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Kauno Žalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 2-0
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Vs
63%
22%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Kauno Žalgiris is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 63% chance of taking the three points. The model rates them highly due to Hegelmann Litauen's poor away form, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per match.

The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The model's selection is a Home win, with a 63% chance of success. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 10.4% of the time.

At home, Kauno Žalgiris has scored an average of 1.86 goals per match, while conceding 1.0. Hegelmann Litauen, on the other hand, has scored 1.0 goals per match away from home, while conceding 1.2.

The model's selection is a Home win, with a 63% chance of success. The model's other selection is Over 1.5, which it believes will occur 81.8% of the time, with a 5% edge. The home win percentage is 63%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 15%.

Results analysis

The win extends Kauno žalgiris' run, their fourth in a row, following a 2-0 victory over Hegelmann Litauen. The final score was a 2-0 home win, which is also the actual result. The model correctly predicted the favoured outcome, backing the home win with a 63% probability. The model's selection was correct, as the home team secured a convincing 2-0 win. The suggested picks largely came in, with the model's selection of "Over 1.5" goals hitting, having a 81.8% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
62.8%
Avg Implied 60.0% · @ 1.50
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.54
10Bet
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Draw✗ Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.83
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.20
Unibet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
4.00
Dafabet
3.90
Hegelmann Litauen win✗ Miss
15.2%
Avg Implied 16.5% · @ 5.44
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
6.25
1xBet
6.09
Marathonbet
5.85
William Hil
5.50
10Bet
5.50

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W00D30W40W30W30W40W00D10W05LH·PAN02/11H·BAN08/11A·SVE28/04A·FK 19/05A·BFA23/06H·PAN11/07H·ŠIA18/07A·KI 21/07H·KI 29/07A·DIN04/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.670.932.000.871.331.00
vs Stronger (1)0.005.00--0.005.00
vs Similar (16)1.561.002.000.891.001.14
vs Weaker (13)1.920.542.000.831.860.29
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W13L21W41W02L11D15L20W23L12LA·DAI27/10A·FK 02/11H·SUD08/11A·TAU21/04A·TRA20/05A·PAN04/07A·SUD20/07A·ŠIA24/07H·FK 27/07H·TRA02/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.272.001.311.061.24
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.411.552.201.500.751.58
vs Weaker (8)1.620.501.330.671.800.40
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.8%
@ 1.24+8.3%
Under 1.5
18.2%
@ 3.43-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
Betfair
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
1xBet
3.42
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.9%
@ 1.82+8.4%
Under 2.5
41.1%
@ 1.86-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.97
Pinnacle
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Betfair
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Under
Unibet
2.04
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.5%
@ 2.97+5.8%
Under 3.5
63.5%
@ 1.32-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.05
Under
Unibet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.9%
@ 1.90+6.9%
No
45.1%
@ 1.76-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
1.97
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
No
William Hil
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Unibet
1.79
1xBet
1.78
10Bet
1.77

