Kelty Hearts are the clear favourites, with a 49% chance of victory, 27% for a draw and 24% for Annan Athletic to win. The model expects a modest 2.6 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.1% chance. Kelty Hearts, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.0 goal scored and 0.5 conceded, while Annan Athletic, on the road to a stronger opponent, average 1.43 scored and 1.29 conceded. The suggested picks are: Under 25.5 fouls, 90.2%; Under 23.5 fouls, 80.9%; Under 5.5 cards, 80.6%; Over 1.5, 75.0%; Over 2.5 cards, 74.1%; and Under 3.5, 72.9%. The match is set to be a tight contest, with Kelty Hearts looking to convert their home advantage.
Results analysis
The match ended 1-1, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - Kelty Hearts, tipped for a 49% win - out of the picture. The model’s call was therefore incorrect. Kelty Hearts had been coming off a defeat, while Annan Athletic had just won, yet the game settled into a stalemate. The model’s selections performed well: Under 25.5 fouls hit at 90.2%, Under 23.5 fouls hit at 80.9%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 80.6%, Over 1.5 hit at 75.0%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 74.1%, and Under 3.5 hit at 72.9%. All six picks were settled, none missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kelty Hearts win✗ Miss
48.9%
Avg Implied 54.9% · @ 1.67
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.85
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied 21.3% · @ 4.30
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.43
1.27
1.27
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.27
1.54
1.31
1.38
1.23
1.69
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.33
2.06
1.25
1.50
1.43
vs Stronger (15)
2.13
1.13
2.75
1.00
1.43
1.29
vs Similar (12)
1.67
1.75
1.67
1.83
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.9%
@ 1.72-5.4%
Under 2.5
51.1%
@ 2.05+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 3.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.1%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
8.4%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
5.0%
Kelty Hearts goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
6.3%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.2%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.5%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.8%
5.0%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.9%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kelty Hearts goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Kelty Hearts is 0.14 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Kelty Hearts is 0.19 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Kelty Hearts is 0.14 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kelty Hearts
For 4.0 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 9.5 · Total 20.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 4.0 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.5 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.5 · Against 10.9 · Total 18.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.7
10.9
3.5
3.7
3.4
21.4
21.1
21.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
10.5
10.0
10.9
3.7
3.7
3.7
22.2
21.6
22.8
vs Weaker (12)
9.9
8.6
10.9
2.9
3.6
2.4
18.8
19.2
18.4
% over line
60%
50%
69%
40%
42%
38%
44%
38%
50%
% under line
40%
50%
31%
60%
58%
62%
56%
62%
50%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.3
10.2
3.9
4.0
3.8
20.2
21.5
18.8
vs Stronger (24)
8.9
8.8
9.0
3.5
3.4
3.6
19.7
20.2
19.3
vs Similar (21)
10.8
10.3
11.2
4.3
4.9
3.9
21.1
24.0
18.9
vs Weaker (5)
9.6
8.7
11.0
4.0
4.3
3.5
18.2
19.7
16.0
% over line
50%
44%
56%
58%
64%
52%
39%
46%
32%
% under line
50%
56%
44%
42%
36%
48%
61%
54%
68%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamilton
10.7
Montrose
10.4
Kelty Hearts
10.3
Cove Rangers
10.0
Falkirk
9.9
Queen of Sth
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.8
Alloa
9.7
Stirling
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamilton
4.2
Falkirk
3.9
Montrose
3.9
Stirling
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.9
Cove Rangers
3.8
Queen of Sth
3.6
Kelty Hearts
3.5
Edinburgh City
3.0
Alloa
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montrose
22.9
Falkirk
21.9
Hamilton
21.6
Kelty Hearts
21.4
Stirling
20.9
Cove Rangers
20.7
Annan Athletic
20.2
Queen of Sth
20.0
Edinburgh City
19.2
Alloa
18.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.0%
Under 9.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.9%
Under 3.5
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
32.9%
Under 21.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.20
0.27
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.54
0.23
0.31
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.88
0.75
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.88
0.57
0.43
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.75
1.17
0.83
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.97
1.07
1.00
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.88
1.00
1.08
1.08
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.70
1.19
0.50
0.86
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
1.47
0.47
2.00
0.12
0.86
0.86
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Falkirk
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Stirling
Edinburgh City