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Kauno Žalgiris vs Šiauliai Result & Analysis

Date: 12/05/2024
Time: 15:25
Final 2-1
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Vs
49%
27%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Kauno Žalgiris are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model picking a home win with a 49% probability, a draw at 27% and an away win at 24%. The expected total goals hover around 2.7, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 13% chance, though the final result last week saw Kauno Žalgiris edge Šiauliai 2-1. Kauno Žalgiris, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, while Šiauliai on the road average 1.09 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 76.1% and Under 3.5 goals at 71.7%. The home side’s recent form shows a draw, win, loss, draw, loss, coming off a 0-0 draw with Banga, while Šiauliai’s last five feature two straight defeats and a 1-2 loss to Suduva Marijampole. These figures paint a balanced contest, but the slight edge for Kauno Žalgiris remains.

Results analysis

Kauno Žalgiris, fresh from a draw, kept their winning momentum at home, while Šiauliai, still nursing two consecutive defeats, struggled on the road. The model’s favourite, a home win with a 49% probability, proved accurate as Kauno Žalgiris edged Šiauliai 2-1. The predicted 2-goal total materialised, with the most likely scoreline of 1-1, 1-0 or 2-1 all within reach. The model’s selections also hit: Over 1.5 goals came in at 76.1% confidence, and Under 3.5 goals at 71.7% also succeeded. Overall, the Pythia predictions delivered a correct outcome and most of the suggested picks.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
48.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai win✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L01L01L30W10W21W03L10W23L50WA·ŠIA17/03H·FK 31/03H·PAN07/04H·DŽI10/04H·DAI14/04H·SUD20/04H·BAN24/04A·HEG28/04A·TRA02/05A·GAR07/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.131.621.122.001.14
vs Stronger (2)1.002.501.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (13)1.541.151.711.141.331.17
vs Weaker (15)2.130.931.621.002.710.86
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W01L03L11D12L10W01L10W11D40WH·KAU17/03H·TRA30/03A·FK 07/04H·PAN10/04A·DŽI14/04H·DAI20/04H·SUD23/04A·BAN28/04H·HEG01/05A·TAU07/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.230.930.871.331.60
vs Stronger (3)0.671.670.000.001.002.50
vs Similar (23)1.091.351.081.081.091.64
vs Weaker (4)1.750.250.500.003.000.50
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.3%
Under 2.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.3%
Under 3.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
9.8%
2-1 ✓
9.5%
2-0
8.8%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
6.4%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.1%
Kauno Žalgiris goals ↓
Šiauliai goals →
01234
08.0%6.2%4.0%1.4%0.4%
19.8%13%6.4%2.3%0.6%
28.8%9.5%5.1%1.8%0.5%
34.7%5.1%2.7%1.0%0.3%
41.9%2.1%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris goals (down), columns = Šiauliai goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.19
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.50
Dainava
1.25
Banga
1.19
Šiauliai
1.17
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
1.14
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.06
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.33 points better than Šiauliai in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.67
Kauno Žalgiris
1.19
Šiauliai
1.08
Banga
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.97
Dainava
0.94
Panevėžys
0.94
Džiugas Telšiai
0.92
Suduva Marijampole
0.89
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.11 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86
Be1 NFA
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.08
Dainava
1.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Panevėžys
1.11
Banga
1.28
Džiugas Telšiai
1.33
Šiauliai
1.39
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.39
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.28 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L01L00D00D11D02L10W20W00DA·ŠIA17/03H·FK 31/03H·PAN07/04H·DŽI10/04H·DAI14/04H·SUD20/04H·BAN24/04A·HEG28/04A·TRA02/05A·GAR07/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.500.560.560.790.43
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (13)0.770.230.570.291.000.17
vs Weaker (15)0.670.530.620.750.710.29
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D01L01L00D00D00D10W00D10WH·KAU17/03H·TRA30/03A·FK 07/04H·PAN10/04A·DŽI14/04H·DAI20/04H·SUD23/04A·BAN28/04H·HEG01/05A·TAU07/05
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.400.330.400.400.40
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.430.430.420.500.450.36
vs Weaker (4)0.250.000.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L00D00D30W10W10W01L00D03L50WA·ŠIA17/03H·FK 31/03H·PAN07/04H·DŽI10/04H·DAI14/04H·SUD20/04H·BAN24/04A·HEG28/04A·TRA02/05A·GAR07/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.631.060.561.210.71
vs Stronger (2)1.000.501.001.001.000.00
vs Similar (13)0.770.921.140.860.331.00
vs Weaker (15)1.470.401.000.252.000.57
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L02L10W12L10W01L00D11D30WH·KAU17/03H·TRA30/03A·FK 07/04H·PAN10/04A·DŽI14/04H·DAI20/04H·SUD23/04A·BAN28/04H·HEG01/05A·TAU07/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.830.600.470.931.20
vs Stronger (3)0.671.000.000.001.001.50
vs Similar (23)0.650.910.670.580.641.27
vs Weaker (4)1.500.250.500.002.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's squad is €4m more valuable than Šiauliai's (€10m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's attack is €2m more valuable than Šiauliai's (€4m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris and Šiauliai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's defence is €1m more valuable than Šiauliai's (€4m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
KŽ wins
2
Draws
2
ŠIA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kauno Žalgiris vs Šiauliai · H/A from KŽ
DateH/AGameScore
17/03/24AŠiauliai Vs KŽ2-1
03/09/23AŠiauliai Vs KŽ1-1
02/07/23HKŽ Vs Šiauliai3-2
29/04/23AŠiauliai Vs KŽ1-0
10/03/23HKŽ Vs Šiauliai0-0
23/10/22HKŽ Vs Šiauliai1-0
28/08/22AŠiauliai Vs KŽ0-3
22/06/22AŠiauliai Vs KŽ0-1

