Kelty Hearts’ defensive record at home is flawless, conceding no goals in recent matches, while Annan Athletic’s away form shows a modest 0.5 goals conceded per game against stronger opposition. The model projects a tight contest with a 34% chance of a home win, 34% draw, and 32% away win, making a home victory the favoured result. The expected total goals is 2.0, with the most likely scoreline 0-0 at 15.3% probability. The match is expected to be low-scoring, and the single most likely total of two goals reflects that. Suggested selections include Under 3.5 goals at 86.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 80.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 80.2%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.5% (miss), and Over 2.5 cards at 74.1% (miss). Kelty Hearts are expected to score 1.0 goal and concede none, while Annan Athletic should score 1.3 and concede 0.5 against this tier of opposition. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 34%, 34%, and 32% respectively.
Results analysis
Kelty Hearts’ 2-1 victory over Annan Athletic extended their recent form, turning a defeat into a win. The model’s favourite, a home win at 34%, proved correct, matching the final outcome. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals came through, with the 1-0 scoreline among the top three possibilities. The model’s selections performed well overall: Under 3.5 goals hit at 86.3%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 80.6%, and Under 25.5 fouls hit at 80.2%. However, Under 11.5 corners missed at 74.5% and Over 2.5 cards missed at 74.1%. Overall, the model’s call and majority of picks aligned with the match’s reality.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kelty Hearts win✓ Hit
33.8%
Avg Implied 62.1% · @ 1.48
Edge
-28.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied 20.7% · @ 4.43
Edge
+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied 17.1% · @ 5.36
Edge
+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.12
0.62
1.25
0.25
3.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.33
1.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
0.80
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.20
1.33
1.73
1.27
0.67
vs Stronger (16)
1.25
0.88
1.17
1.50
1.30
0.50
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.73
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
59.8%
Under 1.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
31.4%
@ 1.58-27.6%
Under 2.5
68.6%
@ 2.28+27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.7%
Under 3.5
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.5%
No
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.3%
1-1
14.9%
1-0
12.6%
0-1
12.2%
2-0
6.9%
2-1 ✓
6.7%
0-2
6.6%
1-2
6.6%
Kelty Hearts goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
12%
6.6%
2.1%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.6%
2.1%
0.5%
2
6.9%
6.7%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
3
2.3%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kelty Hearts goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Kelty Hearts is 0.61 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Kelty Hearts is 0.11 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Kelty Hearts is 0.64 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kelty Hearts
For 6.6 · Against 3.4 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 19.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 5.2 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (8)
10.0
9.8
10.2
2.6
3.8
1.5
19.8
20.8
18.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
10.0
8.5
13.0
3.7
4.5
2.0
19.0
22.0
13.0
vs Weaker (5)
10.0
11.0
9.3
2.0
3.0
1.3
20.2
19.5
20.7
% over line
50%
25%
75%
12%
25%
0%
25%
25%
25%
% under line
50%
75%
25%
88%
75%
100%
75%
75%
75%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.4
10.0
3.9
3.8
4.0
24.4
26.6
22.2
vs Stronger (30)
9.8
9.4
10.1
4.2
4.4
4.1
24.5
28.9
21.2
vs Similar (17)
8.9
9.0
8.8
3.4
3.1
3.8
23.6
23.6
23.5
vs Weaker (3)
12.7
14.0
12.0
3.3
4.0
3.0
28.0
29.0
27.5
% over line
44%
48%
40%
60%
60%
60%
68%
76%
60%
% under line
56%
52%
60%
40%
40%
40%
32%
24%
40%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
10.6
Stirling
10.4
Elgin
10.2
Stenhousemuir
10.1
Kelty Hearts
10.0
Cowdenbeath
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.7
Stranraer
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Forfar
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cowdenbeath
4.3
Elgin
4.2
Annan Athletic
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Stirling
3.8
Edinburgh City
3.7
Stranraer
3.5
Forfar
3.1
Albion Rvs
3.1
Kelty Hearts
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Annan Athletic
24.4
Cowdenbeath
23.7
Stirling
23.3
Stranraer
22.6
Stenhousemuir
22.5
Elgin
22.3
Albion Rvs
22.1
Forfar
22.0
Edinburgh City
22.0
Kelty Hearts
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.7%
Under 9.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.0%
Under 3.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
49.4%
Under 21.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.12
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
0.50
0.00
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.60
0.73
0.47
0.20
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.20
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.82
0.62
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.12
0.75
0.00
1.25
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
0.50
0.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
88% (+61pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.73
1.00
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.62
0.67
1.17
0.80
0.30
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.91
0.88
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer
Stirling
Elgin
Cowdenbeath