42%52%32%
Scored1.902.001.80
Conceded1.141.081.20
BTTS46%44%48%
Clean Sheet40%48%32%
Corners9.128.509.75
Cards3.503.503.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3679
67%
2.2
7631+45
3.0
78%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.10.9
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
53%
1.9
6040+20
2.8
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.1
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3654
42%
1.5
4340+3
2.3
61%
44%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.21.1
-
4DainavaDainava3645
33%
1.2
3439-5
2.0
53%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
5BangaBanga3643
28%
1.2
3746-9
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.01.3
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3842
26%
1.1
3441-7
2.0
47%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3642
28%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
67%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.4
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3642
31%
1.2
3348-15
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.3
-
9PanevėžysPanevėžys3641
25%
1.1
3440-6
2.1
56%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2220.91.1
-
10TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3638
31%
1.1
3550-15
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.4
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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