In this high-scoring matchup between Keflavik and KA Akureyri, recent form suggests that both teams have struggled to find their footing. Keflavik is coming off a defeat, while KA Akureyri has suffered two consecutive losses. This trend is reflected in their away and home forms, respectively, with Keflavik averaging 2.73 goals scored and 1.47 conceded at home, and KA Akureyri averaging 1.25 scored and 2.0 conceded away from home.
The model predicts a home win with a 53% chance, a draw with 21%, and an away win with 26%. The expected total goals is 3.9, indicating a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 2-1, with a probability of 8.6%. The model's selection is the home win, with a suggested pick of Over 1.5, Over 2.5, and BTTS Yes, with probabilities of 90.7%, 74.5%, and 72.3%, respectively. Keflavik has a 53% chance of winning at home, a 21% chance of drawing, and a 26% chance of losing to KA Akureyri.
Results analysis
Keflavik secured a 3-0 win over KA Akureyri, extending their recent form woes for the visitors. The model's call for a home win proved correct, as Keflavik edged out the favourite by a convincing margin. The model's selection of a home win held a pre-match probability of 53%.
The model's Over 1.5 prediction hit, with a probability of 90.7%, while the Over 2.5 pick also came to fruition, boasting a 74.5% chance. Unfortunately, the BTTS Yes selection missed, with a 72.3% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Keflavik win✓ Hit
53.1%
Avg Implied 49.0% · @ 1.86
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.14
Dafabet
2.08
Unibet
1.92
Betfair
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Draw✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.89
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.38
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Betano
4.05
10Bet
4.00
KA Akureyri win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.31
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.71
Marathonbet
3.60
1xBet
3.59
Betano
3.50
Superbet
3.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Keflavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.90
3.07
1.57
1.69
2.19
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
-
-
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (24)
2.29
1.92
2.75
1.58
1.83
2.25
vs Weaker (4)
3.25
1.00
5.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KA Akureyri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.63
1.76
1.24
1.92
2.15
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.83
1.54
1.87
1.27
1.78
2.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.25
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.7%
@ 1.09+6.3%
Under 1.5
9.3%
@ 5.90-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Under
Betfair
7.00
Pinnacle
6.70
Marathonbet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
888Sport
6.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
74.5%
@ 1.36+7.0%
Under 2.5
25.5%
@ 2.82-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.07
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.4%
@ 1.94+6.8%
Under 3.5
45.6%
@ 1.77-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.19
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
Betfair
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
72.3%
@ 1.37+5.5%
No
27.7%
@ 2.76-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.40
William Hil
1.40
No
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.84
William Hil
2.80
888Sport
2.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.6%@ 8.22+3.1%
1-1
8.2%@ 8.04+2.6%
2-2
6.8%@ 10.18+2.4%
3-1
6.6%@ 11.90+2.8%
1-2
5.9%@ 11.09+1.9%
2-0
5.4%@ 12.12+1.7%
3-2
5.2%@ 14.98+2.2%
3-0 ✓
4.2%@ 17.18+1.5%
Keflavik goals ↓
KA Akureyri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
2.5%
2.6%
1.4%
0.5%
1
4.0%
8.2%
5.9%
3.1%
1.2%
2
5.4%
8.6%
6.8%
3.6%
1.4%
3
4.2%
6.6%
5.2%
2.8%
1.1%
4
2.4%
3.8%
3.0%
1.6%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Keflavik goals (down), columns = KA Akureyri goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.14
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.71
Stjarnan
1.71
FH hafnarfjordur
1.62
IA Akranes
1.50
Keflavik
1.44
Thor Akureyri
1.25
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik
0.71
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.25
Keflavik is 0.57 points better than KA Akureyri in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.57
Fram Reykjavik
2.56
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.43
IA Akranes
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
1.86
KA Akureyri
1.75
Stjarnan
1.71
Keflavik
1.67
Breidablik
1.25
FH hafnarfjordur
1.12
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.88
Keflavik is 0.08 goals worse than KA Akureyri in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.88
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.43
Keflavik
1.44
KR Reykjavik
1.71
Breidablik
1.75
Fram Reykjavik
1.78
Thor Akureyri
1.88
IA Akranes
1.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.12
KA Akureyri
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Stjarnan
2.43
Keflavik is 0.93 goals better than KA Akureyri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 2.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Keflavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.97
1.14
0.79
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.04
1.08
0.83
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KA Akureyri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.65
0.65
0.85
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.58
0.67
0.60
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.83
0.50
1.00
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Keflavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.93
1.93
0.79
1.00
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
-
-
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.38
0.88
1.67
0.75
1.08
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.50
3.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KA Akureyri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.00
1.12
0.59
1.08
1.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.17
0.96
1.20
0.67
1.11
1.44
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
1.17
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.10
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
74.5%
1.36
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.36
+7.0%
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
72.3%
1.37
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.40
William Hil
1.40
+5.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
Keflavik and KA Akureyri have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Keflavik and KA Akureyri have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
Keflavik and KA Akureyri have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
Keflavik and KA Akureyri have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Fram Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
FH hafnarfjordur
Vikingur Reykjavik
IA Akranes
Stjarnan
Thor Akureyri
Breidablik
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar