Kelty Hearts are tipped to win at home, the model’s favourite result, with a 43% chance of a victory, 30% for a draw and 27% for a Stirling win. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.3% probability. Kelty’s home form shows they average 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded against weaker opposition, while Stirling, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 81.7%, Under 3.5 goals at 79.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.1% and Under 11.5 corners at 70.6%. All five picks are presented with their exact probabilities. The match is expected to be a tight contest, with Kelty’s recent form, coming off a defeat, and Stirling’s recent loss both adding intrigue.
Results analysis
Kelty Hearts’ recent run, now a win after a defeat, set the tone for the home fixture, while Stirling’s form, also a win after a loss, hinted at a tight contest. The model’s favourite, a Home win at 43%, proved correct as Kelty Hearts secured a 1-0 victory. The model’s other selections performed well: Under 25.5 fouls hit at 81.7%, Under 3.5 goals hit at 79.3%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 78.3%, and Under 5.5 cards hit at 76.1%. Only Under 11.5 corners missed, falling short of the 70.6% probability. Overall, the predictions largely matched the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kelty Hearts win✓ Hit
42.6%
Avg Implied 43.9% · @ 2.10
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.55
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 30.1% · @ 3.06
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.53
1.33
1.40
1.40
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.36
1.68
1.46
1.54
1.25
1.83
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.80
0.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.03
1.87
1.07
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (17)
1.41
1.18
1.75
1.38
1.11
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.85
2.00
0.71
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.2%
@ 1.66-15.0%
Under 2.5
58.8%
@ 2.13+15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.7%
Under 3.5
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.8%
No
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0 ✓
11.6%
0-0
11.0%
2-1
8.6%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
4.9%
Kelty Hearts goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.5%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.5%
2.2%
0.5%
2
8.5%
8.6%
4.3%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.8%
3.8%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kelty Hearts goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Kelty Hearts is 0.14 points better than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Kelty Hearts is 0.25 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Kelty Hearts is 0.14 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kelty Hearts
For 4.3 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 4.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 9.4 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.6
11.2
3.7
3.7
3.7
22.0
21.7
22.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
10.5
10.2
10.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
22.6
22.4
22.8
vs Weaker (11)
10.1
7.6
12.2
2.9
3.2
2.7
19.6
18.8
20.3
% over line
58%
48%
68%
44%
44%
44%
48%
44%
52%
% under line
42%
52%
32%
56%
56%
56%
52%
56%
48%
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.2
9.8
4.2
3.9
4.6
21.2
20.3
22.1
vs Stronger (27)
9.0
8.2
9.8
4.8
4.7
4.9
22.1
22.4
21.8
vs Similar (23)
10.1
10.3
9.8
3.6
3.1
4.2
20.2
18.0
22.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
40%
52%
58%
40%
76%
48%
36%
60%
% under line
54%
60%
48%
42%
60%
24%
52%
64%
40%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Montrose
10.7
Hamilton
10.7
Kelty Hearts
10.4
Falkirk
9.9
Alloa
9.9
Queen of Sth
9.8
Edinburgh City
9.6
Stirling
9.5
Cove Rangers
9.5
Annan Athletic
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stirling
4.2
Hamilton
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.1
Falkirk
4.0
Montrose
4.0
Cove Rangers
3.8
Queen of Sth
3.8
Kelty Hearts
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.2
Alloa
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montrose
22.7
Falkirk
22.0
Kelty Hearts
22.0
Hamilton
22.0
Stirling
21.2
Queen of Sth
20.6
Annan Athletic
20.3
Cove Rangers
19.9
Edinburgh City
19.4
Alloa
18.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.1%
Under 9.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.6%
Under 3.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
47.3%
Under 21.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.33
0.40
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.68
0.38
0.46
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.87
0.67
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (17)
0.71
0.59
1.00
0.88
0.44
0.33
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.46
0.71
0.43
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.97
1.00
1.00
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.88
1.00
1.08
1.08
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (17)
0.71
0.59
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.38
1.29
0.29
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →