PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Kavala vs Makedonikos Neapolis Result & Analysis

Date: 22/04/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 5-1
Kavala
Kavala
Vs
64%
23%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Makedonikos Neapolis
Makedonikos Neapolis
Greece: Super League 2
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Kavala a 64% win probability against Makedonikos Neapolis in the Greece: Super League 2 on 2026-04-22, with 23% for the draw and 13% for Makedonikos Neapolis. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 2-0 the most likely scoreline (12.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (77%), Under 3.5 (71%).

Results analysis

Kavala finished 5-1 against Makedonikos Neapolis (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 64% home win, 23% draw and 13% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (77%). Missed: Under 3.5 (71%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kavala win✓ Hit
64.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Makedonikos Neapolis win✗ Miss
13.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KavalaKavala

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W11D04L00D30W00D12L21W02L13LH·PAS17/01H·AST24/01A·PAO14/02H·KAM22/02H·PAS28/02A·MAK08/03A·NES14/03H·PAO05/04A·KAM08/04A·PAS18/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.201.290.790.501.56
vs Stronger (12)0.831.921.331.500.332.33
vs Similar (17)0.880.761.290.290.601.10
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Makedonikos Neapolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Makedonikos NeapolisMakedonikos Neapolis

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L01L01L15L21W00D01L22D02L43WH·PAO17/01H·NIK24/01H·PAS14/02A·NES22/02A·KAM28/02H·KAV08/03H·PAO14/03A·PAS05/04H·NES08/04H·KAM18/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.632.000.691.560.572.50
vs Stronger (17)0.412.590.562.000.253.25
vs Similar (13)0.921.230.861.001.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kavala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%016%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.5%
1-0
11.8%
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.1%
0-0
7.6%
3-1
6.3%
0-1
4.1%
Kavala goals ↓
Makedonikos Neapolis goals →
01234
07.6%4.1%2.0%0.5%0.1%
112%11%3.8%1.0%0.2%
212%9.7%3.7%1.0%0.2%
38.1%6.3%2.4%0.6%0.1%
43.9%3.1%1.2%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kavala goals (down), columns = Makedonikos Neapolis goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kalamata
2.64
Iraklis 1908
2.40
Panionios
2.08
Niki Volos
2.00
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.71
Marko
1.67
PAOK II
1.64
Kallithea
1.61
Ellas Syros
1.61
Asteras Tripolis II
1.54
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.43
Egaleo
1.32
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.29
Kavala
1.25
Kissamikos
0.89
Kampaniakos Chalastra
0.82
PAS Giannina
0.75
Ilioupoli
0.71
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.50
Panargiakos
0.36
Kavala is 0.75 points better than Makedonikos Neapolis in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kalamata
2.08
Niki Volos
1.92
Iraklis 1908
1.72
PAOK II
1.57
Panionios
1.46
Ellas Syros
1.43
Asteras Tripolis II
1.21
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.17
Kallithea
1.14
Marko
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.08
Kavala
1.07
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.07
Egaleo
0.96
Kampaniakos Chalastra
0.89
PAS Giannina
0.86
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.68
Kissamikos
0.64
Ilioupoli
0.64
Panargiakos
0.50
Kavala is 0.39 goals better than Makedonikos Neapolis in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 0.68).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalamata
0.48
Niki Volos
0.50
Panionios
0.54
Iraklis 1908
0.60
Marko
0.71
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.75
Kallithea
0.79
Ellas Syros
0.86
Nestos Chrisoupolis
0.93
PAOK II
1.11
Egaleo
1.11
Asteras Tripolis II
1.12
Kissamikos
1.29
Kavala
1.32
PAS Giannina
1.46
Ilioupoli
1.54
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.58
Panargiakos
1.86
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.86
Makedonikos Neapolis
2.14
Kavala is 0.82 goals better than Makedonikos Neapolis in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 2.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KavalaKavala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L00D20W00D00D01L01L00DH·PAS17/01H·AST24/01A·PAO14/02H·KAM22/02H·PAS28/02A·MAK08/03A·NES14/03H·PAO05/04A·KAM08/04A·PAS18/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.170.500.210.360.120.62
vs Stronger (12)0.171.080.000.830.331.33
vs Similar (17)0.180.120.430.000.000.20
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Makedonikos Neapolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Makedonikos NeapolisMakedonikos Neapolis

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D01L02L01L00D00D10W00D30WH·PAO17/01H·NIK24/01H·PAS14/02A·NES22/02A·KAM28/02H·KAV08/03H·PAO14/03A·PAS05/04H·NES08/04H·KAM18/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.770.310.440.211.14
vs Stronger (17)0.181.120.220.670.121.62
vs Similar (13)0.380.310.430.140.330.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kavala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kavala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kavala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kavala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Makedonikos Neapolis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Makedonikos Neapolis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Makedonikos Neapolis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KavalaKavala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L03L00D10W00D12L20W01L13LH·PAS17/01H·AST24/01A·PAO14/02H·KAM22/02H·PAS28/02A·MAK08/03A·NES14/03H·PAO05/04A·KAM08/04A·PAS18/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.701.070.430.380.94
vs Stronger (12)0.670.831.330.670.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.710.650.860.290.600.90
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Makedonikos Neapolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Makedonikos NeapolisMakedonikos Neapolis

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L00D13L20W00D01L12L02L13LH·PAO17/01H·NIK24/01H·PAS14/02A·NES22/02A·KAM28/02H·KAV08/03H·PAO14/03A·PAS05/04H·NES08/04H·KAM18/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.230.381.120.361.36
vs Stronger (17)0.241.470.331.330.121.62
vs Similar (13)0.540.920.430.860.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kavala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kavala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kavala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kavala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Makedonikos Neapolis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Makedonikos Neapolis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Makedonikos Neapolis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (30)
€7m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (14)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (13)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
KAV wins
2
Draws
1
MN wins

Head-to-head

Kavala vs Makedonikos Neapolis · H/A from KAV
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/26AMakedonikos Neapolis Vs KAV0-0
07/12/25AMakedonikos Neapolis Vs KAV0-1
05/10/25HKAV Vs Makedonikos Neapolis1-1
21/12/24HKAV Vs Makedonikos Neapolis1-0
20/10/24AMakedonikos Neapolis Vs KAV4-2

KavalaKavala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26APAS Giannina Vs KAV3-1
08/04/26AKampaniakos Chalastra Vs KAV2-0
05/04/26HKAV Vs PAOK II2-1
14/03/26ANestos Chrisoupolis Vs KAV2-1
08/03/26AMakedonikos Neapolis Vs KAV0-0
28/02/26HKAV Vs PAS Giannina3-0
22/02/26HKAV Vs Kampaniakos Chalastra0-0
14/02/26APAOK II Vs KAV4-0
24/01/26HKAV Vs Asteras Tripolis II1-1
17/01/26HKAV Vs PAS Giannina2-0

Makedonikos NeapolisMakedonikos Neapolis

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26HMN Vs Kampaniakos Chalastra4-3
08/04/26HMN Vs Nestos Chrisoupolis0-2
05/04/26APAS Giannina Vs MN2-2
14/03/26HMN Vs PAOK II0-1
08/03/26HMN Vs Kavala0-0
28/02/26AKampaniakos Chalastra Vs MN1-2
22/02/26ANestos Chrisoupolis Vs MN5-1
14/02/26HMN Vs PAS Giannina0-1
24/01/26HMN Vs Niki Volos0-1
17/01/26HMN Vs PAOK II1-3

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Kavala
Kavala
Greece: Super League 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.16
HomeWDDWW1.46
AwayLDLLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%38%19%
AVG goals2.122.042.19
Over 1.5 %60%58%62%
Over 2.5 %34%33%35%
Over 3.5 %18%12%23%
Scored0.841.040.65
Conceded1.281.001.54
BTTS36%42%31%
Clean Sheet38%42%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Makedonikos Neapolis
Makedonikos Neapolis
Greece: Super League 2
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLW0.82
HomeLDLLW1.12
AwayLLLWD0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%31%12%
AVG goals2.782.583.00
Over 1.5 %74%62%88%
Over 2.5 %58%46%71%
Over 3.5 %28%35%21%
Scored0.961.150.75
Conceded1.821.422.25
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet8%12%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KalamataKalamata2566
84%
2.6
5212+40
2.6
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3132.10.5
-
2Iraklis 1908Iraklis 19082560
72%
2.4
4315+28
2.3
64%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.6
-
3PanioniosPanionios2450
62%
2.1
3513+22
2.0
62%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.5
-
4Niki VolosNiki Volos2448
54%
2.0
4612+34
2.4
58%
42%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.5
-
5PAOK IIPAOK II2846
50%
1.6
4431+13
2.7
75%
54%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
6Ellas SyrosEllas Syros2845
43%
1.6
4024+16
2.3
75%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.40.9
-
7KallitheaKallithea2845
43%
1.6
3222+10
1.9
64%
21%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
8Anagennisi KarditsasAnagennisi Karditsas2441
50%
1.7
2818+10
1.9
50%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
9MarkoMarko2440
46%
1.7
2717+10
1.8
62%
21%
4%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.7
-
10Nestos ChrisoupolisNestos Chrisoupolis2840
39%
1.4
3026+4
2.0
57%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
11Asteras Tripolis IIAsteras Tripolis II2437
42%
1.5
2927+2
2.3
71%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.1
-
12EgaleoEgaleo2837
36%
1.3
2731-4
2.1
64%
39%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.1
-
13KavalaKavala2835
32%
1.2
3037-7
2.4
64%
43%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
14Olympiakos Piraeus IIOlympiakos Piraeus II2431
38%
1.3
2638-12
2.7
71%
58%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
15KissamikosKissamikos2825
25%
0.9
1836-18
1.9
61%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.3
-
16Kampaniakos ChalastraKampaniakos Chalastra2823
21%
0.8
2552-27
2.8
71%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
17PAS GianninaPAS Giannina2821
18%
0.8
2441-17
2.3
57%
43%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
18IlioupoliIlioupoli2820
18%
0.7
1843-25
2.2
71%
29%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.5
-
19Makedonikos NeapolisMakedonikos Neapolis2814
11%
0.5
1960-41
2.8
64%
54%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.1
-
20PanargiakosPanargiakos2810
4%
0.4
1452-38
2.4
68%
36%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.9
-
Greece: Super League 2 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →

← all matches