Kauno Žalgiris are tipped to win the encounter with a 51 % chance, while a draw sits at 28 % and a Suduva Marijampole victory at 21 %. The model expects a modest 2.5-goal game, with the most probable total being two goals at 27 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3 % probability. Kauno Žalgiris, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, whereas Suduva Marijampole, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.6 %, Under 6.5 at 98.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5 %, Under 5.5 at 96.0 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 93.4 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 92.8 %, Home +2 handicap at 92.4 %, and Under 4.5 at 89.5 %. The home side’s recent form shows a loss, win, draw, win, loss, while the away side is on a four-game winning streak.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris win
51.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole win
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.87
2.07
0.80
1.13
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.71
0.79
2.22
0.78
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.42
2.25
0.75
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suduva Marijampole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.03
1.57
1.21
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.17
1.33
1.67
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (23)
1.57
0.96
1.64
1.09
1.50
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.6%
Under 2.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.2%
Under 3.5
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
11.8%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
9.4%
0-1
6.3%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
5.4%
Kauno Žalgiris goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
6.3%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.4%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.4%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.4%
5.0%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.47 points worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.33 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.13 goals better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 0.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kauno Žalgiris or Draw
79.4%
Avg Implied -
52%
28%
21%
covers Kauno Žalgiris + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris or Suduva Marijampole
72.4%
Avg Implied -
52%
28%
21%
covers Kauno Žalgiris + Suduva Marijampole
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Suduva Marijampole
48.1%
Avg Implied -
52%
28%
21%
covers Draw + Suduva Marijampole
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5
Over
59.9%
Under
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5
Over
23.3%
Under
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kauno Žalgiris, so a minus line means Kauno Žalgiris give that many goals of a start and Suduva Marijampole receive them. At -1, Kauno Žalgiris must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kauno Žalgiris win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kauno Žalgiris)
Kauno Žalgiris -2
11.7%
Draw -2
16.3%
Suduva Marijampole +2
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kauno Žalgiris)
Kauno Žalgiris -1
28.0%
Draw -1
23.8%
Suduva Marijampole +1
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kauno Žalgiris)
Kauno Žalgiris +1
79.4%
Draw +1
13.3%
Suduva Marijampole -1
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kauno Žalgiris)
Kauno Žalgiris +2
92.7%
Draw +2
5.4%
Suduva Marijampole -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.27
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.21
1.00
0.11
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.08
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suduva Marijampole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.43
0.36
0.64
0.44
0.25
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.35
0.36
0.55
0.58
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.3%
Under 0.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.0%
Under 1.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.4%
Under 2.5
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
1.22
0.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suduva Marijampole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.60
1.21
0.57
1.00
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.61
1.27
0.55
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.9%
Under 0.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.4%
Under 1.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.2%
Under 2.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.4%
Under
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Kauno Žalgiris's squad is €4m more valuable than Suduva Marijampole's (€10m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Kauno Žalgiris's attack is €1m more valuable than Suduva Marijampole's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Kauno Žalgiris and Suduva Marijampole have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Kauno Žalgiris's defence is €2m more valuable than Suduva Marijampole's (€4m vs €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai