Keçiörengücü are tipped to lift the trophy, a 59% chance of home victory against Sarıyer’s 17% chance of triumph and a 24% draw probability. The model favours a 1-1 scoreline, the most likely outcome with an 11.5% probability, while the average total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair. Home side Keçiörengücü, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 2.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, whereas Sarıyer, on the road, average 0.73 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.4%), Home +2 handicap (93.8%) and Under 5.5 (93.0%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are omitted where not provided.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Keçiörengücü win
57.7%
Avg Implied 42.5% · @ 2.15
Edge
+15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.22
William Hil
2.20
Dafabet
2.20
Bet365
2.15
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.29
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.42
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Dafabet
3.35
Betano
3.30
Sarıyer win
18.0%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.06
Edge
-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.35
William Hil
3.10
Pinnacle
3.08
Betano
3.05
Dafabet
3.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Keçiörengücü
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.43
2.80
1.20
1.40
1.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (26)
2.35
1.38
2.86
1.14
1.75
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarıyer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sarıyer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.07
1.81
0.62
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.34
1.03
1.87
0.53
0.79
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Keçiörengücü) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.9%
@ 1.25+5.5%
Under 1.5
21.1%
@ 3.46-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.62
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.85+3.9%
Under 2.5
45.6%
@ 1.88-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.0%
@ 3.05+1.9%
Under 3.5
68.0%
@ 1.32-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Pinnacle
3.09
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.97
Under
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Both teams to score
Yes
53.7%
@ 1.67-1.5%
No
46.3%
@ 2.06+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.73
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
No
Betano
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
Bet365
2.10
William Hil
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 6.01+4.3%
2-0
10.2%@ 10.25+5.9%
2-1
9.9%@ 8.24+4.6%
1-0
9.8%@ 7.76+4.1%
0-0
6.8%@ 9.43+2.2%
3-0
6.4%@ 19.36+4.2%
3-1
6.2%@ 15.61+3.4%
1-2
5.1%@ 10.04+0.7%
Keçiörengücü goals ↓
Sarıyer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
4.5%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.8%
12%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.4%
6.2%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.0%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Keçiörengücü goals (down), columns = Sarıyer goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Batman Petrolspor
2.60
Bursaspor
2.40
Sarıyer
2.00
Kayserispor
2.00
Iğdır FK
1.80
Mardin 1969
1.80
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Fatih Karagümrük
1.60
Muğlaspor
1.60
Bandırmaspor
1.20
Antalyaspor
1.20
Pendikspor
1.00
Vanspor FK
0.80
Esenler Erokspor
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Sivasspor
0.60
Ümraniyespor
0.60
İstanbulspor
0.40
Boluspor
0.00
Keçiörengücü is 0.40 points worse than Sarıyer in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Keçiörengücü
2.40
Batman Petrolspor
2.00
Bursaspor
2.00
Manisa F.K.
2.00
Antalyaspor
1.60
Sarıyer
1.60
Mardin 1969
1.60
Iğdır FK
1.40
Pendikspor
1.40
Kayserispor
1.40
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Vanspor FK
1.00
Bandırmaspor
1.00
Sivasspor
1.00
İstanbulspor
1.00
Ümraniyespor
0.80
Muğlaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.40
Bodrum FK
0.40
Boluspor
0.20
Keçiörengücü is 0.80 goals better than Sarıyer in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Muğlaspor
0.40
Bandırmaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.60
Mardin 1969
0.60
Bursaspor
0.60
Kayserispor
0.60
Sarıyer
0.80
Batman Petrolspor
0.80
Iğdır FK
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Ümraniyespor
1.20
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Sivasspor
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Antalyaspor
2.00
Vanspor FK
2.20
Boluspor
2.20
Pendikspor
2.20
İstanbulspor
2.60
Keçiörengücü is 0.80 goals worse than Sarıyer in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Esenler Erokspor
61%
Bandırmaspor
60%
Bursaspor
59%
Manisa F.K.
55%
Antalyaspor
55%
Kayserispor
53%
Batman Petrolspor
52%
Ümraniyespor
52%
Pendikspor
51%
Sarıyer
50%
Iğdır FK
49%
Mardin 1969
49%
Sivasspor
48%
Bodrum FK
46%
Keçiörengücü
45%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
İstanbulspor
44%
Muğlaspor
43%
Vanspor FK
42%
Boluspor
41%
Keçiörengücü is 4.3 percentage points worse than Sarıyer in terms of average possession (45% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Keçiörengücü
For 5.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 10.8 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sarıyer
For 3.5 · Against 3.2 · Total 6.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Keçiörengücü
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
8.5
7.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
23.6
23.9
23.3
vs Stronger (6)
6.4
5.5
7.0
3.7
3.5
3.8
20.2
24.0
17.7
vs Similar (44)
8.4
8.8
7.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
24.0
23.8
24.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
27%
29%
26%
60%
62%
58%
75%
71%
78%
% under line
73%
71%
74%
40%
38%
42%
25%
29%
22%
This opponent (Sarıyer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sarıyer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (48)
7.8
7.8
7.8
4.5
5.0
4.0
23.4
25.3
21.6
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
7.0
10.0
6.5
6.0
7.0
24.5
25.0
24.0
vs Similar (46)
7.8
7.8
7.7
4.4
4.9
3.9
23.4
25.3
21.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
31%
24%
38%
62%
74%
52%
60%
76%
43%
% under line
69%
76%
62%
38%
26%
48%
40%
24%
57%
This opponent (Keçiörengücü) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kayserispor
10.0
Sivasspor
9.5
Antalyaspor
9.1
Bursaspor
9.1
Bandırmaspor
9.1
Iğdır FK
9.0
Bodrum FK
8.9
Ümraniyespor
8.9
Fatih Karagümrük
8.9
Esenler Erokspor
8.8
Manisa F.K.
8.7
Mardin 1969
8.6
İstanbulspor
8.4
Pendikspor
8.4
Boluspor
8.3
Vanspor FK
8.3
Keçiörengücü
8.2
Batman Petrolspor
8.0
Sarıyer
7.8
Muğlaspor
6.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Muğlaspor
6.8
Batman Petrolspor
5.8
Antalyaspor
5.3
Pendikspor
5.1
Sarıyer
5.1
Vanspor FK
5.1
Boluspor
5.1
Manisa F.K.
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
4.9
Iğdır FK
4.9
Bandırmaspor
4.7
İstanbulspor
4.7
Keçiörengücü
4.6
Kayserispor
4.6
Bursaspor
4.5
Fatih Karagümrük
4.3
Ümraniyespor
4.3
Bodrum FK
4.2
Mardin 1969
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Muğlaspor
30.8
Bursaspor
28.9
Fatih Karagümrük
28.7
Vanspor FK
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.4
Pendikspor
26.5
Batman Petrolspor
26.2
Mardin 1969
25.6
Boluspor
25.6
Kayserispor
24.8
Bandırmaspor
24.2
Bodrum FK
23.9
Iğdır FK
23.8
Keçiörengücü
23.7
Sivasspor
23.7
Manisa F.K.
23.6
Sarıyer
23.4
Ümraniyespor
23.2
İstanbulspor
23.1
Esenler Erokspor
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
31.6%
Under 9.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.6%
Under 3.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
60.9%
Under 21.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Keçiörengücü or Draw
82.0%
Avg Implied 70.2% · @ 1.31
Edge
+11.9%
58%
24%
18%
covers Keçiörengücü + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Keçiörengücü or Sarıyer
75.7%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
+3.6%
58%
24%
18%
covers Keçiörengücü + Sarıyer
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.25
Draw or Sarıyer
42.3%
Avg Implied 57.7% · @ 1.60
Edge
-15.4%
58%
24%
18%
covers Draw + Sarıyer
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.63
William Hil
1.62
Betfair
1.62
BetVictor
1.60
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Keçiörengücü over/under 0.5
Over
84.8%
@ 1.23+9.2%
Under
15.2%
@ 3.81-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Under
Pinnacle
3.96
Betano
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Keçiörengücü over/under 1.5
Over
56.2%
@ 2.09+11.9%
Under
43.8%
@ 1.66-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathonbet
2.09
1xBet
2.09
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Unibet
1.65
Keçiörengücü over/under 2.5
Over
29.2%
@ 4.53+8.7%
Under
70.8%
@ 1.17-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Keçiörengücü over/under 3.5
Over
12.3%
@ 10.75+3.4%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.04-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Sarıyer over/under 0.5
Over
62.1%
@ 1.33-7.2%
Under
37.9%
@ 3.00+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.10
Pinnacle
3.07
1xBet
2.98
Marathonbet
2.93
Sarıyer over/under 1.5
Over
25.3%
@ 2.59-10.4%
Under
74.7%
@ 1.45+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.70
1xBet
2.61
Marathonbet
2.61
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Sarıyer over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
@ 5.95-8.0%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.09+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Sarıyer over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
@ 13.88-5.2%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Keçiörengücü, so a minus line means Keçiörengücü give that many goals of a start and Sarıyer receive them. At -1, Keçiörengücü must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Keçiörengücü win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Keçiörengücü)
Keçiörengücü -2
16.4%
@ 9.05+6.5%
Draw -2
18.1%
@ 6.53+4.3%
Sarıyer +2
65.5%
@ 1.18-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.10
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.05
Away
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Handicap -1 (Keçiörengücü)
Keçiörengücü -1
34.5%
@ 3.96+12.5%
Draw -1
23.2%
@ 3.73-0.1%
Sarıyer +1
42.3%
@ 1.59-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Unibet
3.10
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.10
Away
Unibet
1.63
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.53
Handicap +1 (Keçiörengücü)
Keçiörengücü +1
82.0%
@ 1.33+15.7%
Draw +1
11.5%
@ 4.65-7.5%
Sarıyer -1
6.5%
@ 6.03-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.30
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Away
Marathonbet
6.05
Bet365
6.00
Handicap +2 (Keçiörengücü)
Keçiörengücü +2
93.5%
@ 1.11+11.2%
Draw +2
4.8%
@ 8.50-5.9%
Sarıyer -2
1.7%
@ 13.00-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Away
Bet365
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Keçiörengücü
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.70
1.60
0.67
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (26)
1.42
0.65
1.64
0.57
1.17
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarıyer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sarıyer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.69
0.31
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.45
0.73
0.27
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Keçiörengücü) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.6%
@ 1.36+4.6%
Under 0.5
27.4%
@ 2.88-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.38
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.07
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.82
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.7%
@ 2.67-1.0%
Under 1.5
66.3%
@ 1.42+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.76
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.66
1xBet
2.66
Under
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.9%
@ 6.40-1.6%
Under 2.5
87.1%
@ 1.08+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
1xBet
6.25
Under
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Keçiörengücü over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.8%
@ 1.91+5.4%
Under
46.2%
@ 1.79-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Keçiörengücü over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.5%
@ 5.55+1.0%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.10-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.65
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Keçiörengücü over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.9%
@ 10.25-5.2%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Sarıyer over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.8%
@ 2.19-8.1%
Under
66.2%
@ 1.58+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
Under
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Sarıyer over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.8%
@ 7.00-6.3%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.05+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Sarıyer over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
@ 11.25-7.2%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Keçiörengücü
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
1.20
0.53
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.73
1.21
0.57
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarıyer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sarıyer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
1.12
0.31
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.79
0.59
1.13
0.27
0.43
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Keçiörengücü) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.5%
@ 1.21+0.4%
Under 0.5
23.5%
@ 3.84-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.85
William Hil
3.80
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.78
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.0%
@ 2.02-2.9%
Under 1.5
57.0%
@ 1.71+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Under
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.5%
@ 4.17+0.3%
Under 2.5
77.5%
@ 1.18-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.40
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Keçiörengücü over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.7%
@ 1.63+4.0%
Under
39.3%
@ 2.14-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Keçiörengücü over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.0%
@ 4.00+0.0%
Under
77.0%
@ 1.20-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Keçiörengücü over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
@ 8.25-5.3%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.04+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Sarıyer over/under 0.5 2H
Over
38.1%
@ 1.83-12.3%
Under
61.9%
@ 1.86+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Sarıyer over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.5%
@ 5.08-6.6%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.13+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Sarıyer over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
@ 9.75-7.2%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.03+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+5.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.2%
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.9%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
Home +2 handicap
93.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+11.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
+6.3%
Under 5.5
93.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
+1.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+8.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.5%
1.13
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
+6.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
87.7%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-3.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.06
+1.6%
Under 11.5 corners
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
-
+9.2%
Under 4.5
83.9%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+0.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-1.0%
Home or Draw
82.0%
1.31
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Betfair
1.30
+11.9%
Home +1 handicap
82.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.30
-
-
-
+15.7%
Under 10.5 corners
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.9%
1.25
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+5.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-0.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-0.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.21
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+0.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.7%
1.28
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.25
+3.6%
Away under 1.5 goals
74.7%
1.45
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
+10.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.6%
1.36
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.38
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
+4.6%
Under 25.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.8%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-8.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Keçiörengücü
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Diouf100%
İbrahim Akdağ33%
Süleyman Luş33%
Oğuzcan Çalışkan33%
Francis Ezeh25%
Ishak Karaoğul25%
H. Ayan25%
Moryke Fofana0%
O. Roshi0%
Jefferson0%
Wellington Nascimento0%
A. Çelik0%
E. Satılmış0%
M. Keskin0%
Enes Yilmaz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
İbrahim Akdağ100%
E. Satılmış33%
M. Diouf25%
O. Roshi25%
Wellington Nascimento25%
Francis Ezeh25%
M. Keskin25%
Moryke Fofana0%
Jefferson0%
A. Çelik0%
Süleyman Luş0%
Ishak Karaoğul0%
Oğuzcan Çalışkan0%
H. Ayan0%
Enes Yilmaz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
İbrahim Akdağ33%
O. Roshi25%
Jefferson25%
Francis Ezeh25%
H. Ayan25%
M. Diouf0%
Moryke Fofana0%
Wellington Nascimento0%
A. Çelik0%
E. Satılmış0%
M. Keskin0%
Süleyman Luş0%
Ishak Karaoğul0%
Oğuzcan Çalışkan0%
Enes Yilmaz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Francis Ezeh75%
M. Diouf50%
İbrahim Akdağ33%
Oğuzcan Çalışkan33%
Moryke Fofana0%
O. Roshi0%
Jefferson0%
Wellington Nascimento0%
A. Çelik0%
E. Satılmış0%
M. Keskin0%
Süleyman Luş0%
Ishak Karaoğul0%
H. Ayan0%
Enes Yilmaz0%
Sarıyer
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Kör67%
Tunahan Ergul33%
Eşref Korkmazoğlu33%
C. Osmanpaşa0%
E. Karaca0%
C. Karayel0%
André Poko0%
I. Šehić0%
Doğan Can Davas0%
Marcos Silva0%
H. Yeşilyurt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Silva67%
C. Osmanpaşa33%
C. Karayel33%
I. Šehić33%
Doğan Can Davas33%
Tunahan Ergul0%
E. Karaca0%
André Poko0%
B. Kör0%
Eşref Korkmazoğlu0%
H. Yeşilyurt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
E. Karaca33%
B. Kör33%
Marcos Silva33%
C. Osmanpaşa0%
Tunahan Ergul0%
C. Karayel0%
André Poko0%
I. Šehić0%
Doğan Can Davas0%
Eşref Korkmazoğlu0%
H. Yeşilyurt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
B. Kör33%
C. Osmanpaşa0%
Tunahan Ergul0%
E. Karaca0%
C. Karayel0%
André Poko0%
I. Šehić0%
Doğan Can Davas0%
Marcos Silva0%
Eşref Korkmazoğlu0%
H. Yeşilyurt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
Keçiörengücü and Sarıyer have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (10)
€10m
BF (10)
€6m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
BOL (5)
€1m
Keçiörengücü and Sarıyer have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (5)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
Keçiörengücü and Sarıyer have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ANT (11)
€7m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
Keçiörengücü's defence is €1m more valuable than Sarıyer's (€3m vs €2m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Batman Petrolspor
Bursaspor
Kayserispor
Mardin 1969
Iğdır FK
Manisa F.K.
Muğlaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
Antalyaspor
Pendikspor
Esenler Erokspor
Bodrum FK
Vanspor FK
Ümraniyespor
Sivasspor
İstanbulspor
Boluspor