PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

King’s Lynn vs Dag and Red Result & Analysis

Date: 11/09/2021
Time: 17:20
Final 1-2
KL
King’s Lynn
Vs
17%
22%
61%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
DA
Dag and Red
England: National League
Referee: A Herczeg
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

King’s Lynn win✗ Miss
16.7%
Avg Implied 22.2% · @ 4.18
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.89
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dag and Red win✓ Hit
61.2%
Avg Implied 53.9% · @ 1.72
Edge
+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KL
King’s Lynn

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-515L14L13L35L11D44D01L21W02L33DA·BOR03/05A·CHE11/05A·YEO15/05A·WRE22/05H·SOL25/05H·ALD29/05H·SOU21/08A·YEO28/08H·CHE30/08A·EAS04/09
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.301.271.671.132.93
vs Stronger (13)1.002.771.002.171.003.29
vs Similar (11)1.271.641.001.141.752.50
vs Weaker (6)1.502.503.002.000.752.75
Clean sheet %7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dag and Red) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DA
Dag and Red

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W50W11D30W12L11D31W42W20W22DH·WOK03/05A·WEA08/05A·STO11/05H·HAL15/05A·CHE22/05H·WRE29/05A·STO21/08H·BRO28/08A·BAR30/08H·WEA04/09
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.071.751.191.640.93
vs Stronger (4)1.751.251.001.002.001.33
vs Similar (11)1.641.182.001.171.201.20
vs Weaker (15)1.730.931.671.221.830.50
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (King’s Lynn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.0%
@ 1.66+4.5%
Under 2.5
39.0%
@ 2.15-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2 ✓
9.9%
0-2
9.6%
0-1
8.1%
1-3
7.0%
0-3
6.8%
0-0
5.2%
2-2
5.1%
King’s Lynn goals ↓
Dag and Red goals →
01234
05.2%8.1%9.6%6.8%3.6%
13.5%10%9.9%7.0%3.7%
22.3%4.8%5.1%3.6%1.9%
30.8%1.7%1.8%1.2%0.7%
40.2%0.4%0.5%0.3%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = King’s Lynn goals (down), columns = Dag and Red goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
King’s Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
King’s Lynn is 0.89 points worse than Dag and Red in terms of average points per game (0.77 vs 1.66).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
King’s Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
King’s Lynn is 0.75 goals worse than Dag and Red in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.82).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
King’s Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
King’s Lynn is 0.59 goals worse than Dag and Red in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KL
King’s Lynn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D12L12L13L10W12L01L01L01L02LA·BOR03/05A·CHE11/05A·YEO15/05A·WRE22/05H·SOL25/05H·ALD29/05H·SOU21/08A·YEO28/08H·CHE30/08A·EAS04/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.230.601.000.471.47
vs Stronger (13)0.541.380.501.330.571.43
vs Similar (11)0.551.090.710.710.251.75
vs Weaker (6)0.501.170.501.000.501.25
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dag and Red) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DA
Dag and Red

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W40W11D20W11D00D11D11D20W11DH·WOK03/05A·WEA08/05A·STO11/05H·HAL15/05A·CHE22/05H·WRE29/05A·STO21/08H·BRO28/08A·BAR30/08H·WEA04/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.600.880.560.930.64
vs Stronger (4)0.500.750.000.000.671.00
vs Similar (11)0.820.820.830.670.801.00
vs Weaker (15)1.070.401.000.561.170.17
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (King’s Lynn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
King’s Lynn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
King’s Lynn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
King’s Lynn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dag and Red over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dag and Red over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dag and Red over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KL
King’s Lynn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L02L01L22D01L32W00D20W01L31WA·BOR03/05A·CHE11/05A·YEO15/05A·WRE22/05H·SOL25/05H·ALD29/05H·SOU21/08A·YEO28/08H·CHE30/08A·EAS04/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.070.670.670.671.47
vs Stronger (13)0.461.380.500.830.431.86
vs Similar (11)0.730.550.290.431.500.75
vs Weaker (6)1.001.332.501.000.251.50
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dag and Red) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DA
Dag and Red

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W00D10W01L11D20W31W00D11DH·WOK03/05A·WEA08/05A·STO11/05H·HAL15/05A·CHE22/05H·WRE29/05A·STO21/08H·BRO28/08A·BAR30/08H·WEA04/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.470.880.620.710.29
vs Stronger (4)1.250.501.001.001.330.33
vs Similar (11)0.820.361.170.500.400.20
vs Weaker (15)0.670.530.670.670.670.33
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (King’s Lynn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
King’s Lynn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
King’s Lynn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
King’s Lynn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dag and Red over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dag and Red over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dag and Red over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards83.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.583.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards70.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
KL wins
0
Draws
2
DAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

