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Kauno Žalgiris vs Šiauliai Result & Analysis

Date: 02/07/2023
Time: 14:55
Final 3-2
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Vs
41%
30%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Kauno Žalgiris and Šiauliai face a tightly balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 41% for Kauno Žalgiris, 30% for a draw and 29% for Šiauliai. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, with the most likely total of two goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.2% chance. Kauno Žalgiris, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Šiauliai, on the road, averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.09 conceded versus comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 77.9% probability and Over 1.5 with 70.4%. The match remains uncertain, with no clear favourite beyond the predicted home win, and each outcome’s probability laid out: 41% home, 30% draw, 29% away. The suggested picks, with their respective percentages, give a full view of the likely dynamics.

Results analysis

Kauno Žalgiris, coming off a draw in their last five, extended their run with a 3-2 win over Šiauliai, who were after two straight defeats. The match delivered a total of five goals, far exceeding the model’s expected 2.4 and the most likely 2-goal outcome. The pre-match favourite was Home win, with a 41% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The suggested picks also played out: Under 3.5, with a 77.9% chance, missed as the game went over; Over 1.5, at 70.4%, hit as both sides scored. The final score confirmed the home team’s victory.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai win✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W01L01L12L10W00D00D11D11D25LH·SUD23/04A·ŠIA29/04H·PAN04/05A·FK 14/05H·DAI20/05H·BAN28/05A·DŽI02/06A·FK 06/06H·SUD22/06H·FK 27/06
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.001.530.881.461.15
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.921.540.621.251.402.00
vs Weaker (17)1.940.592.330.561.500.62
Clean sheet %40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W32W00D20W22D11D11D20W13LH·KAU29/04A·SUD02/05A·HEG12/05H·PAN21/05H·DAI27/05A·FK 04/06A·DŽI07/06H·BAN10/06H·FK 24/06H·HEG28/06
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.871.620.441.071.36
vs Stronger (4)1.501.752.000.001.003.50
vs Similar (23)1.350.831.500.581.181.09
vs Weaker (3)1.330.002.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.0%
Under 2.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
10.4%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.4%
Kauno Žalgiris goals ↓
Šiauliai goals →
01234
010%8.6%5.4%1.9%0.5%
111%14%7.0%2.5%0.7%
27.8%8.5%4.6%1.7%0.5%
33.4%3.7%2.0%0.7%0.2%
41.1%1.2%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris goals (down), columns = Šiauliai goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
Kauno Žalgiris and Šiauliai are level in average points per game (both 1.64).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.36 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Be1 NFA
1.00
Šiauliai
1.00
Dainava
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.11 goals worse than Šiauliai in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D01L10W00D00D11D00D03LH·SUD23/04A·ŠIA29/04H·PAN04/05A·FK 14/05H·DAI20/05H·BAN28/05A·DŽI02/06A·FK 06/06H·SUD22/06H·FK 27/06
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.330.470.410.850.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.460.460.250.620.800.20
vs Weaker (17)0.760.240.670.220.880.25
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W22D00D10W21W00D01L10W11DH·KAU29/04A·SUD02/05A·HEG12/05H·PAN21/05H·DAI27/05A·FK 04/06A·DŽI07/06H·BAN10/06H·FK 24/06H·HEG28/06
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.370.880.120.710.64
vs Stronger (4)1.001.001.000.001.002.00
vs Similar (23)0.740.300.750.170.730.45
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.500.000.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L01L11D00D00D00D00D11D22DH·SUD23/04A·ŠIA29/04H·PAN04/05A·FK 14/05H·DAI20/05H·BAN28/05A·DŽI02/06A·FK 06/06H·SUD22/06H·FK 27/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.671.060.470.620.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.461.080.380.620.601.80
vs Weaker (17)1.180.351.670.330.620.38
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D10W00D10W01L11D10W10W02LH·KAU29/04A·SUD02/05A·HEG12/05H·PAN21/05H·DAI27/05A·FK 04/06A·DŽI07/06H·BAN10/06H·FK 24/06H·HEG28/06
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.750.310.360.71
vs Stronger (4)0.500.751.000.000.001.50
vs Similar (23)0.610.520.750.420.450.64
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.500.000.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.570.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's squad is €4m more valuable than Šiauliai's (€10m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's attack is €2m more valuable than Šiauliai's (€4m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris and Šiauliai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's defence is €1m more valuable than Šiauliai's (€4m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
KŽ wins
2
Draws
1
ŠIA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kauno Žalgiris vs Šiauliai · H/A from KŽ
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/23AŠiauliai Vs KŽ1-0
10/03/23HKŽ Vs Šiauliai0-0
23/10/22HKŽ Vs Šiauliai1-0
28/08/22AŠiauliai Vs KŽ0-3
22/06/22AŠiauliai Vs KŽ0-1
10/04/22HKŽ Vs Šiauliai0-0

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/06/23HKŽ Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-5
22/06/23HKŽ Vs Suduva Marijampole1-1
06/06/23AFK Trakai Vs KŽ1-1
02/06/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs KŽ0-0
28/05/23HKŽ Vs Banga0-0
20/05/23HKŽ Vs Dainava1-0
14/05/23AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs KŽ2-1
04/05/23HKŽ Vs Panevėžys0-1
29/04/23AŠiauliai Vs KŽ1-0
23/04/23HKŽ Vs Suduva Marijampole3-0

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/06/23HŠIA Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-3
24/06/23HŠIA Vs FK Trakai2-0
10/06/23HŠIA Vs Banga1-1
07/06/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs ŠIA1-1
04/06/23AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs ŠIA2-2
27/05/23HŠIA Vs Dainava2-0
21/05/23HŠIA Vs Panevėžys0-0
12/05/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs ŠIA2-3
02/05/23ASuduva Marijampole Vs ŠIA0-2
29/04/23HŠIA Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDDL1.60
HomeLWDDL1.62
AwayLLLDD1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%42%46%
AVG goals2.502.462.54
Over 1.5 %74%69%79%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %22%27%17%
Scored1.441.461.42
Conceded1.061.001.12
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet36%38%33%
Corners7.509.006.00
Cards3.003.00-
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDWL1.62
HomeDWDWL1.81
AwayWWWDD1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%50%38%
AVG goals2.302.192.42
Over 1.5 %68%69%67%
Over 2.5 %42%35%50%
Over 3.5 %24%19%29%
Scored1.261.351.17
Conceded1.040.851.25
BTTS42%35%50%
Clean Sheet42%50%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PanevėžysPanevėžys3687
72%
2.4
6414+50
2.2
67%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.80.4
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3675
64%
2.1
6728+39
2.6
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.90.8
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3659
42%
1.6
6140+21
2.8
78%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.71.1
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3659
50%
1.6
6243+19
2.9
72%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.2
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
69%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.31.0
-
6BangaBanga3636
28%
1.0
2252-30
2.1
58%
31%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.61.4
-
7Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3635
28%
1.0
2860-32
2.4
72%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.81.7
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3832
16%
0.8
2855-27
2.2
68%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.71.4
-
9DainavaDainava3631
19%
0.9
2540-15
1.8
56%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai3625
14%
0.7
2662-36
2.4
64%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
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Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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