Kauno Žalgiris, fresh from a 0-0 draw, will face a Suduva side riding a five-game winning streak. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair, with a 1.9 average goal expectation and a 2-goal total most likely. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, with a 16.2% chance. Kauno Žalgiris’ home form against weaker opponents shows 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded on average, while Suduva’s away form against stronger teams yields zero goals scored and conceded. The model favours a home win, with a 37% chance of victory, a 34% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of an away win. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 87.4% and Under 2.5 goals at 70.2%. The model’s selection for a home win carries the highest probability, making it the most likely outcome.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Kauno Žalgiris, who had just drawn their last match, fell to a 0-3 defeat, ending their shaky home run. The pre-match favourite was the home win at 37 percent, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-3 gave an away win, a result the model had not predicted. The model’s selections included Under 3.5, which hit with an 87.4 percent probability, and Under 2.5, which missed at 70.2 percent. With the away side on a five-game winning streak, the outcome was a clear surprise, proving the model’s prediction was off the mark.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole win✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.33
1.17
1.33
1.17
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.50
1.25
1.50
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
1.17
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suduva Marijampole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.43
0.57
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.70
1.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.2%
Under 1.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
29.8%
Under 2.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.6%
Under 3.5
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.9%
No
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.2%
1-1
14.8%
1-0
13.9%
0-1
11.7%
2-0
7.9%
2-1
6.9%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
5.7%
Kauno Žalgiris goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
12%
5.7%
1.7%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
5.9%
1.7%
0.4%
2
7.9%
6.9%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
3
2.7%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.75
Panevėžys
1.72
Hegelmann Litauen
1.69
FK Trakai
1.64
Suduva Marijampole
1.53
Šiauliai
1.39
Banga
0.83
Džiugas Telšiai
0.75
Jonava
0.08
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.22 points better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.36
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.53
FK Trakai
1.47
Panevėžys
1.39
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Šiauliai
1.08
Džiugas Telšiai
0.94
Banga
0.92
Jonava
0.33
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.19 goals better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.75
Panevėžys
0.86
Hegelmann Litauen
0.89
Kauno Žalgiris
1.03
Šiauliai
1.08
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
FK Trakai
1.14
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.86
Jonava
2.86
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.08 goals better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.42
0.33
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suduva Marijampole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.42
0.17
0.57
0.14
0.20
0.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.20
0.50
0.17
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.92
0.83
0.83
0.83
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.00
1.25
0.75
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.83
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suduva Marijampole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.50
0.86
0.43
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
Kauno Žalgiris's squad is €4m more valuable than Suduva Marijampole's (€10m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Kauno Žalgiris's attack is €1m more valuable than Suduva Marijampole's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
Kauno Žalgiris and Suduva Marijampole have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Kauno Žalgiris's defence is €2m more valuable than Suduva Marijampole's (€4m vs €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Panevėžys
Hegelmann Litauen
FK Trakai
Šiauliai
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Jonava