King’s Lynn vs Dag and Red · H/A from KL
DateH/AGameScore
24/04/21HKL Vs Dag and Red0-3
23/01/21ADag and Red Vs KL3-2

KL
King’s Lynn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/21AEastleigh Vs KL3-3
30/08/21HKL Vs Chesterfield0-2
28/08/21AYeovil Vs KL1-2
21/08/21HKL Vs Southend0-1
29/05/21HKL Vs Aldershot4-4
25/05/21HKL Vs Solihull1-1
22/05/21AWrexham Vs KL5-3
15/05/21AYeovil Vs KL3-1
11/05/21AChesterfield Vs KL4-1
03/05/21ABoreham Wood Vs KL5-1

DA
Dag and Red

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/21HDAR Vs Wealdstone2-2
30/08/21ABarnet Vs DAR0-2
28/08/21HDAR Vs Bromley4-2
21/08/21AStockport Vs DAR1-3
29/05/21HDAR Vs Wrexham1-1
22/05/21AChesterfield Vs DAR2-1
15/05/21HDAR Vs Halifax3-0
11/05/21AStockport Vs DAR1-1
08/05/21AWealdstone Vs DAR0-5
03/05/21HDAR Vs Woking3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

KL
King’s Lynn
England: National League
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD0.81
HomeDDDLL0.96
AwayLLLWD0.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %19%21%17%
AVG goals3.453.003.91
Over 1.5 %85%79%91%
Over 2.5 %64%54%74%
Over 3.5 %47%38%57%
Scored1.211.251.17
Conceded2.231.752.74
BTTS55%50%61%
Clean Sheet13%17%9%
Corners---
Cards3.263.672.83
DA
Dag and Red
England: National League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWD1.55
HomeWWDWD1.61
AwayWDLWW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %45%43%46%
AVG goals2.512.572.46
Over 1.5 %70%70%71%
Over 2.5 %47%48%46%
Over 3.5 %26%30%21%
Scored1.381.431.33
Conceded1.131.131.12
BTTS47%52%42%
Clean Sheet34%30%38%
Corners---
Cards3.453.353.54

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StockportStockport4494
68%
2.1
8738+49
2.8
75%
61%
25%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
10
3342.00.9
-
2WrexhamWrexham4488
59%
2.0
9146+45
3.1
80%
52%
34%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
77
1523392.11.0
-
3SolihullSolihull4487
57%
2.0
8345+38
2.9
77%
55%
34%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4HalifaxHalifax4484
57%
1.9
6235+27
2.2
66%
34%
20%
-
0%
3.3
45%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
5Notts CountyNotts County4482
55%
1.9
8152+29
3.0
82%
52%
34%
-
0%
4.3
61%
-
0%
6
2221.81.2
-
6GrimsbyGrimsby4477
52%
1.8
6846+22
2.6
64%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.0
45%
-
0%
4
1021.51.0
-
7ChesterfieldChesterfield4474
45%
1.7
6951+18
2.7
75%
45%
39%
-
0%
3.7
45%
-
0%
6
3121.61.2
-
8
DA
Dag and Red		4473
50%
1.7
8053+27
3.0
80%
61%
32%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
9Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4467
41%
1.5
4940+9
2.0
61%
30%
16%
-
0%
3.1
32%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
10BromleyBromley4467
41%
1.5
6153+8
2.6
75%
43%
27%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
4
1121.41.2
-
11
T
Torquay		4466
41%
1.5
6654+12
2.7
80%
55%
30%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12YeovilYeovil4459
34%
1.3
4346-3
2.0
70%
39%
7%
-
0%
4.3
66%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
13SouthendSouthend4458
36%
1.3
4561-16
2.4
68%
41%
23%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
14AltrinchamAltrincham4455
34%
1.2
6269-7
3.0
80%
52%
39%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
15WokingWoking4453
36%
1.2
5961-2
2.7
73%
48%
32%
-
0%
4.3
57%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4453
32%
1.2
5165-14
2.6
70%
52%
30%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
17
M
Maidenhead		4451
30%
1.2
4867-19
2.6
73%
45%
32%
-
0%
3.2
32%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
18BarnetBarnet4450
30%
1.1
5989-30
3.4
84%
64%
41%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
4
0131.32.0
-
19EastleighEastleigh4446
27%
1.0
5274-22
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
-
20AldershotAldershot4443
25%
1.0
4673-27
2.7
77%
52%
32%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
21
KL
King’s Lynn		4434
18%
0.8
4779-32
2.9
70%
52%
32%
-
0%
3.4
45%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
22
W
Weymouth		4428
14%
0.6
4088-48
2.9
80%
50%
32%
-
0%
2.7
41%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
23
DA
Dover Athletic		4413
5%
0.3
37101-64
3.1
73%
59%
39%
-
0%
3.2
48%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

← all matches