Kelty Hearts enter the match after a shaky run of defeats, while Elgin arrive unbeaten and having dispatched Stirling 4-0. The numbers suggest a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring an away win at 41%. Home victory sits at 32%, and a draw at 27%. The expected total is three goals, yet the most likely total is two, a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% probability, reflecting the evenly matched scoring and conceding figures: Kelty Hearts average one goal scored and 1.5 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Elgin average one goal scored and three conceded away.
The model’s selections include a 98.8% chance of Under 7.5, 96.7% for Under 6.5, 94.7% for Home under 3.5 goals, 92.3% for Away under 3.5 goals, 91.8% for Under 5.5, 84.8% for Away +2 handicap, 83.5% for Home under 2.5 goals, and 82.9% for Over 19.5 fouls. These picks reflect the low-scoring nature of the encounter and the defensive tendencies of both sides.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kelty Hearts win
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.57
1.14
1.43
0.81
1.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.60
1.00
1.50
1.20
1.70
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
1.33
1.50
1.25
0.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.77
1.67
1.53
1.80
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.45
2.91
1.83
2.83
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.83
1.11
1.56
0.67
2.11
1.56
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-1
6.9%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.2%
1-0
5.9%
Kelty Hearts goals ↓
Elgin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
6.9%
6.4%
3.4%
1.3%
1
5.9%
12%
8.9%
4.7%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.8%
6.2%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.3%
3.6%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kelty Hearts goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Kelty Hearts is 1.00 points worse than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Kelty Hearts is 2.00 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 3.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Kelty Hearts is 1.00 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kelty Hearts
For 5.1 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 14.5 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
For 3.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
10.0
3.1
3.0
3.2
23.9
23.4
24.3
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
-
13.0
2.0
-
2.0
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (32)
9.4
9.4
9.5
3.8
3.5
4.0
23.5
23.1
24.0
vs Weaker (17)
9.4
7.7
10.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
25.1
25.0
25.2
% over line
44%
47%
41%
50%
52%
48%
62%
47%
76%
% under line
56%
53%
59%
50%
48%
52%
38%
53%
24%
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.9
10.0
2.3
2.3
2.3
21.6
20.5
22.7
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
8.9
9.3
8.6
2.0
1.6
2.4
22.1
16.3
25.6
vs Weaker (34)
10.3
10.1
10.6
2.5
2.6
2.4
21.5
21.6
21.4
% over line
55%
53%
56%
32%
41%
22%
55%
47%
62%
% under line
45%
47%
44%
68%
59%
78%
45%
53%
38%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.5%
Under 9.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.2%
Under 3.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.9%
Under 21.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kelty Hearts or Draw
58.9%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
41%
covers Kelty Hearts + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts or Elgin
73.5%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
41%
covers Kelty Hearts + Elgin
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Elgin
67.6%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
41%
covers Draw + Elgin
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5
Over
79.6%
Under
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kelty Hearts, so a minus line means Kelty Hearts give that many goals of a start and Elgin receive them. At -1, Kelty Hearts must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kelty Hearts win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kelty Hearts)
Kelty Hearts -2
5.5%
Draw -2
9.7%
Elgin +2
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kelty Hearts)
Kelty Hearts -1
15.2%
Draw -1
17.2%
Elgin +1
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kelty Hearts)
Kelty Hearts +1
58.9%
Draw +1
19.8%
Elgin -1
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kelty Hearts)
Kelty Hearts +2
78.8%
Draw +2
12.6%
Elgin -2
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.43
0.64
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.50
0.20
0.60
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.89
1.00
0.75
0.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
0.93
0.47
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.09
1.00
0.83
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.56
0.89
0.22
1.11
0.89
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.71
0.79
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
1.10
0.80
0.90
0.70
1.30
vs Weaker (9)
0.22
0.44
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
0.73
1.07
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.82
0.83
2.00
0.60
1.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.56
0.67
0.44
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
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Clyde
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stranraer
Spartans
Annan Athletic
Stirling
Dumbarton