Kika’s defensive record at home - conceding just one goal per match - sets the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair. The model predicts a 52 % chance of a home win, 30 % for a draw and 18 % for an away victory, making a Kika win the clear favourite. With an expected total of 2.1 goals, the most likely scoreline is 1-0, a 15.8 % probability. Kika averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Rilindja 1974 struggles away, scoring only 0.67 and conceding 1.67 goals on average.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.4 %), Under 5.5 (98.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (96.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9 %), Home +2 handicap (94.6 %) and Under 4.5 (93.9 %). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kika win
48.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 win
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kika
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.17
0.87
0.93
0.33
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.57
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.73
1.09
1.10
0.80
0.42
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilindja 1974) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rilindja 1974
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.67
1.14
1.21
0.69
2.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
3.00
1.33
2.00
0.50
3.75
vs Similar (22)
0.95
1.23
1.09
1.00
0.82
1.45
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.3%
Under 1.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.0%
Under 2.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.1%
Under 3.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.9%
No
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.0%
1-1
13.8%
0-0
13.5%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
8.3%
1-2
4.9%
3-0
4.7%
Kika goals ↓
Rilindja 1974 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
8.3%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
4.9%
1.3%
0.2%
2
11%
8.3%
3.2%
0.8%
0.2%
3
4.7%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kika goals (down), columns = Rilindja 1974 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Kika is 0.03 points better than Rilindja 1974 in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Kika is 0.26 goals worse than Rilindja 1974 in terms of goals scored per game (0.74 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Kika is 0.53 goals better than Rilindja 1974 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kika or Draw
79.3%
Avg Implied -
48%
31%
21%
covers Kika + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kika or Rilindja 1974
69.0%
Avg Implied -
48%
31%
21%
covers Kika + Rilindja 1974
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rilindja 1974
51.7%
Avg Implied -
48%
31%
21%
covers Draw + Rilindja 1974
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kika over/under 0.5
Over
73.3%
Under
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 1.5
Over
38.1%
Under
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 2.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 0.5
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 1.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 2.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kika, so a minus line means Kika give that many goals of a start and Rilindja 1974 receive them. At -1, Kika must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kika win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kika)
Kika -2
8.6%
Draw -2
14.9%
Rilindja 1974 +2
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kika)
Kika -1
23.5%
Draw -1
24.8%
Rilindja 1974 +1
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kika)
Kika +1
79.3%
Draw +1
14.1%
Rilindja 1974 -1
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kika)
Kika +2
93.4%
Draw +2
5.1%
Rilindja 1974 -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kika
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.57
0.20
0.53
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.26
0.57
0.20
0.40
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilindja 1974) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rilindja 1974
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.34
0.83
0.47
0.67
0.21
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.43
0.33
0.33
0.50
2.25
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.50
0.55
0.64
0.11
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
48% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.7%
Under 0.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
27.1%
Under 1.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.5%
Under 2.5
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kika over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.8%
Under
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kika
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.47
0.60
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.61
0.60
0.70
0.31
0.54
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilindja 1974) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rilindja 1974
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
0.97
0.67
0.80
0.36
1.14
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.57
1.00
1.67
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.80
0.55
0.55
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
41% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.3%
Under 0.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.3%
Under 1.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.5%
Under 2.5
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kika over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.7%
Under
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →