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Keflavik vs Selfoss Result & Analysis

Date: 03/07/2025
Time: 19:15
Final 3-2
Keflavik
Keflavik
Vs
58%
24%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Selfoss
Selfoss
Iceland: 1. Deild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Keflavik win✓ Hit
58.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Selfoss win✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L52W42W60W03L11D11D24L00D13LH·THR09/05H·VIK14/05A·THO18/05H·LEI23/05H·HK 30/05H·FYL09/06A·VÖL14/06A·STJ18/06H·IR 22/06A·NJA26/06
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.301.332.501.172.001.58
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)2.081.461.931.212.301.80
vs Weaker (6)3.170.834.501.000.500.50
Clean sheet %30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Selfoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SelfossSelfoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L14L12L02L04L14L20W02L02L22DA·FYL09/05H·THO13/05H·VÖL17/05A·IR 23/05H·NJA30/05A·HK 04/06A·FJO09/06H·THR14/06A·THO22/06H·LEI27/06
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.602.331.752.251.432.43
vs Stronger (2)3.500.503.500.50--
vs Similar (23)1.262.571.002.781.432.43
vs Weaker (5)2.402.002.402.00--
Clean sheet %10% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.7%
0-0
6.6%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
5.0%
Keflavik goals ↓
Selfoss goals →
01234
06.6%4.4%2.6%0.9%0.2%
19.7%11%5.0%1.6%0.4%
210%9.9%4.8%1.6%0.4%
36.5%6.3%3.1%1.0%0.2%
43.1%3.0%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Keflavik goals (down), columns = Selfoss goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Thor Akureyri
2.05
Njardvik
1.92
HK Kopavogur
1.84
Keflavik
1.72
Throttur Reykjavik
1.71
IR Reykjavik
1.68
Völsungur
1.14
Leiknir R.
1.05
Fylkir
1.05
Grindavik
0.95
Selfoss
0.86
Fjolnir
0.68
Keflavik is 0.86 points better than Selfoss in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 0.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Keflavik
2.44
Thor Akureyri
2.32
Njardvik
2.17
HK Kopavogur
2.12
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Grindavik
1.73
IR Reykjavik
1.73
Völsungur
1.64
Fylkir
1.55
Fjolnir
1.45
Selfoss
1.14
Leiknir R.
1.09
Keflavik is 1.30 goals better than Selfoss in terms of goals scored per game (2.44 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Njardvik
1.21
IR Reykjavik
1.23
Thor Akureyri
1.41
Fylkir
1.45
HK Kopavogur
1.52
Keflavik
1.64
Leiknir R.
1.82
Throttur Reykjavik
1.83
Selfoss
2.00
Völsungur
2.36
Fjolnir
2.41
Grindavik
2.77
Keflavik is 0.36 goals better than Selfoss in terms of goals conceded per game (1.64 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KeflavikKeflavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D22D41W20W02L10W01L23L00D00DH·THR09/05H·VIK14/05A·THO18/05H·LEI23/05H·HK 30/05H·FYL09/06A·VÖL14/06A·STJ18/06H·IR 22/06A·NJA26/06
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.631.170.561.170.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.120.710.930.641.400.80
vs Weaker (6)1.330.332.000.250.000.50
Clean sheet %57% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Selfoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SelfossSelfoss

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L13L00D00D02L02L10W01L01L10WA·FYL09/05H·THO13/05H·VÖL17/05A·IR 23/05H·NJA30/05A·HK 04/06A·FJO09/06H·THR14/06A·THO22/06H·LEI27/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.230.501.310.711.14
vs Stronger (2)1.000.501.000.50--
vs Similar (23)0.521.430.221.890.711.14
vs Weaker (5)0.800.600.800.60--
Clean sheet %27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KeflavikKeflavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L30W01L40W01L01L10W01L00D13LH·THR09/05H·VIK14/05A·THO18/05H·LEI23/05H·HK 30/05H·FYL09/06A·VÖL14/06A·STJ18/06H·IR 22/06A·NJA26/06
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.701.330.610.830.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.960.751.000.570.901.00
vs Weaker (6)1.830.502.500.750.500.00
Clean sheet %47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Selfoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SelfossSelfoss

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L12L02L02L12L10W01L01L12LA·FYL09/05H·THO13/05H·VÖL17/05A·IR 23/05H·NJA30/05A·HK 04/06A·FJO09/06H·THR14/06A·THO22/06H·LEI27/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.101.250.940.711.29
vs Stronger (2)2.500.002.500.00--
vs Similar (23)0.741.130.780.890.711.29
vs Weaker (5)1.601.401.601.40--
Clean sheet %30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Selfoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (7)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TR (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
KEF wins
0
Draws
0
SEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Keflavik vs Selfoss · H/A from KEF
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/25HKEF Vs Selfoss3-0

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/06/25ANjardvik Vs KEF3-1
22/06/25HKEF Vs IR Reykjavik0-0
18/06/25AStjarnan Vs KEF4-2
14/06/25AVölsungur Vs KEF1-1
09/06/25HKEF Vs Fylkir1-1
30/05/25HKEF Vs HK Kopavogur0-3
23/05/25HKEF Vs Leiknir R.6-0
18/05/25AThor Akureyri Vs KEF2-4
14/05/25HKEF Vs Vikingur Olafsiik5-2
09/05/25HKEF Vs Throttur Reykjavik0-1

SelfossSelfoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/06/25HSEL Vs Leiknir R.2-2
22/06/25AThor Akureyri Vs SEL2-0
14/06/25HSEL Vs Throttur Reykjavik0-2
09/06/25AFjolnir Vs SEL0-2
04/06/25AHK Kopavogur Vs SEL4-1
30/05/25HSEL Vs Njardvik0-4
23/05/25AIR Reykjavik Vs SEL2-0
17/05/25HSEL Vs Völsungur1-2
13/05/25HSEL Vs Thor Akureyri1-4
09/05/25AFylkir Vs SEL2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Keflavik
Keflavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLDL1.76
HomeWWLDD2.04
AwayWWDLL1.41
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%61%36%
AVG goals3.423.613.18
Over 1.5 %78%82%73%
Over 2.5 %66%71%59%
Over 3.5 %52%46%59%
Scored2.062.431.59
Conceded1.361.181.59
BTTS58%57%59%
Clean Sheet28%32%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Selfoss
Selfoss
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.04
HomeLLLLD1.31
AwayLLLWL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%21%
AVG goals3.983.964.00
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %72%77%67%
Over 3.5 %52%54%50%
Scored1.661.851.46
Conceded2.322.122.54
BTTS68%69%67%
Clean Sheet10%15%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NjardvikNjardvik2446
54%
1.9
5229+23
3.4
96%
75%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.2
-
2HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur2546
56%
1.8
5338+15
3.6
92%
80%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.5
-
3Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri2245
64%
2.0
5131+20
3.7
95%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.31.4
-
4KeflavikKeflavik2543
52%
1.7
6141+20
4.1
92%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.41.6
-
5Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik2441
50%
1.7
4844+4
3.8
96%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
6IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik2237
45%
1.7
3827+11
3.0
77%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.2
-
7VölsungurVölsungur2225
32%
1.1
3652-16
4.0
95%
77%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.4
-
8FylkirFylkir2223
27%
1.0
3432+2
3.0
91%
64%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
9Leiknir R.Leiknir R.2223
27%
1.0
2440-16
2.9
77%
45%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.8
-
10GrindavikGrindavik2221
27%
1.0
3861-23
4.5
100%
82%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.8
-
11SelfossSelfoss2219
27%
0.9
2544-19
3.1
95%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12FjolnirFjolnir2215
14%
0.7
3253-21
3.9
95%
77%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.4
-
Iceland: 1. Deild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →

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