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%@ 7.01+4.3%
2-0 ✓
10.4%@ 6.29+3.6%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.16+4.0%
1-0
9.0%@ 5.73+1.5%
3-0
7.3%@ 9.88+3.0%
3-1
6.9%@ 11.53+3.2%
0-0
5.7%@ 9.49+1.2%
2-2
4.7%@ 16.69+2.2%
Kauno Žalgiris goals ↓
Hegelmann Litauen goals →
01234
05.7%3.6%2.1%0.7%0.2%
19.0%10%4.5%1.4%0.3%
210%9.9%4.7%1.5%0.4%
37.3%6.9%3.3%1.1%0.3%
43.8%3.6%1.7%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris goals (down), columns = Hegelmann Litauen goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Kauno Žalgiris is 1.45 points better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 0.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.75 goals better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Kauno Žalgiris is 1.80 goals better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D20W30W10W20W20W00D00D02LH·PAN02/11H·BAN08/11A·SVE28/04A·FK 19/05A·BFA23/06H·PAN11/07H·ŠIA18/07A·KI 21/07H·KI 29/07A·DIN04/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.300.800.130.800.47
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (16)0.620.380.670.110.570.71
vs Weaker (13)1.080.081.000.171.140.00
Clean sheet %77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L00D30W00D00D03L20W11D01LA·DAI27/10A·FK 02/11H·SUD08/11A·TAU21/04A·TRA20/05A·PAN04/07A·SUD20/07A·ŠIA24/07H·FK 27/07H·TRA02/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.370.920.380.590.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.640.501.000.500.330.50
vs Weaker (8)1.000.000.670.001.200.00
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D10W10W20W10W20W00D10W03LH·PAN02/11H·BAN08/11A·SVE28/04A·FK 19/05A·BFA23/06H·PAN11/07H·ŠIA18/07A·KI 21/07H·KI 29/07A·DIN04/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.631.200.730.530.53
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (16)0.940.621.330.780.430.43
vs Weaker (13)0.850.461.000.670.710.29
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L21W11D02L11D12L00D12L11DA·DAI27/10A·FK 02/11H·SUD08/11A·TAU21/04A·TRA20/05A·PAN04/07A·SUD20/07A·ŠIA24/07H·FK 27/07H·TRA02/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.901.080.920.470.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.771.051.201.000.421.08
vs Weaker (8)0.620.500.670.670.600.40
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.8%1.24
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
+8.3%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Kauno Žalgiris's squad is €4m more valuable than Hegelmann Litauen's (€10m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Kauno Žalgiris's attack is €2m more valuable than Hegelmann Litauen's (€4m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Kauno Žalgiris and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Kauno Žalgiris's defence is €2m more valuable than Hegelmann Litauen's (€4m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
KŽ wins
2
Draws
1
HL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kauno Žalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen · H/A from KŽ
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs KŽ1-1
27/08/25HKŽ Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-1
19/06/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs KŽ1-2
16/04/25HKŽ Vs Hegelmann Litauen3-1
24/08/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs KŽ1-1
23/06/24HKŽ Vs Hegelmann Litauen4-1
28/04/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs KŽ0-1
09/03/24HKŽ Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-2

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/26ADinamo Zagreb Vs KŽ5-0
29/07/26HKŽ Vs KI Klaksvik1-0
21/07/26AKI Klaksvik Vs KŽ0-0
18/07/26HKŽ Vs Šiauliai4-0
11/07/26HKŽ Vs Panevėžys3-0
23/06/26ABFA Vs KŽ0-3
19/05/26AFK Trakai Vs KŽ0-4
28/04/26ASveikata Vs KŽ0-3
08/11/25HKŽ Vs Banga0-0
02/11/25HKŽ Vs Panevėžys3-2

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/08/26HHL Vs TransINVEST Vilnius1-2
27/07/26HHL Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-3
24/07/26AŠiauliai Vs HL0-2
20/07/26ASuduva Marijampole Vs HL5-1
04/07/26APanevėžys Vs HL1-1
20/05/26ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs HL2-0
21/04/26ATauras Vs HL1-4
08/11/25HHL Vs Suduva Marijampole2-1
02/11/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL3-1
27/10/25ADainava Vs HL0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWL2.04
HomeWDWWW2.17
AwayWWWDL1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%67%54%
AVG goals2.582.832.35
Over 1.5 %72%79%65%
Over 2.5 %56%67%46%
Over 3.5 %26%29%23%
Scored1.822.171.50
Conceded0.760.670.85
BTTS40%42%38%
Clean Sheet46%46%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.68
HomeDWWLL1.91
AwayWLDLW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%59%46%
AVG goals2.823.002.68
Over 1.5 %76%82%71%
Over 2.5 %52%64%43%
Over 3.5 %30%32%29%
Scored1.561.821.36
Conceded1.261.181.32
BTTS48%64%36%
Clean Sheet32%23%39%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole616
83%
2.7
142+12
2.7
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2122.30.3
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius612
67%
2.0
138+5
3.5
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.21.3
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris511
60%
2.2
101+9
2.2
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4242.00.2
-
4PanevėžysPanevėžys811
38%
1.4
98+1
2.1
88%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.11.0
-
5TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius811
38%
1.4
910-1
2.4
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.2
-
6BangaBanga811
38%
1.4
1012-2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.21.5
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai78
29%
1.1
811-3
2.7
71%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.6
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen86
12%
0.8
1016-6
3.2
100%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.22.0
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai83
12%
0.4
621-15
3.4
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2230.82.6
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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