Kelty Hearts are tipped to win at home, a 48% chance that tops the 29% draw and 24% away win odds. The model expects 2.5 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single scoreline most likely to materialise is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% probability. Kelty’s home form shows they average 1.62 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against weaker opposition, while Annan Athletic, playing away against a stronger side, averages 1.88 goals scored and 0.62 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 84%, Under 11.5 corners at 78.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.4% (miss), Under 3.5 at 76.2% (miss), Over 1.5 at 72.1%, and Under 23.5 fouls at 71.9% (miss). Kelty Hearts’ recent form shows a 5-game record of LWLWL and a 0-2 loss to Stranraer, whereas Annan Athletic are coming off a win, 2-0 over Dumbarton, with a 5-game record of WLLWL.
Results analysis
Kelty Hearts’ 3-1 victory over Annan Athletic extended their recent run, with the home side coming off a defeat and the away side a win. The model’s favourite was a Home win at 48%, and it proved correct. The predicted 2-goal total fell short of the 3-goal reality, but the most likely score of 1-1 was still within the model’s top three. The suggested picks delivered a mixed bag: Under 25.5 fouls (84%) hit, Under 11.5 corners (78.8%) hit, Over 2.5 cards (78.1%) hit, while Under 5.5 cards (76.4%) missed, Under 3.5 (76.2%) missed, Over 1.5 (72.1%) hit and Under 23.5 fouls (71.9%) missed. The overall assessment shows the model’s core prediction stood, though several ancillary selections did not align with the final figures.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kelty Hearts win✓ Hit
47.9%
Avg Implied 59.7% · @ 1.54
Edge
-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied 22.5% · @ 4.09
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied 17.8% · @ 5.18
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.12
0.92
2.08
0.62
2.18
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
2.25
0.50
2.80
0.40
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
2.06
1.12
1.62
0.75
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
46% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.10
1.81
1.31
1.64
0.86
vs Stronger (13)
2.08
0.69
2.40
0.80
1.88
0.62
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.1%
Under 1.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.1%
@ 1.65-11.3%
Under 2.5
54.9%
@ 2.13+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
11.3%
0-0
9.6%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.1%
3-0
4.7%
Kelty Hearts goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
7.0%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
14%
6.1%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.2%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.7%
4.6%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kelty Hearts goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Kelty Hearts is 0.61 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Kelty Hearts is 0.11 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Kelty Hearts is 0.64 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kelty Hearts
For 6.6 · Against 3.7 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 9.8 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 3.8 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 11.1 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
9.2
9.5
9.0
3.2
3.4
2.9
20.5
19.9
21.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
10.2
10.6
9.7
3.5
3.4
3.7
19.6
18.6
21.3
vs Weaker (16)
8.8
8.8
8.8
3.0
3.4
2.6
20.9
20.8
21.1
% over line
46%
38%
55%
38%
46%
27%
38%
23%
55%
% under line
54%
62%
45%
62%
54%
73%
62%
77%
45%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.0
9.5
3.9
3.6
4.2
22.8
23.5
22.1
vs Stronger (26)
9.6
10.3
9.0
3.9
3.8
4.1
22.5
24.4
20.9
vs Similar (19)
9.5
9.4
9.6
3.5
3.1
4.1
22.5
22.3
22.7
vs Weaker (5)
11.4
11.5
11.3
5.4
5.5
5.3
25.8
24.5
26.7
% over line
50%
62%
38%
58%
58%
58%
54%
46%
62%
% under line
50%
38%
62%
42%
42%
42%
46%
54%
38%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cowdenbeath
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.7
Stenhousemuir
9.6
Albion Rvs
9.6
Stirling
9.4
Kelty Hearts
9.2
Stranraer
9.1
Elgin
9.1
Edinburgh City
8.9
Forfar
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stirling
4.1
Elgin
4.1
Stranraer
4.1
Annan Athletic
3.9
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.6
Forfar
3.3
Kelty Hearts
3.2
Albion Rvs
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stirling
23.6
Stranraer
23.1
Annan Athletic
22.8
Elgin
22.5
Stenhousemuir
22.4
Cowdenbeath
22.4
Forfar
22.0
Albion Rvs
21.8
Edinburgh City
21.1
Kelty Hearts
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.2%
Under 9.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.2%
Under 3.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
43.9%
Under 21.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.04
0.38
0.85
0.23
1.27
0.55
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.38
1.00
0.40
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.38
0.75
0.12
1.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.62
0.75
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.46
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.38
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.79
0.60
0.80
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
0.54
1.23
0.38
0.91
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.12
1.80
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.75
0.88
0.62
1.00
0.88
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.47
1.19
0.56
0.79
0.36
vs Stronger (13)
1.23
0.23
1.80
0.20
0.88
0.25
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.71
0.90
0.70
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer
Stirling
Elgin
Cowdenbeath