PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

KF Lepenci vs Tefik Canga Prediction & Stats

Date: 03/10/2026
Time: 14:30
KF Lepenci
KF Lepenci
Vs
42%
29%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tefik Canga
Tefik Canga
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours a home win, with a 42% chance, a draw 29%, and an away win 29%. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.8%. KF Lepenci, playing at home against a similarly-ranked side, have not scored or conceded in their last five matches, while Tefik Canga, on the road, average 1.25 goals scored and 2.0 conceded versus similar opponents. The suggested picks include an almost certain Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.2%), Under 4.5 (88.3%) and a Home +2 handicap (87.9%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every selection is listed with its exact probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

KF Lepenci win
42.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga win
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KF LepenciKF Lepenci

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L22D00DH·2 K16/08A·RAM22/08H·MIT30/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.330.001.002.002.00
vs Stronger (2)1.002.000.002.002.002.00
vs Similar (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tefik Canga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tefik CangaTefik Canga

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D21W10W12L13L10W36L13L01L22DA·PRI12/04H·TRE17/04A·RAM25/04H·VËL02/05A·FC 09/05H·KIK16/05A·SUH23/05H·VËL15/08A·2 K22/08H·RAM29/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.701.251.441.072.00
vs Stronger (4)1.002.251.332.670.001.00
vs Similar (25)1.241.561.231.151.252.00
vs Weaker (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (KF Lepenci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.2%
Under 2.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
9.7%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
7.8%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
5.1%
KF Lepenci goals ↓
Tefik Canga goals →
01234
09.0%7.6%5.0%1.9%0.5%
19.7%14%7.1%2.7%0.8%
27.8%8.9%5.1%1.9%0.6%
33.7%4.2%2.4%0.9%0.3%
41.3%1.5%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KF Lepenci goals (down), columns = Tefik Canga goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
KF Lepenci is 0.21 points better than Tefik Canga in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.18).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
KF Lepenci is 0.01 goals worse than Tefik Canga in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.41).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KF Lepenci is 0.18 goals better than Tefik Canga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.59).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
KF Lepenci or Draw
71.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
29%
29%
covers KF Lepenci + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci or Tefik Canga
71.2%
Avg Implied -
42%
29%
29%
covers KF Lepenci + Tefik Canga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tefik Canga
57.8%
Avg Implied -
42%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Tefik Canga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
KF Lepenci over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 2.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 0.5
Over
68.1%
Under
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 1.5
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to KF Lepenci, so a minus line means KF Lepenci give that many goals of a start and Tefik Canga receive them. At -1, KF Lepenci must win by two or more to land; a one-goal KF Lepenci win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (KF Lepenci)
KF Lepenci -2
7.9%
Draw -2
12.9%
Tefik Canga +2
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (KF Lepenci)
KF Lepenci -1
20.8%
Draw -1
21.3%
Tefik Canga +1
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (KF Lepenci)
KF Lepenci +1
71.0%
Draw +1
16.9%
Tefik Canga -1
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (KF Lepenci)
KF Lepenci +2
87.9%
Draw +2
8.4%
Tefik Canga -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KF LepenciKF Lepenci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L01L00DH·2 K16/08A·RAM22/08H·MIT30/08
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.000.670.000.500.001.00
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tefik Canga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tefik CangaTefik Canga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W00D01L00D10W00D02L01L01LA·PRI12/04H·TRE17/04A·RAM25/04H·VËL02/05A·FC 09/05H·KIK16/05A·SUH23/05H·VËL15/08A·2 K22/08H·RAM29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.600.270.600.400.60
vs Stronger (4)0.001.250.001.330.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.380.420.270.360.460.46
vs Weaker (2)0.501.501.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (KF Lepenci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KF Lepenci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KF LepenciKF Lepenci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W00DH·2 K16/08A·RAM22/08H·MIT30/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.670.000.502.001.00
vs Stronger (2)1.001.000.001.002.001.00
vs Similar (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tefik Canga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tefik CangaTefik Canga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L11D10W11D13L00D36L11D00D21WA·PRI12/04H·TRE17/04A·RAM25/04H·VËL02/05A·FC 09/05H·KIK16/05A·SUH23/05H·VËL15/08A·2 K22/08H·RAM29/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.971.000.601.001.33
vs Stronger (4)1.001.001.331.330.000.00
vs Similar (24)1.041.000.910.451.151.46
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (KF Lepenci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KF Lepenci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tefik Canga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.5%-------
Under 6.598.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals97.1%-------
Under 5.595.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.4%-------
Away under 2.5 goals89.2%-------
Under 4.588.3%-------
Home +2 handicap87.9%-------
Home under 2.5 goals82.8%-------
Away +2 handicap79.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals75.8%-------
Under 3.574.4%-------
Over 1.573.8%-------
Home or Away71.2%-------
Home or Draw71.0%-------
Home +1 handicap71.0%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
KL wins
0
Draws
0
TC wins

