Kauno žalgiris is the clear favourite, with a 66% chance of winning at home. The model rates them highly due to their opponent's weakness on home soil. TransINVEST Vilnius, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, conceding 0.62 goals per game against stronger opponents.
The home win is the model's selection, with a probability of 66%. The expected total goals is 3.2, and the most likely total number of goals is 3. The most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 10.6%. Kauno žalgiris has a strong home record, scoring 1 goal and conceding 0 on average against stronger opponents.
The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, with a probability of 83.1%. TransINVEST Vilnius has been scoring 2.85 goals per game away from home against weaker opponents. The home win percentage is 66%, the draw percentage is 21%, and the away win percentage is 13%.
Results analysis
In a shocking turn of events, Kauno žalgiris and TransINVEST Vilnius played out a 1-1 draw, extending the home team's run of inconsistent form. The pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise as the model's selection, despite holding a 67% probability. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was a draw. However, the model's selection was not the only one to hit, as the Over 1.5 goal line was also achieved, with an 83.1% probability. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 hit, while the model's selection, Home win, missed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris win✗ Miss
66.5%
Avg Implied 60.9% · @ 1.47
Edge
+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.55
William Hil
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Dafabet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Draw✓ Hit
20.4%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 3.95
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.20
Dafabet
4.20
Pinnacle
4.17
10Bet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
TransINVEST Vilnius win✗ Miss
13.1%
Avg Implied 16.4% · @ 5.46
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.87
1xBet
5.82
Dafabet
5.80
Betano
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.97
1.93
0.93
1.33
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (16)
1.62
0.94
2.11
0.78
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.58
1.80
1.00
1.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
0.87
1.93
1.00
3.19
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.00
0.75
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
3.10
0.81
2.40
1.00
3.73
0.64
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.1%
@ 1.20+7.3%
Under 1.5
16.9%
@ 3.77-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.75
1xBet
3.72
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.0%
@ 1.69+7.1%
Under 2.5
39.0%
@ 1.99-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Under
Bet365
2.08
Pinnacle
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.7%
@ 2.69+4.9%
Under 3.5
61.3%
@ 1.38-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.69
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.4%
@ 1.78+3.3%
No
45.6%
@ 1.86-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
No
Unibet
2.00
Betfair
1.91
1xBet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.7%@ 6.68+4.3%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.13+3.8%
1-1 ✓
9.6%@ 7.22+3.7%
1-0
8.7%@ 6.47+2.1%
3-0
8.0%@ 9.79+3.6%
3-1
7.3%@ 10.86+3.4%
0-0
5.1%@ 11.44+1.4%
4-0
4.5%@ 18.46+2.2%
Kauno Žalgiris goals ↓
TransINVEST Vilnius goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
3.0%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
8.7%
9.6%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
8.0%
7.3%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
4
4.5%
4.1%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris goals (down), columns = TransINVEST Vilnius goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.83 points better than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Kauno Žalgiris is 0.88 goals better than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Kauno Žalgiris is 1.05 goals better than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kauno Žalgiris or Draw✓ Hit
86.9%
Avg Implied -
67%
20%
13%
covers Kauno Žalgiris + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris or TransINVEST Vilnius✗ Miss
79.6%
Avg Implied -
67%
20%
13%
covers Kauno Žalgiris + TransINVEST Vilnius
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius✓ Hit
33.5%
Avg Implied -
67%
20%
13%
covers Draw + TransINVEST Vilnius
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.37
0.87
0.27
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.38
0.89
0.11
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.08
1.00
0.20
1.14
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.43
0.93
0.50
1.50
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.44
0.25
0.50
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
1.57
0.43
1.20
0.50
1.91
0.36
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
1.07
0.67
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.56
1.22
0.67
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.50
0.80
0.80
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.43
1.00
0.50
1.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.56
0.50
0.50
1.40
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
1.52
0.38
1.20
0.50
1.82
0.27
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home or Draw
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Kauno Žalgiris's squad is €4m more valuable than TransINVEST Vilnius's (€10m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Kauno Žalgiris's attack is €2m more valuable than TransINVEST Vilnius's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Kauno Žalgiris and TransINVEST Vilnius have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Kauno Žalgiris's defence is €2m more valuable than TransINVEST Vilnius's (€4m vs €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Panevėžys
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai