This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Alloa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.13
1.38
0.81
2.07
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.24
0.89
0.78
1.75
1.75
vs Weaker (13)
2.23
1.00
2.00
0.86
2.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.7%
@ 1.79-4.6%
Under 2.5
52.3%
@ 1.96+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.6%
No
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
9.2%
0-0
8.8%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
7.6%
0-2 â
7.2%
2-0
5.5%
Kelty Hearts goals ↓
Alloa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
9.2%
7.2%
3.3%
1.1%
1
7.9%
14%
8.6%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.5%
7.6%
5.2%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.2%
3.0%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kelty Hearts goals (down), columns = Alloa goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Arbroath
1.78
Inverness CT
1.61
Cove Rangers
1.58
Queen of Sth
1.53
Stenhousemuir
1.47
Alloa
1.42
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Montrose
1.11
Annan Athletic
1.00
Dumbarton
0.97
Kelty Hearts is 0.19 points worse than Alloa in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.42).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cove Rangers
1.72
Arbroath
1.61
Alloa
1.53
Dumbarton
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Inverness CT
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.14
Kelty Hearts
1.11
Montrose
1.11
Kelty Hearts is 0.42 goals worse than Alloa in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.53).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inverness CT
1.06
Queen of Sth
1.14
Arbroath
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.22
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Kelty Hearts
1.28
Alloa
1.31
Montrose
1.36
Dumbarton
1.83
Annan Athletic
1.89
Kelty Hearts is 0.03 goals better than Alloa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.31).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Kelty Hearts
For 5.2 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Alloa
For 5.4 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 10.0 · Total 22.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
10.6
11.8
3.2
3.1
3.2
21.7
22.0
21.4
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
10.7
10.6
10.9
3.1
3.0
3.1
22.3
22.9
21.9
vs Weaker (18)
12.1
10.7
13.4
3.6
3.7
3.4
20.7
20.8
20.6
% over line
60%
48%
71%
38%
39%
37%
49%
62%
38%
% under line
40%
52%
29%
62%
61%
63%
51%
38%
62%
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Alloa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.1
10.2
3.9
3.6
4.1
20.2
20.0
20.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
10.8
10.6
11.1
3.6
3.2
4.0
19.7
19.5
19.9
vs Weaker (20)
9.2
9.3
9.1
4.3
4.3
4.3
20.9
20.9
21.0
% over line
58%
62%
54%
60%
54%
67%
40%
35%
46%
% under line
42%
38%
46%
40%
46%
33%
60%
65%
54%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
11.6
Kelty Hearts
11.1
Arbroath
11.0
Alloa
10.2
Queen of Sth
10.1
Montrose
10.1
Stenhousemuir
10.1
Cove Rangers
9.9
Inverness CT
9.9
Annan Athletic
9.6
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Annan Athletic
4.4
Stenhousemuir
4.1
Queen of Sth
4.0
Dumbarton
3.9
Alloa
3.9
Montrose
3.8
Arbroath
3.6
Kelty Hearts
3.6
Inverness CT
3.1
Cove Rangers
3.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
22.8
Queen of Sth
21.6
Kelty Hearts
21.4
Annan Athletic
21.0
Montrose
20.7
Arbroath
20.3
Alloa
20.2
Dumbarton
19.6
Inverness CT
19.4
Cove Rangers
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
60.5%
Under 9.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.5%
Under 3.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
40.0%
Under 21.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.36
0.50
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.83
0.00
0.86
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.64
0.83
0.17
1.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Alloa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.53
0.22
0.56
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.46
0.86
0.43
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.71
0.64
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.28
0.43
1.29
0.82
1.27
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.18
1.00
0.00
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Alloa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
0.88
0.31
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.71
0.67
0.22
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.54
1.14
0.43
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 2.5 cards
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kelty Hearts
Arbroath
Inverness CT
Cove Rangers
Stenhousemuir
Montrose
Annan Athletic
Dumbarton