Kauno Žalgiris are tipped to lift a home win, with a 60% chance of victory, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 17% chance of a Šiauliai win. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a fairly open encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% probability. Kauno Žalgiris have been prolific at home, averaging 2.0 goals scored and conceding only 0.5 against opponents of similar strength, while Šiauliai, on the road, manage 1.15 goals for and 1.46 against. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 80.2% probability. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, with a 60% chance of a home win, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 17% chance of an away win. The single most likely score is 1-1, and the model’s pick remains a home win.
Results analysis
Kauno Žalgiris, fresh from a draw, carried their recent form into the match and secured a 3-1 victory over Šiauliai, extending their winning run. The Pythia model had picked a home win with a 60% probability, and the prediction proved correct. The expected total of 2.9 goals materialised as the final score of 3-1, comfortably above the most likely total of 2 goals. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5, hit with an 80.2% chance. All other suggested picks were settled, and the model’s overall call was right, confirming the favoured result and the accuracy of its selections.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
59.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai win✗ Miss
17.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.77
2.43
0.64
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.38
1.38
vs Weaker (16)
2.12
0.56
2.75
0.75
1.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.30
2.14
1.36
1.25
1.25
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.46
2.09
1.45
1.15
1.46
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
3.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.4%
Under 2.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.0%
Under 3.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
10.0%
1-0
9.4%
3-0
6.7%
3-1 ✓
6.5%
0-0
6.3%
1-2
4.9%
Kauno Žalgiris goals ↓
Šiauliai goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
4.1%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
1
9.4%
11%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
10.0%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.7%
6.5%
3.2%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.3%
3.2%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris goals (down), columns = Šiauliai goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Dainava
0.50
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.64 points better than Šiauliai in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.22 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Banga
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.75 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals conceded per game (0.72 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.27
1.00
0.07
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.43
0.67
0.00
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.12
1.25
0.12
0.75
0.12
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.93
0.36
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.50
0.91
0.27
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.50
1.43
0.57
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.57
1.33
0.50
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.44
1.50
0.62
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.21
1.00
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.96
1.18
1.18
0.69
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's squad is €4m more valuable than Šiauliai's (€10m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's attack is €2m more valuable than Šiauliai's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris and Šiauliai have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris's defence is €1m more valuable than Šiauliai's (€4m vs €3m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hegelmann Litauen
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Suduva Marijampole
Panevėžys
Džiugas Telšiai
Banga
FK Trakai
Dainava
Neptūną Klaipėda