Kauno Žalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole Result & Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris face Suduva Marijampole with the model favouring an away win. The odds show a 44% chance for Suduva, 28% for a home win and 28% for a draw, so the most likely outcome is a Suduva victory. The expected total is 2.6 goals, with the single most likely scoreline 1-1 at 13.5%. Kauno, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Suduva, on the road against a stronger opponent, scores 1.0 and concedes only 0.33 on average. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 74.6%, Under 3.5 at 73.5%, and Under 11.5 corners at 72.0%. Kauno’s recent form shows a draw-heavy run, while Suduva is on a five-game winning streak, adding weight to the away win pick.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Away win, failed to deliver, with the match ending in a 2-2 draw. Kauno Žalgiris and Suduva Marijampole both finished level, a result that left the model’s prediction wrong. The model had given the away side a 44% chance of victory, yet the game settled as a draw. The suggested picks were mixed: Over 1.5, with a 74.6% probability, hit, while Under 3.5, at 73.5%, missed. Kauno Žalgiris, after a 0-0 draw, was coming off a mixed run, whereas Suduva Marijampole, on a five-game winning streak, could not maintain the momentum. The final score of 2-2 confirmed a surprising stalemate.