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Kauno Žalgiris vs Panevėžys Result & Analysis

Date: 04/05/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 0-1
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Vs
30%
30%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris win✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✓ Hit
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D12L00D31W20W31W23L30W01LH·ŠIA10/03H·FK 14/03A·PAN19/03A·DAI02/04H·DŽI05/04A·BAN09/04H·FK 15/04A·HEG19/04H·SUD23/04A·ŠIA29/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.871.730.671.671.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.081.150.500.671.571.57
vs Weaker (17)2.180.652.560.671.750.62
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W20W21W31W42W00D00D30W20W31WA·FK 12/03A·SUD15/03H·KAU19/03H·ŠIA01/04A·HEG04/04H·FK 08/04H·DAI15/04A·DŽI19/04H·BAN24/04H·FK 29/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.901.670.871.530.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.620.961.670.831.581.08
vs Weaker (6)1.500.671.671.001.330.33
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.7%
Under 2.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-1 ✓
10.2%
0-0
9.8%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.3%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
5.3%
Kauno Žalgiris goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
01234
09.8%10%7.7%3.4%1.2%
18.3%14%8.6%3.9%1.3%
25.3%7.2%4.8%2.2%0.7%
32.0%2.7%1.8%0.8%0.3%
40.6%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.78 points worse than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 2.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.08 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.78).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Be1 NFA
1.00
Šiauliai
1.00
Dainava
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.72 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L10W00D01L20W20W10W00D00DH·ŠIA10/03H·FK 14/03A·PAN19/03A·DAI02/04H·DŽI05/04A·BAN09/04H·FK 15/04A·HEG19/04H·SUD23/04A·ŠIA29/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.330.600.400.800.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.540.310.330.330.710.29
vs Weaker (17)0.820.350.780.440.880.25
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W01L00D12L00D00D10W10W01LA·FK 12/03A·SUD15/03H·KAU19/03H·ŠIA01/04A·HEG04/04H·FK 08/04H·DAI15/04A·DŽI19/04H·BAN24/04H·FK 29/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.430.670.400.800.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.670.460.500.420.830.50
vs Weaker (6)1.000.331.330.330.670.33
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W02L00D30W00D11D13L30W01LH·ŠIA10/03H·FK 14/03A·PAN19/03A·DAI02/04H·DŽI05/04A·BAN09/04H·FK 15/04A·HEG19/04H·SUD23/04A·ŠIA29/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.531.130.270.870.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.540.850.170.330.861.29
vs Weaker (17)1.350.291.780.220.880.38
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W20W31W30W00D00D20W10W30WA·FK 12/03A·SUD15/03H·KAU19/03H·ŠIA01/04A·HEG04/04H·FK 08/04H·DAI15/04A·DŽI19/04H·BAN24/04H·FK 29/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.471.000.470.730.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.960.501.170.420.750.58
vs Weaker (6)0.500.330.330.670.670.00
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's squad is €4m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€10m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's attack is €2m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€4m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's defence is €2m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€4m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
KŽ wins
1
Draws
3
PAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kauno Žalgiris vs Panevėžys · H/A from KŽ
DateH/AGameScore
19/03/23APanevėžys Vs KŽ2-1
05/11/22HKŽ Vs Panevėžys0-0
23/07/22APanevėžys Vs KŽ2-1
30/04/22HKŽ Vs Panevėžys2-1
11/03/22APanevėžys Vs KŽ1-0

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/23AŠiauliai Vs KŽ1-0
23/04/23HKŽ Vs Suduva Marijampole3-0
19/04/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs KŽ3-2
15/04/23HKŽ Vs FK Trakai3-1
09/04/23ABanga Vs KŽ0-2
05/04/23HKŽ Vs Džiugas Telšiai3-1
02/04/23ADainava Vs KŽ0-0
19/03/23APanevėžys Vs KŽ2-1
14/03/23HKŽ Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-1
10/03/23HKŽ Vs Šiauliai0-0

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/23HPAN Vs FK Trakai3-1
24/04/23HPAN Vs Banga2-0
19/04/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs PAN0-3
15/04/23HPAN Vs Dainava0-0
08/04/23HPAN Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-0
04/04/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs PAN2-4
01/04/23HPAN Vs Šiauliai3-1
19/03/23HPAN Vs Kauno Žalgiris2-1
15/03/23ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN0-2
12/03/23AFK Trakai Vs PAN0-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL1.67
HomeDDWWW1.75
AwayLDWLL1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%46%48%
AVG goals2.532.502.56
Over 1.5 %78%75%80%
Over 2.5 %51%54%48%
Over 3.5 %22%29%16%
Scored1.511.581.44
Conceded1.020.921.12
BTTS51%50%52%
Clean Sheet35%38%32%
Corners7.509.006.00
Cards3.003.00-
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWW1.88
HomeWDDWW2.08
AwayWWWWW1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %55%64%46%
AVG goals2.352.362.33
Over 1.5 %69%72%67%
Over 2.5 %49%52%46%
Over 3.5 %20%20%21%
Scored1.571.601.54
Conceded0.780.760.79
BTTS43%48%38%
Clean Sheet47%40%54%
Corners9.504.0015.00
Cards3.00-3.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PanevėžysPanevėžys3687
72%
2.4
6414+50
2.2
67%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.80.4
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3675
64%
2.1
6728+39
2.6
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.90.8
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3659
42%
1.6
6140+21
2.8
78%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.71.1
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3659
50%
1.6
6243+19
2.9
72%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.2
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
69%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.31.0
-
6BangaBanga3636
28%
1.0
2252-30
2.1
58%
31%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.61.4
-
7Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3635
28%
1.0
2860-32
2.4
72%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.81.7
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3832
16%
0.8
2855-27
2.2
68%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.71.4
-
9DainavaDainava3631
19%
0.9
2540-15
1.8
56%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai3625
14%
0.7
2662-36
2.4
64%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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