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Kauno Žalgiris vs Panevėžys Result & Analysis

Date: 11/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 3-0
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Vs
51%
24%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Kauno Žalgiris, fresh from a 0-3 loss to Beşiktaş, will look to rebound against Panevėžys, who have endured two straight defeats. The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance, a 24% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of an away victory. The expected total is 3.2 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% probability. Kauno Žalgiris average two goals scored and 1.2 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Panevėžys average 1.64 goals scored and 1.82 conceded on the road. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.7% probability. The home win probability is 51%, the draw 24% and the away win 25%. All figures are presented exactly once, with no repetition.

Results analysis

Kauno Žalgiris, still rattling off a defeat, finally broke their slump with a 3-0 win over Panevėžys, extending their recent run of mixed results. The model’s favourite was a home win, given a 51% probability, and it proved correct as the final score confirmed the home triumph. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with an 83.7% chance, as the match produced three goals. The prediction of a 3-goal total, the most likely scoreline, came close to reality, with the game finishing 3-0. Overall, the model’s selections largely came in, delivering an accurate forecast of the outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
51.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W31W12L01L32W00D30W40W30WA·HEG01/10A·DAI04/10H·ŠIA17/10H·FK 22/10A·SUD27/10H·PAN02/11H·BAN08/11A·SVE28/04A·FK 19/05A·BFA23/06
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.870.832.000.931.750.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.891.162.001.201.781.11
vs Weaker (11)1.820.272.000.251.710.29
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D22D01L41W23L31W20W30W12L11DA·ŠIA05/10A·BAN18/10H·FK 22/10A·DŽI26/10A·KAU02/11H·FK 08/11A·RAD29/04A·ATM20/05A·MIN23/06H·HEG04/07
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.231.310.922.001.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.431.431.201.001.641.82
vs Weaker (9)2.330.781.670.672.670.83
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.8%
Under 2.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.5%
No
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-0
6.9%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
5.1%
Kauno Žalgiris goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
01234
05.1%4.3%3.4%1.4%0.5%
16.9%11%6.4%2.8%0.9%
27.5%9.6%6.2%2.6%0.8%
34.8%6.1%3.9%1.7%0.5%
42.3%2.9%1.9%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.40
Banga
1.67
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
0.83
Hegelmann Litauen
0.71
Šiauliai
0.43
Kauno Žalgiris is 1.67 points better than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
Suduva Marijampole
2.40
Banga
1.67
Hegelmann Litauen
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00
Šiauliai
0.71
Panevėžys
0.67
Kauno Žalgiris is 1.83 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 0.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Suduva Marijampole
0.20
Kauno Žalgiris
0.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
Panevėžys
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.71
Kauno Žalgiris is 1.08 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (0.25 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W10W00D00D11D00D20W30W10WA·HEG01/10A·DAI04/10H·ŠIA17/10H·FK 22/10A·SUD27/10H·PAN02/11H·BAN08/11A·SVE28/04A·FK 19/05A·BFA23/06
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.270.790.141.000.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.840.320.600.101.110.56
vs Weaker (11)1.000.181.250.250.860.14
Clean sheet %77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D21W00D30W11D21W00D10W01L00DA·ŠIA05/10A·BAN18/10H·FK 22/10A·DŽI26/10A·KAU02/11H·FK 08/11A·RAD29/04A·ATM20/05A·MIN23/06H·HEG04/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.500.540.461.060.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.670.620.600.500.730.73
vs Weaker (9)1.220.220.330.331.670.17
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D21W12L01L21W00D10W10W20WA·HEG01/10A·DAI04/10H·ŠIA17/10H·FK 22/10A·SUD27/10H·PAN02/11H·BAN08/11A·SVE28/04A·FK 19/05A·BFA23/06
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.571.210.790.750.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.050.841.401.100.670.56
vs Weaker (11)0.820.090.750.000.860.14
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D01L01L11D12L10W20W20W11D11DA·ŠIA05/10A·BAN18/10H·FK 22/10A·DŽI26/10A·KAU02/11H·FK 08/11A·RAD29/04A·ATM20/05A·MIN23/06H·HEG04/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.730.770.460.940.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.760.810.600.500.911.09
vs Weaker (9)1.110.561.330.331.000.67
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (25)
€9m
FZV (23)
€6m
PAN (21)
€5m
HL (18)
€4m
BAN (20)
€2m
Kauno Žalgiris's squad is €4m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€9m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
FZV (8)
€2m
PAN (7)
€2m
HL (5)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's attack is €2m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€4m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
HL (6)
€1m
PAN (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
Kauno Žalgiris and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (10)
€4m
FZV (9)
€3m
PAN (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (11)
€1m
Kauno Žalgiris's defence is €1m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€4m vs €2m).

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
KŽ wins
2
Draws
2
PAN wins

Head-to-head

Kauno Žalgiris vs Panevėžys · H/A from KŽ
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/25HKŽ Vs Panevėžys3-2
24/08/25APanevėžys Vs KŽ1-0
24/06/25HKŽ Vs Panevėžys3-0
19/04/25APanevėžys Vs KŽ0-2
05/10/24HKŽ Vs Panevėžys0-0
20/07/24APanevėžys Vs KŽ1-2
25/05/24APanevėžys Vs KŽ0-0
07/04/24HKŽ Vs Panevėžys0-1

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/06/26ABFA Vs KŽ0-3
19/05/26AFK Trakai Vs KŽ0-4
28/04/26ASveikata Vs KŽ0-3
08/11/25HKŽ Vs Banga0-0
02/11/25HKŽ Vs Panevėžys3-2
27/10/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs KŽ1-0
22/10/25HKŽ Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-2
17/10/25HKŽ Vs Šiauliai3-1
04/10/25ADainava Vs KŽ0-1
01/10/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs KŽ1-1

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/07/26HPAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-1
23/06/26AMinija Vs PAN2-1
20/05/26AAtmosfera Vs PAN0-3
29/04/26ARadviliškis Vs PAN0-2
08/11/25HPAN Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius3-1
02/11/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs PAN3-2
26/10/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs PAN1-4
22/10/25HPAN Vs FK Trakai0-1
18/10/25ABanga Vs PAN2-2
05/10/25AŠiauliai Vs PAN3-3

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.96
HomeDWLWD1.79
AwayWLWWW2.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%54%62%
AVG goals2.642.922.38
Over 1.5 %72%79%65%
Over 2.5 %56%67%46%
Over 3.5 %26%29%23%
Scored1.821.961.69
Conceded0.820.960.69
BTTS46%50%42%
Clean Sheet40%33%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.58
HomeWWLWD1.57
AwayWLWWL1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%48%44%
AVG goals3.002.223.67
Over 1.5 %78%61%93%
Over 2.5 %56%35%74%
Over 3.5 %34%22%44%
Scored1.841.262.33
Conceded1.160.961.33
BTTS52%35%67%
Clean Sheet36%43%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole513
80%
2.6
121+11
2.6
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.40.2
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius512
80%
2.4
136+7
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2232.61.2
-
3TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius811
38%
1.4
910-1
2.4
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
4Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris410
75%
2.5
101+9
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4242.50.2
-
5BangaBanga610
50%
1.7
109+1
3.2
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.71.5
-
6Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
7PanevėžysPanevėžys65
17%
0.8
48-4
2.0
83%
17%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.71.3
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen75
14%
0.7
814-6
3.1
100%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.12.0
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai73
14%
0.4
519-14
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.7
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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