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/24AGarliava Vs KŽ0-5
02/05/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs KŽ3-2
28/04/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs KŽ0-1
24/04/24HKŽ Vs Banga0-3
20/04/24HKŽ Vs Suduva Marijampole2-1
14/04/24HKŽ Vs Dainava1-0
10/04/24HKŽ Vs Džiugas Telšiai3-0
07/04/24HKŽ Vs Panevėžys0-1
31/03/24HKŽ Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-1
17/03/24AŠiauliai Vs KŽ2-1

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/24ATauras Vs ŠIA0-4
01/05/24HŠIA Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-1
28/04/24ABanga Vs ŠIA0-1
23/04/24HŠIA Vs Suduva Marijampole0-1
20/04/24HŠIA Vs Dainava1-0
14/04/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs ŠIA2-1
10/04/24HŠIA Vs Panevėžys1-1
07/04/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs ŠIA3-0
30/03/24HŠIA Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-1
17/03/24HŠIA Vs Kauno Žalgiris2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.50
HomeLWWWL1.70
AwayDLWLW1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%48%30%
AVG goals2.722.702.74
Over 1.5 %76%70%83%
Over 2.5 %50%56%43%
Over 3.5 %28%30%26%
Scored1.561.591.52
Conceded1.161.111.22
BTTS58%56%61%
Clean Sheet30%30%30%
Corners8.0011.005.00
Cards4.004.00-
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.58
HomeLDWLD1.72
AwayDLLWW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.281.842.72
Over 1.5 %66%60%72%
Over 2.5 %38%24%52%
Over 3.5 %26%12%40%
Scored1.281.201.36
Conceded1.000.641.36
BTTS46%40%52%
Clean Sheet42%48%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3679
67%
2.2
7631+45
3.0
78%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.10.9
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
53%
1.9
6040+20
2.8
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.1
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3654
42%
1.5
4340+3
2.3
61%
44%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.21.1
-
4DainavaDainava3645
33%
1.2
3439-5
2.0
53%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
5BangaBanga3643
28%
1.2
3746-9
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.01.3
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3842
26%
1.1
3441-7
2.0
47%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3642
28%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
67%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.4
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3642
31%
1.2
3348-15
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.3
-
9PanevėžysPanevėžys3641
25%
1.1
3440-6
2.1
56%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2220.91.1
-
10TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3638
31%
1.1
3550-15
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.4
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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