Klaipėdos FM’s recent 0-2 loss to Dainava suggests the visitors are in better shape, and the model’s odds back an away win at 40%, with a 37% chance of a home victory and a 23% draw. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 9.3% probability. Klaipėdos FM, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded, while Dainava, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.94 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (96.4%), Under 6.5 (91.7%), Over 1.5 (89.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (84.9%), Home over 0.5 goals (83.9% miss), and Under 5.5 (82.8%). These figures paint a picture of a contest where Dainava’s away form and Klaipėdos FM’s defensive frailties combine to produce a likely away triumph.
Results analysis
The win for Dainava extends their unbeaten run, while Klaipėdos FM return to the field after a defeat. The final score was 0-2, confirming the model’s pick of an away win, which was correct. The model had assigned a 40% probability to the away triumph. Among the suggested selections, Under 7.5, Under 6.5, Over 1.5, Home under 3.5 goals, Away under 3.5 goals, Away over 0.5 goals, and Under 5.5 all hit, with probabilities of 96.4%, 91.7%, 89.3%, 88.8%, 87.6%, 84.9%, and 82.8% respectively. The only miss was Home over 0.5 goals, which had an 83.9% chance. The model’s predictions largely matched the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Klaipėdos FM win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dainava win✓ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Klaipėdos FM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.14
1.71
1.75
2.00
5.00
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.67
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
4.25
2.50
1.50
3.50
7.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
29% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.17
0.64
2.43
1.06
1.94
vs Stronger (30)
0.87
2.17
0.64
2.43
1.06
1.94
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Klaipėdos FM) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.3%
Under 1.5
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
71.7%
Under 2.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.9%
Under 3.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
72.0%
No
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.3%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
7.2%
1-3
5.0%
3-1
4.7%
2-3
4.6%
3-2
4.4%
Klaipėdos FM goals ↓
Dainava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
3.8%
4.4%
2.7%
1.3%
1
3.6%
9.3%
7.9%
5.0%
2.4%
2
4.1%
7.7%
7.2%
4.6%
2.2%
3
2.5%
4.7%
4.4%
2.8%
1.3%
4
1.1%
2.1%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Klaipėdos FM goals (down), columns = Dainava goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panevėžys
3.00
Hegelmann Litauen
2.40
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Džiugas Telšiai
2.25
Babrungas
2.25
Jonava
2.25
Šiauliai
2.00
Alternatyvus FK
2.00
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Tauras
2.00
Minija
2.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Vilnius FA
1.50
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Utenis Utena
1.50
Klaipėdos FM
1.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.50
Banga
1.50
VGTU Vilkai
1.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Atmosfera
1.50
Ekranas
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Nevėžis
1.50
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.01
OG Kaišiadorys
1.01
FK Sumskas
1.01
FK Ketera
1.01
Svyturys
1.01
Radviliškis
1.01
Vilniaus Vytis
1.01
FK Inter Nemencine
1.01
Nadruvis
1.01
Granitas
1.01
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.01
Kaunas City FA
1.01
Sendvaris
0.00
Viltis Vilnius
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
0.00
FK Trakai
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Geležinis Vilkas
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
BFA
0.00
Klaipėdos FM is 1.50 points better than Dainava in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ekranas
9.00
Tauras
6.33
Panevėžys
4.60
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
4.00
Atmosfera
4.00
Cementininkas Akmenė
3.00
VGTU Vilkai
3.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
3.00
Babrungas
3.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.50
Sveikata
2.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.40
Alternatyvus FK
2.33
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Jonava
2.25
Utenis Utena
2.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Minija
2.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.75
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.68
OG Kaišiadorys
1.68
FK Sumskas
1.68
FK Ketera
1.68
Svyturys
1.68
Radviliškis
1.68
Vilniaus Vytis
1.68
FK Inter Nemencine
1.68
Nadruvis
1.68
Granitas
1.68
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.68
Kaunas City FA
1.68
Kauno Žalgiris
1.67
Be1 NFA
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Šiauliai
1.33
Viltis Vilnius
1.00
Širvėna Biržai
1.00
Banga
1.00
FK Trakai
1.00
Venta
1.00
Geležinis Vilkas
1.00
BFA
1.00
Vilnius FA
0.50
Garliava
0.50
Sendvaris
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Klaipėdos FM is 2.50 goals better than Dainava in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.50
Banga
0.50
Babrungas
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen
0.60
Minija
0.67
Suduva Marijampole
0.75
Šilutė
1.00
Nemunas
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Šiauliai
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.33
Tauras
1.33
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Jonava
1.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
Vilnius FA
2.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Utenos Utena
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Alternatyvus FK
2.67
Viltis Vilnius
3.00
Širvėna Biržai
3.00
Utenis Utena
3.00
Ataka Vilnius
3.00
BFA
3.00
Futboliukas Vilnius
3.05
OG Kaišiadorys
3.05
FK Sumskas
3.05
FK Ketera
3.05
Svyturys
3.05
Radviliškis
3.05
Vilniaus Vytis
3.05
FK Inter Nemencine
3.05
Nadruvis
3.05
Granitas
3.05
FK Jurbarko Imsre
3.05
Kaunas City FA
3.05
VGTU Vilkai
3.50
Pempininkai Gargždai
4.00
FKS Ukmergė
4.00
Geležinis Vilkas
5.00
Venta
6.00
Saned Joniškis
6.00
Dainava
6.00
Tera
8.00
Sendvaris
13.00
Trivartis Vilnius
13.00
Klaipėdos FM is 4.00 goals better than Dainava in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 6.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Klaipėdos FM or Draw✗ Miss
60.3%
Avg Implied -
37%
23%
40%
covers Klaipėdos FM + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Klaipėdos FM or Dainava✓ Hit
76.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
23%
40%
covers Klaipėdos FM + Dainava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dainava✓ Hit
62.9%
Avg Implied -
37%
23%
40%
covers Draw + Dainava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Klaipėdos FM over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
83.9%
Under
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klaipėdos FM over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klaipėdos FM over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.6%
Under
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klaipėdos FM over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Klaipėdos FM, so a minus line means Klaipėdos FM give that many goals of a start and Dainava receive them. At -1, Klaipėdos FM must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Klaipėdos FM win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Klaipėdos FM)Actual: Dainava
Klaipėdos FM -2
8.6%
Draw -2
11.3%
Dainava +2
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Klaipėdos FM)Actual: Dainava
Klaipėdos FM -1
19.9%
Draw -1
17.2%
Dainava +1
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Klaipėdos FM)Actual: Dainava
Klaipėdos FM +1
60.3%
Draw +1
17.8%
Dainava -1
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Klaipėdos FM)Actual: Draw
Klaipėdos FM +2
78.1%
Draw +2
12.1%
Dainava -2
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Klaipėdos FM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.67
1.25
0.50
1.50
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
0.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.77
0.14
0.93
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (30)
0.27
0.77
0.14
0.93
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Klaipėdos FM) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Klaipėdos FM over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klaipėdos FM over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klaipėdos FM over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Klaipėdos FM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
2.00
1.00
2.50
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dainava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.40
0.50
1.50
0.69
1.31
vs Stronger (30)
0.60
1.40
0.50
1.50
0.69
1.31
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Klaipėdos FM) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Klaipėdos FM over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klaipėdos FM over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Klaipėdos FM over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
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Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →