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Keflavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Result & Analysis

Date: 29/04/2023
Time: 17:00
Final 1-3
Keflavik
Keflavik
Vs
47%
24%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Keflavik win✗ Miss
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar win✓ Hit
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-803L84W32W12L23L71W40W21W02L00DH·VIK11/09A·FRA17/09H·IA 02/10A·IBV10/10H·FH 15/10A·LEI22/10H·FRA29/10A·FYL10/04H·KR 15/04A·KA 23/04
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.701.671.672.201.73
vs Stronger (4)1.003.501.003.001.004.00
vs Similar (23)1.831.521.671.582.001.45
vs Weaker (3)4.000.673.000.004.501.00
Clean sheet %23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D03L21W21W31W23L10W12L03L21WH·FRA11/09A·BRE17/09H·FH 05/10H·KEF10/10A·FRA16/10A·IA 22/10H·LEI29/10A·VAL10/04A·KA 15/04H·BRE23/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.871.531.331.532.40
vs Stronger (13)1.152.081.331.671.002.43
vs Similar (17)1.821.711.671.112.002.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.7%
Under 2.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.1%
Under 3.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.3%
No
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
6.9%
3-1
5.8%
2-0
5.8%
1-0
5.1%
3-2
4.5%
Keflavik goals ↓
IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals →
01234
04.0%3.8%3.6%1.8%0.7%
15.1%10%7.0%3.6%1.4%
25.8%9.0%6.9%3.5%1.3%
33.8%5.8%4.5%2.3%0.9%
41.9%2.9%2.2%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Keflavik goals (down), columns = IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.44
Valur Reykjavik
2.04
Stjarnan
1.70
Breidablik
1.52
KA Akureyri
1.52
FH hafnarfjordur
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.37
Fylkir
1.07
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
HK Kopavogur
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.93
Keflavik
0.59
Keflavik is 0.33 points worse than IBV Vestmannaeyjar in terms of average points per game (0.59 vs 0.93).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.81
Valur Reykjavik
2.44
Stjarnan
2.04
Breidablik
1.93
FH hafnarfjordur
1.81
Fylkir
1.59
KA Akureyri
1.56
HK Kopavogur
1.52
Fram Reykjavik
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.41
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.15
Keflavik
1.00
Keflavik is 0.15 goals worse than IBV Vestmannaeyjar in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.15).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stjarnan
1.07
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.11
Valur Reykjavik
1.30
KA Akureyri
1.67
KR Reykjavik
1.78
Breidablik
1.81
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.85
Keflavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Fylkir
2.04
HK Kopavogur
2.04
Fram Reykjavik
2.07
Keflavik is 0.15 goals worse than IBV Vestmannaeyjar in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KeflavikKeflavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L43W21W02L21W30W10W01L00D00DH·VIK11/09A·FRA17/09H·IA 02/10A·IBV10/10H·FH 15/10A·LEI22/10H·FRA29/10A·FYL10/04H·KR 15/04A·KA 23/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.901.000.670.801.13
vs Stronger (4)0.252.750.502.000.003.50
vs Similar (23)0.910.701.080.500.730.91
vs Weaker (3)1.670.001.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D20W30W10W00D10W01L11DH·FRA11/09A·BRE17/09H·FH 05/10H·KEF10/10A·FRA16/10A·IA 22/10H·LEI29/10A·VAL10/04A·KA 15/04H·BRE23/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.800.930.731.000.87
vs Stronger (13)0.850.770.670.831.000.71
vs Similar (17)1.060.821.110.671.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KeflavikKeflavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D41W11D10W02L41W30W20W02L00DH·VIK11/09A·FRA17/09H·IA 02/10A·IBV10/10H·FH 15/10A·LEI22/10H·FRA29/10A·FYL10/04H·KR 15/04A·KA 23/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.800.671.001.400.60
vs Stronger (4)0.750.750.501.001.000.50
vs Similar (23)0.910.830.581.081.270.55
vs Weaker (3)2.330.672.000.002.501.00
Clean sheet %47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D03L10W01L01L13L10W02L02L10WH·FRA11/09A·BRE17/09H·FH 05/10H·KEF10/10A·FRA16/10A·IA 22/10H·LEI29/10A·VAL10/04A·KA 15/04H·BRE23/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.070.600.600.531.53
vs Stronger (13)0.311.310.670.830.001.71
vs Similar (17)0.760.880.560.441.001.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
Keflavik and IBV Vestmannaeyjar have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Keflavik and IBV Vestmannaeyjar have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Keflavik and IBV Vestmannaeyjar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
Keflavik and IBV Vestmannaeyjar have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
KEF wins
2
Draws
1
IV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Keflavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar · H/A from KEF
DateH/AGameScore
10/10/22AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs KEF2-1
30/07/22AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs KEF2-2
07/05/22HKEF Vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar3-3

