Celtic is expected to emerge victorious in this Scotland: Premiership match against Kilmarnock. The recent form of both teams sets the stage for an intriguing encounter, with Celtic on a 5-game winning run and Kilmarnock coming off a defeat. The overall shape of the match suggests a closely contested game with a relatively high number of goals.
The probability of a Celtic win stands at 55%, while Kilmarnock has a 21% chance of securing a home victory, and a 24% chance of the match ending in a draw. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, indicating a potentially high-scoring game.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.2%. Kilmarnock has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding 1.5, particularly against stronger opponents. Celtic, on the other hand, has excelled at away games, scoring 1.79 goals and conceding 1.5, even against weaker opponents.
The model suggests Over 1.5 as its selection, with an 82.1% probability. This selection is likely driven by the expected high-scoring nature of the match. The home win percentage stands at 21%, the draw percentage at 24%, and the away win percentage at 55%.
Results analysis
The win extends Kilmarnock's run of consecutive losses to 3 games after a 1-5 defeat at home to Celtic. The final scoreline was a convincing away win for the visitors, matching the model's selection. The model had correctly identified Celtic as the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 56%. The model's call was correct, as Celtic secured a 5-1 victory. The model's selection of Celtic to win was the correct favourite. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 85%, while the model's selection of the most likely total goals of 3 missed, with a probability of 22%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kilmarnock winâś— Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied 13.0% · @ 7.20
Edge
+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
7.70
10Bet
7.60
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Drawâś— Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 5.09
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.40
Dafabet
5.40
Pinnacle
5.36
Superbet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
Celtic winâś“ Hit
55.9%
Avg Implied 68.6% · @ 1.37
Edge
-12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Dafabet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.38
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.60
1.64
1.29
1.12
1.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.57
1.00
2.25
0.67
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.36
2.00
1.00
1.23
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.23
2.19
1.25
1.57
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
1.67
1.67
2.67
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (24)
2.04
1.12
2.31
0.92
1.73
1.36
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.0%
@ 1.12+1.2%
Under 1.5
15.0%
@ 5.83-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
10Bet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Under
Pinnacle
6.24
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Superbet
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.0%
@ 1.43-1.7%
Under 2.5
36.0%
@ 2.73+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.88
Unibet
2.80
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.77
BetVictor
2.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.9%
@ 2.10-3.2%
Under 3.5
58.1%
@ 1.72+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
SBO
2.14
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.12
888Sport
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.7%
@ 1.63+5.8%
No
37.3%
@ 2.16-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
888Sport
1.65
No
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.18
Unibet
2.16
BetVictor
2.15
Betfair
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%@ 9.43+5.5%
1-2
9.7%@ 7.80+3.9%
0-2
7.9%@ 7.83+2.2%
0-1
6.7%@ 8.96+1.7%
1-3
6.7%@ 9.64+2.0%
2-2
6.0%@ 14.34+2.8%
2-1
5.8%@ 19.20+3.4%
0-3
5.5%@ 9.57+0.8%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
6.7%
7.9%
5.5%
2.8%
1
3.6%
10%
9.7%
6.7%
3.5%
2
2.8%
5.8%
6.0%
4.1%
2.1%
3
1.1%
2.4%
2.4%
1.7%
0.9%
4
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Celtic goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Kilmarnock is 1.11 points worse than Celtic in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 2.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Kilmarnock is 0.61 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Kilmarnock is 0.71 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Kilmarnock is 23.1 percentage points worse than Celtic in terms of average possession (42% vs 66%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.86
0.29
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.71
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.50
1.00
0.22
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.44
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (24)
1.08
0.42
1.31
0.31
0.82
0.55
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.07
0.79
1.00
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.86
0.25
1.75
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.86
1.00
0.78
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
0.94
0.81
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.83
0.67
1.67
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
0.96
0.71
1.00
0.62
0.91
0.82
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.0%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
10Bet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
+1.2%
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.7%
1.24
Superbet
1.24
-
-
-
-
+7.0%
âś— Miss
Under 5.5 cards
75.6%
1.33
Unibet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.8%
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.5%
1.46
Pinnacle
1.52
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
+7.2%
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie25%
M. Schjønning-Larsen25%
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill50%
B. Rice50%
Tyreece John-Jules25%
J. Brandon25%
Greg Kiltie25%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
G. Stanger0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery50%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Joe Hugill0%
B. Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
Celtic
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Nygren67%
C. Durán50%
Kasper Høgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
C. McGregor20%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
C. Carter-Vickers17%
Colby Donovan17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
H. Hassan0%
B. Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
C. Durán0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Nygren50%
Kieran Tierney40%
C. Durán33%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Durán67%
Kasper Høgh50%
H. Hassan33%
B. Nygren33%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Kilmarnock's squad is €110m less valuable than Celtic's (€7m vs €116m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Kilmarnock's attack is €53m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €56m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €18m less valuable than Celtic's (€2m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Kilmarnock's defence is €38m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €41m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Falkirk