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Keflavik vs Thor Akureyri Result & Analysis

Date: 25/07/2025
Time: 18:00
Final 2-2
Keflavik
Keflavik
Vs
41%
22%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri
Iceland: 1. Deild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Keflavik win✗ Miss
40.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L11D11D24L00D13L32W41W23L54WH·HK 30/05H·FYL09/06A·VÖL14/06A·STJ18/06H·IR 22/06A·NJA26/06H·SEL03/07A·GRI07/07A·THR11/07H·FJO18/07
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.501.532.671.332.251.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)2.241.642.141.432.361.91
vs Weaker (5)3.801.004.501.001.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W13L11D13L02L20W50W12L20W21WH·FYL30/05H·VÖL04/06H·IR 09/06A·NJA14/06A·VES18/06H·SEL22/06A·FJO27/06H·THR03/07H·LEI12/07A·HK 18/07
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.071.672.061.282.082.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)2.051.762.081.382.002.38
vs Weaker (9)2.111.442.001.002.252.00
Clean sheet %20% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%06%116%220%320%416%521%6+
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.3%
Under 1.5
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
75.7%
Under 2.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.0%
Under 3.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
75.1%
No
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.2%
2-1
7.6%
2-2 ✓
7.3%
1-2
7.2%
3-1
5.1%
3-2
5.0%
2-3
4.7%
1-3
4.6%
Keflavik goals ↓
Thor Akureyri goals →
01234
02.6%2.9%3.5%2.3%1.1%
13.1%8.2%7.2%4.6%2.2%
23.9%7.6%7.3%4.7%2.3%
32.7%5.1%5.0%3.2%1.5%
41.4%2.6%2.5%1.6%0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Keflavik goals (down), columns = Thor Akureyri goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Thor Akureyri
2.05
Njardvik
1.92
HK Kopavogur
1.84
Keflavik
1.72
Throttur Reykjavik
1.71
IR Reykjavik
1.68
Völsungur
1.14
Leiknir R.
1.05
Fylkir
1.05
Grindavik
0.95
Selfoss
0.86
Fjolnir
0.68
Keflavik is 0.33 points worse than Thor Akureyri in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 2.05).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Keflavik
2.44
Thor Akureyri
2.32
Njardvik
2.17
HK Kopavogur
2.12
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Grindavik
1.73
IR Reykjavik
1.73
Völsungur
1.64
Fylkir
1.55
Fjolnir
1.45
Selfoss
1.14
Leiknir R.
1.09
Keflavik is 0.12 goals better than Thor Akureyri in terms of goals scored per game (2.44 vs 2.32).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Njardvik
1.21
IR Reykjavik
1.23
Thor Akureyri
1.41
Fylkir
1.45
HK Kopavogur
1.52
Keflavik
1.64
Leiknir R.
1.82
Throttur Reykjavik
1.83
Selfoss
2.00
Völsungur
2.36
Fjolnir
2.41
Grindavik
2.77
Keflavik is 0.23 goals worse than Thor Akureyri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.64 vs 1.41).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KeflavikKeflavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W01L23L00D00D22D21W11D23LH·HK 30/05H·FYL09/06A·VÖL14/06A·STJ18/06H·IR 22/06A·NJA26/06H·SEL03/07A·GRI07/07A·THR11/07H·FJO18/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.831.220.781.250.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.160.921.000.931.360.91
vs Weaker (5)1.600.402.000.250.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W12L01L00D02L10W20W00D20W21WH·FYL30/05H·VÖL04/06H·IR 09/06A·NJA14/06A·VES18/06H·SEL22/06A·FJO27/06H·THR03/07H·LEI12/07A·HK 18/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.830.940.671.251.08
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.950.900.920.691.001.25
vs Weaker (9)1.330.671.000.601.750.75
Clean sheet %47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KeflavikKeflavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L10W01L00D13L10W20W12L31WH·HK 30/05H·FYL09/06A·VÖL14/06A·STJ18/06H·IR 22/06A·NJA26/06H·SEL03/07A·GRI07/07A·THR11/07H·FJO18/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.701.440.561.000.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.080.721.140.501.001.00
vs Weaker (5)2.200.602.500.751.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W01L10W13L00D10W30W12L00D00DH·FYL30/05H·VÖL04/06H·IR 09/06A·NJA14/06A·VES18/06H·SEL22/06A·FJO27/06H·THR03/07H·LEI12/07A·HK 18/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.831.110.610.831.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.100.861.150.691.001.12
vs Weaker (9)0.780.781.000.400.501.25
Clean sheet %47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Keflavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keflavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.575.7%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes75.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
Keflavik and Thor Akureyri have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (7)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
Keflavik and Thor Akureyri have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TR (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Keflavik and Thor Akureyri have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
Keflavik and Thor Akureyri have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
KEF wins
1
Draws
0
TA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Keflavik vs Thor Akureyri · H/A from KEF
DateH/AGameScore
18/05/25AThor Akureyri Vs KEF2-4
31/07/24HKEF Vs Thor Akureyri3-2
25/05/24AThor Akureyri Vs KEF1-1

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/25HKEF Vs Fjolnir5-4
11/07/25AThrottur Reykjavik Vs KEF3-2
07/07/25AGrindavik Vs KEF1-4
03/07/25HKEF Vs Selfoss3-2
26/06/25ANjardvik Vs KEF3-1
22/06/25HKEF Vs IR Reykjavik0-0
18/06/25AStjarnan Vs KEF4-2
14/06/25AVölsungur Vs KEF1-1
09/06/25HKEF Vs Fylkir1-1
30/05/25HKEF Vs HK Kopavogur0-3

Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/25AHK Kopavogur Vs TA1-2
12/07/25HTA Vs Leiknir R.2-0
03/07/25HTA Vs Throttur Reykjavik1-2
27/06/25AFjolnir Vs TA0-5
22/06/25HTA Vs Selfoss2-0
18/06/25AVestri Vs TA2-0
14/06/25ANjardvik Vs TA3-1
09/06/25HTA Vs IR Reykjavik1-1
04/06/25HTA Vs Völsungur1-3
30/05/25HTA Vs Fylkir4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Keflavik
Keflavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.80
HomeLDDWW2.14
AwayDLLWL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%66%33%
AVG goals3.503.763.14
Over 1.5 %78%83%71%
Over 2.5 %66%72%57%
Over 3.5 %52%48%57%
Scored2.142.521.62
Conceded1.361.241.52
BTTS60%59%62%
Clean Sheet28%31%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.56
HomeLDWLW1.55
AwayWLLWW1.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%41%48%
AVG goals3.423.243.67
Over 1.5 %90%86%95%
Over 2.5 %62%55%71%
Over 3.5 %46%45%48%
Scored1.962.001.90
Conceded1.461.241.76
BTTS64%66%62%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NjardvikNjardvik2446
54%
1.9
5229+23
3.4
96%
75%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.2
-
2HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur2546
56%
1.8
5338+15
3.6
92%
80%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.5
-
3Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri2245
64%
2.0
5131+20
3.7
95%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.31.4
-
4KeflavikKeflavik2543
52%
1.7
6141+20
4.1
92%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.41.6
-
5Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik2441
50%
1.7
4844+4
3.8
96%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
6IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik2237
45%
1.7
3827+11
3.0
77%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.2
-
7VölsungurVölsungur2225
32%
1.1
3652-16
4.0
95%
77%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.4
-
8FylkirFylkir2223
27%
1.0
3432+2
3.0
91%
64%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
9Leiknir R.Leiknir R.2223
27%
1.0
2440-16
2.9
77%
45%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.8
-
10GrindavikGrindavik2221
27%
1.0
3861-23
4.5
100%
82%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.8
-
11SelfossSelfoss2219
27%
0.9
2544-19
3.1
95%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12FjolnirFjolnir2215
14%
0.7
3253-21
3.9
95%
77%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.4
-
Iceland: 1. Deild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →

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