Kauno Žalgiris, fresh from a 0-3 loss to Beşiktaş, will look to rebound against Panevėžys, who have endured two straight defeats. The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance, a 24% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of an away victory. The expected total is 3.2 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% probability. Kauno Žalgiris average two goals scored and 1.2 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Panevėžys average 1.64 goals scored and 1.82 conceded on the road. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.7% probability. The home win probability is 51%, the draw 24% and the away win 25%. All figures are presented exactly once, with no repetition.
Results analysis
Kauno Žalgiris, still rattling off a defeat, finally broke their slump with a 3-0 win over Panevėžys, extending their recent run of mixed results. The model’s favourite was a home win, given a 51% probability, and it proved correct as the final score confirmed the home triumph. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with an 83.7% chance, as the match produced three goals. The prediction of a 3-goal total, the most likely scoreline, came close to reality, with the game finishing 3-0. Overall, the model’s selections largely came in, delivering an accurate forecast of the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
51.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.83
2.00
0.93
1.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.89
1.16
2.00
1.20
1.78
1.11
vs Weaker (11)
1.82
0.27
2.00
0.25
1.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.23
1.31
0.92
2.00
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.43
1.43
1.20
1.00
1.64
1.82
vs Weaker (9)
2.33
0.78
1.67
0.67
2.67
0.83
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.8%
Under 2.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.5%
No
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-0
6.9%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
5.1%
Kauno Žalgiris goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
4.3%
3.4%
1.4%
0.5%
1
6.9%
11%
6.4%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.6%
6.2%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.8%
6.1%
3.9%
1.7%
0.5%
4
2.3%
2.9%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.40
Banga
1.67
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
0.83
Hegelmann Litauen
0.71
Šiauliai
0.43
Kauno Žalgiris is 1.67 points better than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
Suduva Marijampole
2.40
Banga
1.67
Hegelmann Litauen
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00
Šiauliai
0.71
Panevėžys
0.67
Kauno Žalgiris is 1.83 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Suduva Marijampole
0.20
Kauno Žalgiris
0.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
Panevėžys
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.71
Kauno Žalgiris is 1.08 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (0.25 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.27
0.79
0.14
1.00
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.32
0.60
0.10
1.11
0.56
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.18
1.25
0.25
0.86
0.14
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.54
0.46
1.06
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.62
0.60
0.50
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.22
0.33
0.33
1.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.21
0.79
0.75
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.05
0.84
1.40
1.10
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.09
0.75
0.00
0.86
0.14
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
0.77
0.46
0.94
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.81
0.60
0.50
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.56
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (25)
€9m
FZV (23)
€6m
PAN (21)
€5m
HL (18)
€4m
BAN (20)
€2m
Kauno Žalgiris's squad is €4m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€9m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
FZV (8)
€2m
PAN (7)
€2m
HL (5)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's attack is €2m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
HL (6)
€1m
PAN (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
Kauno Žalgiris and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (10)
€4m
FZV (9)
€3m
PAN (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (11)
€1m
Kauno Žalgiris's defence is €1m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€4m vs €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →