Kayserispor and Bursaspor face a tightly balanced encounter, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 34 % for a home victory, 29 % for a draw, and 37 % for Bursaspor to lift the trophy. The expected total of goals is 2.5, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 14 % chance. Kayserispor, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.27 goals scored and 0.82 conceded, while Bursaspor, on the road, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (98.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7 %), Under 5.5 (95.6 %), Under 4.5 (88.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (87.4 %), and Away under 2.5 goals (85.6 %). Kayserispor’s recent four-game winning streak and Bursaspor’s return from a defeat add intrigue, but the match remains a close contest.
Results analysis
Kayserispor’s recent run of four wins after a defeat set the stage, but Bursaspor’s return to form after a win kept the match balanced. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct as Bursaspor edged Kayserispor 1-2. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 38 percent. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99.5 percent), Under 6.5 (98.5 percent), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5 percent), Under 5.5 (95.6 percent), Away under 3.5 goals (95.5 percent), Under 4.5 (88.7 percent), Home under 2.5 goals (87.6 percent) and Away +2 handicap (85.6 percent). The most likely score of 1-1 at 14 percent did not materialise, but the overall prediction framework delivered a clean sweep of outcomes.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kayserispor win✗ Miss
32.9%
Avg Implied 38.5% · @ 2.37
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.49
Betano
2.45
William Hil
2.45
Superbet
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.15
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.30
Pinnacle
3.25
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
Bursaspor win✓ Hit
37.8%
Avg Implied 32.6% · @ 2.79
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.94
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.84
Superbet
2.82
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kayserispor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.40
1.07
1.36
0.75
1.44
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
2.62
0.33
3.33
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.95
1.27
0.82
0.82
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bursaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bursaspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.07
1.36
1.07
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.43
0.75
1.25
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.78
1.06
0.71
1.14
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.80
0.60
3.67
0.67
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
@ 1.30+2.0%
Under 1.5
26.8%
@ 3.20-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.43
Betfair
3.40
BetVictor
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.4%
@ 1.98-0.6%
Under 2.5
53.6%
@ 1.75+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Betano
1.98
Under
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Betfair
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
@ 3.43-2.0%
Under 3.5
75.1%
@ 1.27+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.61
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Under
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
@ 1.76+0.3%
No
47.3%
@ 1.94-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.78
William Hil
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Betfair
1.75
No
Betano
2.00
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.96
BetVictor
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 5.73+6.2%
0-0
9.2%@ 8.33+3.9%
0-1
9.2%@ 7.88+3.6%
1-0
8.4%@ 7.25+2.3%
1-2 ✓
8.4%@ 9.67+3.8%
2-1
7.7%@ 8.64+2.6%
0-2
6.9%@ 12.90+3.5%
2-0
5.9%@ 10.89+1.8%
Kayserispor goals ↓
Bursaspor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
9.2%
6.9%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.4%
14%
8.4%
3.7%
1.2%
2
5.9%
7.7%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.4%
3.1%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kayserispor goals (down), columns = Bursaspor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Batman Petrolspor
2.60
Bursaspor
2.40
Sarıyer
2.00
Kayserispor
2.00
Iğdır FK
1.80
Mardin 1969
1.80
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Fatih Karagümrük
1.60
Muğlaspor
1.60
Bandırmaspor
1.20
Antalyaspor
1.20
Pendikspor
1.00
Vanspor FK
0.80
Esenler Erokspor
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Sivasspor
0.60
Ümraniyespor
0.60
İstanbulspor
0.40
Boluspor
0.00
Kayserispor is 0.40 points worse than Bursaspor in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Keçiörengücü
2.40
Batman Petrolspor
2.00
Bursaspor
2.00
Manisa F.K.
2.00
Antalyaspor
1.60
Sarıyer
1.60
Mardin 1969
1.60
Iğdır FK
1.40
Pendikspor
1.40
Kayserispor
1.40
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Vanspor FK
1.00
Bandırmaspor
1.00
Sivasspor
1.00
İstanbulspor
1.00
Ümraniyespor
0.80
Muğlaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.40
Bodrum FK
0.40
Boluspor
0.20
Kayserispor is 0.60 goals worse than Bursaspor in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Muğlaspor
0.40
Bandırmaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.60
Mardin 1969
0.60
Bursaspor
0.60
Kayserispor
0.60
Sarıyer
0.80
Batman Petrolspor
0.80
Iğdır FK
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Ümraniyespor
1.20
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Sivasspor
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Antalyaspor
2.00
Vanspor FK
2.20
Boluspor
2.20
Pendikspor
2.20
İstanbulspor
2.60
Kayserispor and Bursaspor are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Esenler Erokspor
61%
Bandırmaspor
60%
Bursaspor
59%
Manisa F.K.
55%
Antalyaspor
55%
Kayserispor
53%
Batman Petrolspor
52%
Ümraniyespor
52%
Pendikspor
51%
Sarıyer
50%
Iğdır FK
49%
Mardin 1969
49%
Sivasspor
48%
Bodrum FK
46%
Keçiörengücü
45%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
İstanbulspor
44%
Muğlaspor
43%
Vanspor FK
42%
Boluspor
41%
Kayserispor is 6.2 percentage points worse than Bursaspor in terms of average possession (53% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kayserispor
For 6.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bursaspor
For 6.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.1 · Against 11.0 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kayserispor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
10.0
4.2
4.2
4.1
24.6
24.8
24.5
vs Stronger (17)
11.1
11.0
11.1
4.2
4.6
4.0
23.6
24.3
23.1
vs Similar (33)
9.4
9.6
9.3
4.2
4.1
4.2
25.2
25.1
25.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
65%
60%
64%
67%
62%
73%
74%
72%
% under line
38%
35%
40%
36%
33%
38%
27%
26%
28%
This opponent (Bursaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bursaspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.2
9.0
3.8
3.8
3.9
28.8
29.6
28.1
vs Stronger (15)
8.8
9.1
8.5
4.9
5.4
4.4
28.3
28.6
28.1
vs Similar (29)
9.7
9.5
9.8
3.2
3.4
3.1
28.9
30.8
27.2
vs Weaker (6)
6.0
6.0
6.0
4.2
1.7
6.7
30.3
24.0
33.5
% over line
35%
40%
30%
58%
65%
52%
88%
95%
83%
% under line
65%
60%
70%
42%
35%
48%
12%
5%
17%
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kayserispor
10.0
Sivasspor
9.7
Bodrum FK
9.3
Antalyaspor
9.2
Bursaspor
9.1
Bandırmaspor
9.1
Ümraniyespor
9.0
Iğdır FK
8.9
Esenler Erokspor
8.8
Fatih Karagümrük
8.8
Mardin 1969
8.7
Manisa F.K.
8.6
Pendikspor
8.5
İstanbulspor
8.3
Batman Petrolspor
8.3
Keçiörengücü
8.3
Vanspor FK
8.3
Boluspor
8.2
Sarıyer
7.9
Muğlaspor
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Batman Petrolspor
6.7
Muğlaspor
6.7
Antalyaspor
5.3
Sarıyer
5.1
Vanspor FK
5.1
Pendikspor
5.1
Boluspor
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Manisa F.K.
4.9
Iğdır FK
4.8
İstanbulspor
4.7
Bandırmaspor
4.6
Keçiörengücü
4.6
Kayserispor
4.5
Bursaspor
4.4
Fatih Karagümrük
4.4
Ümraniyespor
4.2
Bodrum FK
4.1
Mardin 1969
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Muğlaspor
33.0
Bursaspor
29.1
Fatih Karagümrük
29.0
Vanspor FK
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.2
Pendikspor
26.8
Boluspor
25.7
Batman Petrolspor
25.0
Kayserispor
24.8
Bandırmaspor
24.1
Bodrum FK
24.0
Sarıyer
23.6
Manisa F.K.
23.6
Keçiörengücü
23.5
Iğdır FK
23.5
İstanbulspor
23.4
Sivasspor
23.2
Ümraniyespor
23.1
Esenler Erokspor
22.8
Mardin 1969
21.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
44.3%
@ 2.02-1.6%
Under 9.5
55.7%
@ 1.71+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.6%
Under 3.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.0%
Under 21.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kayserispor or Draw✗ Miss
62.2%
Avg Implied 67.6% · @ 1.36
Edge
-5.3%
33%
29%
38%
covers Kayserispor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Kayserispor or Bursaspor✓ Hit
70.7%
Avg Implied 70.9% · @ 1.29
Edge
-0.2%
33%
29%
38%
covers Kayserispor + Bursaspor
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Draw or Bursaspor✓ Hit
67.1%
Avg Implied 61.5% · @ 1.49
Edge
+5.6%
33%
29%
38%
covers Draw + Bursaspor
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
William Hil
1.50
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kayserispor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.3%
@ 1.29-1.5%
Under
29.7%
@ 3.29+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.55
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
BetVictor
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Kayserispor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.2%
@ 2.37-4.9%
Under
65.8%
@ 1.52+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.45
BetVictor
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Kayserispor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 5.47-4.6%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.11+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.35
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Kayserispor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 12.25-4.3%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.03+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Bursaspor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.2%
@ 1.34+3.8%
Under
26.8%
@ 3.03-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.25
Betano
3.10
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Bursaspor over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.9%
@ 2.64+2.8%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.43-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.85
Superbet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.64
BetVictor
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Bursaspor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 6.48+0.4%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.08-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.70
BetVictor
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
Superbet
6.30
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Bursaspor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 15.00-1.9%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kayserispor, so a minus line means Kayserispor give that many goals of a start and Bursaspor receive them. At -1, Kayserispor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kayserispor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kayserispor)Actual: Bursaspor
Kayserispor -2
4.8%
@ 9.25-4.6%
Draw -2
9.7%
@ 5.80-5.3%
Bursaspor +2
85.6%
@ 1.15+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
12.00
Marathonbet
6.50
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.12
Handicap -1 (Kayserispor)Actual: Bursaspor
Kayserispor -1
14.4%
@ 4.62-4.3%
Draw -1
18.5%
@ 3.83-4.2%
Bursaspor +1
67.1%
@ 1.48+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Unibet
4.00
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.25
Away
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
Unibet
1.44
Handicap +1 (Kayserispor)Actual: Draw
Kayserispor +1
62.2%
@ 1.36-1.3%
Draw +1
20.1%
@ 4.17-0.6%
Bursaspor -1
17.6%
@ 5.50+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
3.55
Away
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
5.90
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.60
Handicap +2 (Kayserispor)Actual: Kayserispor
Kayserispor +2
82.4%
@ 1.10+3.6%
Draw +2
11.4%
@ 6.62-1.7%
Bursaspor -2
6.2%
@ 10.75-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
6.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kayserispor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.63
0.36
0.57
0.12
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
1.12
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.45
0.45
0.36
0.18
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bursaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bursaspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.50
0.43
0.44
0.38
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.39
0.29
0.57
0.36
0.27
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.91
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
Unibet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.04
Betano
2.92
Superbet
2.92
William Hil
2.90
Under
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
BetVictor
8.00
William Hil
7.50
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kayserispor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Kayserispor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.85
1xBet
6.80
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Kayserispor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bursaspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Bursaspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.80
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Bursaspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kayserispor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.71
0.79
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.50
0.33
2.00
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.50
0.82
0.45
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Bursaspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bursaspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.86
0.64
0.31
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.67
0.43
0.57
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.60
2.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Under
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.80
William Hil
4.80
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.65
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kayserispor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Under
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Kayserispor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Kayserispor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bursaspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.80
Bursaspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Bursaspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.6%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
1xBet
1.10
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.4%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.0%
1.23
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.19
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.2%
1.34
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.2%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.7%
1.29
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.3%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-1.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kayserispor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Seferi75%
Florent Hasani25%
B. Keser25%
D. Moreno0%
G. Sağlam0%
D. Radu0%
J. Tabidze0%
S. Kurt0%
M. Uçar0%
S. Güler0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
F. Özer0%
C. Şen0%
M. Dulca0%
T. Sarıarslan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Tabidze50%
S. Güler50%
T. Sarıarslan33%
G. Sağlam25%
Florent Hasani25%
T. Seferi25%
M. Uçar25%
Gökhan Değirmenci25%
M. Dulca25%
D. Moreno0%
D. Radu0%
S. Kurt0%
B. Keser0%
F. Özer0%
C. Şen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
G. Sağlam25%
J. Tabidze25%
S. Kurt25%
B. Keser25%
D. Moreno0%
Florent Hasani0%
D. Radu0%
T. Seferi0%
M. Uçar0%
S. Güler0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
F. Özer0%
C. Şen0%
M. Dulca0%
T. Sarıarslan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Moreno25%
Florent Hasani25%
T. Seferi25%
B. Keser25%
G. Sağlam0%
D. Radu0%
J. Tabidze0%
S. Kurt0%
M. Uçar0%
S. Güler0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
F. Özer0%
C. Şen0%
M. Dulca0%
T. Sarıarslan0%
Bursaspor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
K. Ịheanachọ100%
Halil Akbunar33%
Lincoln25%
Alperen Babacan25%
Toral Bayramov0%
Lewis Baker0%
Amine Boutrah0%
Soner Aydoğdu0%
R. Berişbek0%
Juergen Elitim0%
B. Gök0%
Taha Batuhan Yayikci0%
B. Başyiğit0%
Eyüp Akcan0%
K. Matisli0%
Hüseyin Maldar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alperen Babacan50%
Toral Bayramov33%
Halil Akbunar33%
Lincoln25%
Juergen Elitim25%
B. Gök25%
Taha Batuhan Yayikci25%
K. Ịheanachọ0%
Lewis Baker0%
Amine Boutrah0%
Soner Aydoğdu0%
R. Berişbek0%
B. Başyiğit0%
Eyüp Akcan0%
K. Matisli0%
Hüseyin Maldar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Ịheanachọ50%
Lincoln50%
R. Berişbek33%
Toral Bayramov0%
Lewis Baker0%
Amine Boutrah0%
Soner Aydoğdu0%
Halil Akbunar0%
Alperen Babacan0%
Juergen Elitim0%
B. Gök0%
Taha Batuhan Yayikci0%
B. Başyiğit0%
Eyüp Akcan0%
K. Matisli0%
Hüseyin Maldar0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
K. Ịheanachọ100%
Lincoln50%
Toral Bayramov0%
Lewis Baker0%
Amine Boutrah0%
Soner Aydoğdu0%
Halil Akbunar0%
R. Berişbek0%
Alperen Babacan0%
Juergen Elitim0%
B. Gök0%
Taha Batuhan Yayikci0%
B. Başyiğit0%
Eyüp Akcan0%
K. Matisli0%
Hüseyin Maldar0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
Kayserispor's squad is €7m less valuable than Bursaspor's (€12m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (10)
€10m
BF (10)
€6m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
BOL (5)
€1m
Kayserispor's attack is €5m less valuable than Bursaspor's (€5m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (5)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
Kayserispor's midfield is €2m less valuable than Bursaspor's (€2m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ANT (11)
€7m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
Kayserispor and Bursaspor have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Batman Petrolspor
Sarıyer
Mardin 1969
Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
Manisa F.K.
Muğlaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
Antalyaspor
Pendikspor
Esenler Erokspor
Bodrum FK
Vanspor FK
Ümraniyespor
Sivasspor
İstanbulspor
Boluspor