Kelty Hearts are tipped to win at home, a 48% chance that eclipses the 28% draw and 24% away win probabilities. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.2% chance. Kelty’s home form shows they average 1.8 goals scored and concede just one against weaker opposition, while Stirling, playing away against a stronger side, averages only 0.58 goals scored and concedes 2.33. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 85.0%, Under 5.5 cards at 84.8%, Over 1.5 at 74.6%, Over 8.5 corners at 74.3%, Under 3.5 at 73.4%, Under 23.5 fouls at 73.3%, and Under 4.5 cards at 71.2%. The model’s selection highlights these odds, with edge indications where noted.
Results analysis
Kelty Hearts’ 1-0 win over Stirling extended a winless run, with the home side finally breaking a string of defeats. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win at 48 percent, and that call proved correct. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 was not realised, but the 1-0 result still fell within the model’s 2-goal expectation. Among the suggested selections, Under 25.5 fouls at 85 percent hit, as did Over 8.5 corners at 74.3 percent, Under 3.5 fouls at 73.4 percent, and Under 23.5 fouls at 73.3 percent. The model’s picks for Under 5.5 cards at 84.8 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 74.6 percent, and Under 4.5 cards at 71.2 percent missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kelty Hearts win✓ Hit
48.4%
Avg Implied 40.4% · @ 2.28
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.61
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied 34.1% · @ 2.70
Edge
-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.77
1.13
1.47
1.67
2.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.89
0.80
1.70
1.56
2.11
vs Weaker (11)
1.82
1.55
1.80
1.00
1.83
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.83
1.47
1.40
0.73
2.27
vs Stronger (25)
0.96
1.92
1.31
1.54
0.58
2.33
vs Similar (5)
1.80
1.40
2.50
0.50
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.4%
@ 1.70-6.5%
Under 2.5
51.6%
@ 2.07+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.4%
No
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0 ✓
10.3%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
4.9%
Kelty Hearts goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
6.5%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.2%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.4%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.7%
4.9%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kelty Hearts goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Kelty Hearts is 0.14 points better than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Kelty Hearts is 0.25 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Kelty Hearts is 0.14 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kelty Hearts
For 4.2 · Against 6.7 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 12.5 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 4.8 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 10.3 · Total 19.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
10.8
12.0
3.5
3.6
3.5
21.8
21.5
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
11.4
11.4
11.3
3.6
3.6
3.6
22.2
21.8
22.7
vs Weaker (13)
11.5
9.0
13.6
3.4
3.3
3.4
20.4
20.7
20.1
% over line
68%
60%
76%
40%
40%
40%
52%
56%
48%
% under line
32%
40%
24%
60%
60%
60%
48%
44%
52%
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.6
11.0
3.9
4.0
3.8
20.0
19.8
20.3
vs Stronger (34)
10.1
9.5
10.6
4.0
3.9
4.1
20.0
19.6
20.5
vs Similar (16)
10.8
9.8
11.8
3.7
4.0
3.4
20.1
20.1
20.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
56%
72%
54%
48%
60%
36%
32%
40%
% under line
36%
44%
28%
46%
52%
40%
64%
68%
60%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kelty Hearts
11.4
Hamilton
10.5
Falkirk
10.4
Stirling
10.3
Montrose
10.2
Queen of Sth
10.0
Cove Rangers
9.9
Edinburgh City
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.8
Alloa
9.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Annan Athletic
4.6
Montrose
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Stirling
3.9
Queen of Sth
3.7
Hamilton
3.6
Kelty Hearts
3.5
Edinburgh City
3.5
Alloa
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Falkirk
21.8
Kelty Hearts
21.8
Montrose
21.5
Annan Athletic
20.9
Queen of Sth
20.5
Hamilton
20.5
Stirling
20.0
Edinburgh City
19.8
Alloa
19.0
Cove Rangers
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.9%
Under 9.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.9%
Under 3.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
42.2%
Under 21.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.42
1.00
0.30
1.00
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.64
0.60
0.40
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.90
0.60
0.67
0.40
1.13
vs Stronger (25)
0.40
0.92
0.54
0.69
0.25
1.17
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
0.73
0.67
1.00
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.89
0.50
0.70
1.00
1.11
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.91
1.20
0.60
1.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.87
0.73
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (25)
0.56
1.00
0.77
0.85
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.60
1.50
0.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Falkirk
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Annan Athletic
Edinburgh City