Kilmarnock vs Dundee Result & Analysis

Kilmarnock are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 55% chance to a home win, 27% to a draw and 19% to a Dundee victory. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.6% probability. Kilmarnock, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Dundee, on the road to a comparable side, average 0.89 scored and 1.33 conceded. The match preview is coloured by Kilmarnock’s recent five-game run of LWLLD and a 0-4 loss to Dundee Utd, while Dundee come off a 1-2 defeat to Hibernian. The model’s suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 84.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 73.8%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 71.6%. The Under 5.5 cards and Under 3.5 picks are less likely, at 75.8% and 74.3% respectively.

Kilmarnock’s win over Dundee extended their recent run, turning a defeat into a decisive 3-1 triumph. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win, with a 55% probability, and the call proved correct. The predicted 2-goal total fell short of the 3-goal reality, but the model’s selections largely delivered. Over 19.5 fouls hit at 84.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.4% and Over 2.5 cards at 78.6% all came in. Over 21.5 fouls also succeeded at 71.6%. The Under 5.5 cards pick at 75.8% missed, as did the Under 3.5 at 74.3% and the Over 1.5 at 73.8%. The model’s overall performance was solid, with most probabilities realised.