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Kauno Žalgiris vs Panevėžys Result & Analysis

Date: 07/04/2024
Time: 15:25
Final 0-1
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Vs
34%
30%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✓ Hit
36.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W11D40W31W42W11D12L21W12L01LA·DŽI21/10H·PAN25/10H·HEG29/10A·FK 05/11H·HEG12/11A·BAN02/03H·HEG09/03H·TRA12/03A·ŠIA17/03H·FK 31/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.271.691.311.501.21
vs Stronger (2)1.002.501.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (13)1.691.622.121.751.001.40
vs Weaker (15)1.600.801.290.711.880.88
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D11D21W00D00D00D01L01L24LA·HEG21/10A·KAU25/10A·ŠIA30/10A·DAI05/11H·DŽI12/11A·DŽI02/03H·DAI10/03A·SUD13/03H·BAN16/03A·HEG30/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.571.600.471.130.67
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (20)1.400.701.700.601.100.80
vs Weaker (8)1.500.121.500.001.500.25
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.9%
Under 2.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.1%
0-1 ✓
9.6%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.3%
Kauno Žalgiris goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
01234
010%9.6%6.7%2.8%0.9%
19.2%14%8.0%3.3%1.0%
26.3%7.7%4.8%2.0%0.6%
32.5%3.1%1.9%0.8%0.2%
40.7%0.9%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.19
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.50
Dainava
1.25
Banga
1.19
Šiauliai
1.17
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
1.14
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.06
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.36 points better than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.67
Kauno Žalgiris
1.19
Šiauliai
1.08
Banga
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.97
Dainava
0.94
Panevėžys
0.94
Džiugas Telšiai
0.92
Suduva Marijampole
0.89
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.25 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86
Be1 NFA
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.08
Dainava
1.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Panevėžys
1.11
Banga
1.28
Džiugas Telšiai
1.33
Šiauliai
1.39
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.39
Kauno Žalgiris and Panevėžys are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D10W20W20W00D10W00D10W01LA·DŽI21/10H·PAN25/10H·HEG29/10A·FK 05/11H·HEG12/11A·BAN02/03H·HEG09/03H·TRA12/03A·ŠIA17/03H·FK 31/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.570.690.560.640.57
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (13)0.690.540.750.620.600.40
vs Weaker (15)0.730.400.710.430.750.38
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L01L00D00D00D00D00D12LA·HEG21/10A·KAU25/10A·ŠIA30/10A·DAI05/11H·DŽI12/11A·DŽI02/03H·DAI10/03A·SUD13/03H·BAN16/03A·HEG30/03
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.270.670.130.400.40
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (20)0.600.300.800.200.400.40
vs Weaker (8)0.500.120.500.000.500.25
Clean sheet %77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D30W11D22D11D02L21W02L00DA·DŽI21/10H·PAN25/10H·HEG29/10A·FK 05/11H·HEG12/11A·BAN02/03H·HEG09/03H·TRA12/03A·ŠIA17/03H·FK 31/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.701.000.750.860.64
vs Stronger (2)1.000.501.001.001.000.00
vs Similar (13)1.001.081.381.120.401.00
vs Weaker (15)0.870.400.570.291.120.50
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D10W20W00D00D00D01L01L12LA·HEG21/10A·KAU25/10A·ŠIA30/10A·DAI05/11H·DŽI12/11A·DŽI02/03H·DAI10/03A·SUD13/03H·BAN16/03A·HEG30/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.300.930.330.730.27
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (20)0.800.400.900.400.700.40
vs Weaker (8)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's squad is €4m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€10m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's attack is €2m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€4m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's defence is €2m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€4m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
KŽ wins
2
Draws
5
PAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kauno Žalgiris vs Panevėžys · H/A from KŽ
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/23HKŽ Vs Panevėžys1-1
07/07/23APanevėžys Vs KŽ3-0
04/05/23HKŽ Vs Panevėžys0-1
19/03/23APanevėžys Vs KŽ2-1
05/11/22HKŽ Vs Panevėžys0-0
23/07/22APanevėžys Vs KŽ2-1
30/04/22HKŽ Vs Panevėžys2-1
11/03/22APanevėžys Vs KŽ1-0

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/03/24HKŽ Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-1
17/03/24AŠiauliai Vs KŽ2-1
12/03/24HKŽ Vs TransINVEST Vilnius2-1
09/03/24HKŽ Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-2
02/03/24ABanga Vs KŽ1-1
12/11/23HKŽ Vs Hegelmann Litauen4-2
05/11/23AFK Trakai Vs KŽ1-3
29/10/23HKŽ Vs Hegelmann Litauen4-0
25/10/23HKŽ Vs Panevėžys1-1
21/10/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs KŽ0-2

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/03/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs PAN4-2
16/03/24HPAN Vs Banga0-1
13/03/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN1-0
10/03/24HPAN Vs Dainava0-0
02/03/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs PAN0-0
12/11/23HPAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai0-0
05/11/23ADainava Vs PAN1-2
30/10/23AŠiauliai Vs PAN1-1
25/10/23AKauno Žalgiris Vs PAN1-1
21/10/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs PAN0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.58
HomeWWLWL1.76
AwayWWWDL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%36%
AVG goals2.722.642.80
Over 1.5 %78%68%88%
Over 2.5 %48%52%44%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.601.641.56
Conceded1.121.001.24
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet32%36%28%
Corners8.0011.005.00
Cards4.004.00-
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLL2.08
HomeWWDDL2.21
AwayDWDLL1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%62%58%
AVG goals2.102.122.08
Over 1.5 %60%67%54%
Over 2.5 %40%42%38%
Over 3.5 %20%25%15%
Scored1.541.621.46
Conceded0.560.500.62
BTTS34%38%31%
Clean Sheet60%58%62%
Corners8.007.009.00
Cards5.758.503.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3679
67%
2.2
7631+45
3.0
78%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.10.9
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
53%
1.9
6040+20
2.8
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.1
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3654
42%
1.5
4340+3
2.3
61%
44%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.21.1
-
4DainavaDainava3645
33%
1.2
3439-5
2.0
53%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
5BangaBanga3643
28%
1.2
3746-9
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.01.3
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3842
26%
1.1
3441-7
2.0
47%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3642
28%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
67%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.4
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3642
31%
1.2
3348-15
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.3
-
9PanevėžysPanevėžys3641
25%
1.1
3440-6
2.1
56%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2220.91.1
-
10TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3638
31%
1.1
3550-15
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.4
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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