Head-to-head

KF Lepenci vs Tefik Canga · H/A from KL
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

KF LepenciKF Lepenci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HKL Vs Mitrovica0-0
22/08/26ARamiz Sadiku Vs KL2-2
16/08/26HKL Vs 2 Korriku0-2

Tefik CangaTefik Canga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HTC Vs Ramiz Sadiku2-2
22/08/26A2 Korriku Vs TC1-0
15/08/26HTC Vs Vëllaznimi1-3
23/05/26ASuhareka Vs TC6-3
16/05/26HTC Vs Kika1-0
09/05/26AFC Besa Peja Vs TC3-1
02/05/26HTC Vs Vëllaznimi1-2
25/04/26ARamiz Sadiku Vs TC0-1
17/04/26HTC Vs Trepça Mitrovicë2-1
12/04/26APrizreni Vs TC2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

KF Lepenci
KF Lepenci
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Recent: 0 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDD0.67
HomeLD0.50
AwayD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals2.001.004.00
Over 1.5 %67%50%100%
Over 2.5 %33%0%100%
Over 3.5 %33%0%100%
Scored0.670.002.00
Conceded1.331.002.00
BTTS33%0%100%
Clean Sheet33%50%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Tefik Canga
Tefik Canga
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLD1.11
HomeWLWLD1.37
AwayDWLLL0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%42%22%
AVG goals3.002.843.17
Over 1.5 %78%74%83%
Over 2.5 %57%58%56%
Over 3.5 %32%32%33%
Scored1.381.471.28
Conceded1.621.371.89
BTTS62%63%61%
Clean Sheet14%16%11%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VëllaznimiVëllaznimi39
100%
3.0
61+5
2.3
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.3
-
2Dinamo FerizajDinamo Ferizaj37
67%
2.3
81+7
3.0
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.3
-
3TrepçaTrepça'8937
67%
2.3
30+3
1.0
33%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.0
-
4Liria PrizrenLiria Prizren37
67%
2.3
42+2
2.0
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.7
-
5SuharekaSuhareka36
67%
2.0
73+4
3.3
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
62 Korriku2 Korriku36
67%
2.0
42+2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.7
-
7Rilindja 1974Rilindja 197434
33%
1.3
34-1
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
8VjosaVjosa33
33%
1.0
54+1
3.0
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.3
-
9Ramiz SadikuRamiz Sadiku33
0%
1.0
44+0
2.7
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
10KikaKika33
0%
1.0
11+0
0.7
33%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.30.3
-
11FC Besa PejaFC Besa Peja33
33%
1.0
23-1
1.7
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.0
-
12Trepça MitrovicëTrepça Mitrovicë33
33%
1.0
48-4
4.0
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.7
-
13Prishtina e RePrishtina e Re33
33%
1.0
26-4
2.7
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.0
-
14IstoguIstogu33
33%
1.0
27-5
3.0
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.3
-
15KF LepenciKF Lepenci32
0%
0.7
24-2
2.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
16MitrovicaMitrovica32
0%
0.7
13-2
1.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.0
-
17FerizajFerizaj31
0%
0.3
24-2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
18Tefik CangaTefik Canga31
0%
0.3
36-3
3.0
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →

← all matches