The model favours a home win, with a 44% chance, followed by a 27% draw and a 29% away victory. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderate scoring affair, while the most likely total is two goals, a 25% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability. Kifisia, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, whereas OFI, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.62 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 97.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 93.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 93.0%, Over 23.5 fouls at 87.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 83.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 81.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.2%, and Over 25.5 fouls at 77.4%. All figures are presented as percentages.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 2-2 draw, a shock that saw the pre-match favourite, a home win, miss its mark. Kifisia had been coming off a draw, while OFI had just suffered a defeat, yet neither side could secure victory. The model had picked a home win with a 44% probability, but the result was a draw. All of the model’s other selections hit: Over 19.5 fouls (97.5%), Over 21.5 fouls (93.9%), Over 2.5 cards (93.0%), Over 23.5 fouls (87.3%), Over 3.5 cards (83.3%), Under 11.5 corners (81.2%), Over 1.5 (78.2%), and Over 25.5 fouls (77.4%). The final score of 2-2 matched the most likely 2-goal outcome, but the predicted winner was wrong.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kifisia winâś— Miss
44.0%
Avg Implied 41.2% · @ 2.22
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
27.2%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.12
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
OFI winâś— Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.10
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Kifisia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.23
1.08
1.18
1.41
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.29
2.00
2.67
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.17
0.40
0.80
1.57
1.43
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
0.73
1.60
0.40
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (OFI) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFI
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.33
1.69
1.06
0.79
1.64
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.88
0.33
1.67
0.40
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.32
1.82
1.09
1.00
1.62
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kifisia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.3%
@ 1.92+5.2%
Under 2.5
46.7%
@ 1.78-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.4%
No
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.3%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.3%
0-0
7.2%
0-1
6.3%
2-2 âś“
5.7%
Kifisia goals ↓
OFI goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
6.3%
4.6%
1.9%
0.6%
1
8.3%
13%
7.3%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.2%
5.7%
2.4%
0.7%
3
3.9%
4.8%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.5%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kifisia goals (down), columns = OFI goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.29
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.12
PAOK
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.71
Levadiakos
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis
1.44
Atromitos
1.29
OFI Crete
1.22
OFI
1.22
Kifisia
1.18
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.79
Panserraikos
0.76
Kifisia is 0.03 points worse than OFI in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levadiakos
2.00
PAOK
1.88
AEK Athens FC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.68
Panathinaikos
1.56
Atromitos
1.39
OFI Crete
1.34
OFI
1.34
Kifisia
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis
1.08
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.92
Panserraikos
0.66
Kifisia is 0.16 goals worse than OFI in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.50
AEK Athens FC
0.62
PAOK
0.76
Panathinaikos
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis
1.06
Atromitos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.39
Kifisia
1.42
Panetolikos
1.42
Levadiakos
1.50
Larisa
1.61
Volos NFC
1.67
OFI Crete
1.72
OFI
1.72
Panserraikos
2.03
Kifisia is 0.30 goals better than OFI in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olympiakos Piraeus
60%
PAOK
60%
AEK Athens FC
57%
Levadiakos
56%
Atromitos
53%
Panathinaikos
53%
Aris Thessalonikis
51%
Kifisia
48%
Volos NFC
46%
Larisa
46%
Panetolikos
46%
OFI
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Panserraikos
37%
Kifisia is 2.4 percentage points better than OFI in terms of average possession (48% vs 45%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kifisia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.46
0.46
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.20
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.45
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (OFI) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFI
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.12
0.00
1.00
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.47
1.00
0.45
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kifisia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kifisia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kifisia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kifisia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFI over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFI over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFI over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kifisia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.77
0.62
0.71
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.43
1.00
1.67
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.83
0.40
0.60
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.27
1.00
0.00
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (OFI) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFI
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.69
0.56
0.36
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.75
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.84
0.82
0.64
0.38
1.12
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kifisia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kifisia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kifisia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kifisia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFI over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFI over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFI over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OFI (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
VN (25)
€10m
KIF (27)
€10m
PAN (27)
€6m
LAR (23)
€5m
Kifisia's squad is €7m less valuable than OFI's (€10m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
KIF (10)
€4m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
Kifisia's attack is €2m less valuable than OFI's (€4m vs €6m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OFI (5)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
KIF (6)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
PAN (3)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
Kifisia's midfield is €2m less valuable than OFI's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OFI (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
KIF (11)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
LAR (13)
€2m
Kifisia's defence is €4m less valuable than OFI's (€4m vs €8m).
Greece: Super League 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AEK Athens FC
Olympiakos Piraeus
PAOK
Panathinaikos
Levadiakos
Aris Thessalonikis
Atromitos
Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
Volos NFC
Larisa
Panserraikos