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/23AKA Akureyri Vs KEF0-0
15/04/23HKEF Vs KR Reykjavik0-2
10/04/23AFylkir Vs KEF1-2
29/10/22HKEF Vs Fram Reykjavik4-0
22/10/22ALeiknir R. Vs KEF1-7
15/10/22HKEF Vs FH hafnarfjordur2-3
10/10/22AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs KEF2-1
02/10/22HKEF Vs IA Akranes3-2
17/09/22AFram Reykjavik Vs KEF4-8
11/09/22HKEF Vs Vikingur Reykjavik0-3

IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/23HIV Vs Breidablik2-1
15/04/23AKA Akureyri Vs IV3-0
10/04/23AValur Reykjavik Vs IV2-1
29/10/22HIV Vs Leiknir R.1-0
22/10/22AIA Akranes Vs IV3-2
16/10/22AFram Reykjavik Vs IV1-3
10/10/22HIV Vs Keflavik2-1
05/10/22HIV Vs FH hafnarfjordur2-1
17/09/22ABreidablik Vs IV3-0
11/09/22HIV Vs Fram Reykjavik2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Keflavik
Keflavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.37
HomeLWLWL1.20
AwayWLWWD1.53
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%33%47%
AVG goals3.633.333.93
Over 1.5 %83%80%87%
Over 2.5 %73%73%73%
Over 3.5 %47%53%40%
Scored1.931.672.20
Conceded1.701.671.73
BTTS57%53%60%
Clean Sheet23%20%27%
Corners---
Cards---
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLW1.17
HomeDWWWW1.73
AwayLWLLL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%47%13%
AVG goals3.402.873.93
Over 1.5 %87%80%93%
Over 2.5 %80%73%87%
Over 3.5 %43%33%53%
Scored1.531.531.53
Conceded1.871.332.40
BTTS67%67%67%
Clean Sheet10%20%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik2766
78%
2.4
7630+46
3.9
93%
78%
63%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.81.1
-
2Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik2755
63%
2.0
6635+31
3.7
89%
70%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.41.3
-
3StjarnanStjarnan2746
52%
1.7
5529+26
3.1
93%
52%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.01.1
-
4BreidablikBreidablik2741
44%
1.5
5249+3
3.7
85%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.8
-
5KA AkureyriKA Akureyri2741
44%
1.5
4245-3
3.2
85%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.7
-
6FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur2740
44%
1.5
4954-5
3.8
93%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.82.0
-
7KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik2737
37%
1.4
3848-10
3.2
85%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.8
-
8FylkirFylkir2729
26%
1.1
4355-12
3.6
89%
70%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.0
-
9HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur2727
22%
1.0
4155-14
3.6
81%
59%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.0
-
10Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik2727
26%
1.0
4056-16
3.6
81%
70%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.52.1
-
11IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar2725
22%
0.9
3150-19
3.0
85%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.9
-
12KeflavikKeflavik2716
7%
0.6
2754-27
3.0
85%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.02.0
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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