The model favours a home win, with a 45% chance for KF Lepenci, 28% for a draw and 27% for Trepça Mitrovicë. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% probability. KF Lepenci, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, has an average of 0.0 goals scored and conceded in this context, while Trepça Mitrovicë, on the road, averages 1.45 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similar teams. Recent form hints that Lepenci are coming off a draw, whereas Trepça have endured two straight defeats. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (94.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.7%), Home +2 handicap (89.1%) and Under 4.5 (87.2%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
KF Lepenci win
45.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë win
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KF Lepenci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.10
1.13
2.07
1.13
2.13
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.60
1.50
3.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.96
1.17
1.92
1.45
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (KF Lepenci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.2%
Under 1.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.2%
Under 2.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.3%
Under 3.5
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.8%
No
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.3%
2-0
8.3%
1-2
6.8%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
5.2%
KF Lepenci goals ↓
Trepça Mitrovicë goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
6.8%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.6%
13%
6.8%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.2%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.2%
4.7%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KF Lepenci goals (down), columns = Trepça Mitrovicë goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
KF Lepenci is 0.39 points better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
KF Lepenci is 0.04 goals worse than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KF Lepenci is 0.42 goals better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
KF Lepenci or Draw
73.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
27%
covers KF Lepenci + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci or Trepça Mitrovicë
72.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
27%
covers KF Lepenci + Trepça Mitrovicë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Trepça Mitrovicë
54.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
27%
covers Draw + Trepça Mitrovicë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
KF Lepenci over/under 0.5
Over
78.2%
Under
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 1.5
Over
44.9%
Under
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 2.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to KF Lepenci, so a minus line means KF Lepenci give that many goals of a start and Trepça Mitrovicë receive them. At -1, KF Lepenci must win by two or more to land; a one-goal KF Lepenci win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (KF Lepenci)
KF Lepenci -2
9.4%
Draw -2
14.1%
Trepça Mitrovicë +2
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (KF Lepenci)
KF Lepenci -1
23.4%
Draw -1
21.9%
Trepça Mitrovicë +1
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (KF Lepenci)
KF Lepenci +1
73.3%
Draw +1
15.8%
Trepça Mitrovicë -1
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (KF Lepenci)
KF Lepenci +2
89.1%
Draw +2
7.6%
Trepça Mitrovicë -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KF Lepenci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.64
0.71
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
-
-
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.71
0.69
0.77
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (KF Lepenci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
64.4%
Under 0.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.9%
Under 1.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.9%
Under 2.5
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KF Lepenci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KF Lepenci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.17
0.79
0.93
0.69
1.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
-
-
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.08
0.85
0.92
1.00
1.27
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (KF Lepenci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.1%
Under 0.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.7%
Under 1.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.6%
Under 2.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KF Lepenci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KF Lepenci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →