The model favours an Amed victory, with the away side holding a 42 % chance of triumph, a 30 % draw probability, and a 28 % home win chance. The expected total is 2.4 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 27 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2 % chance. Kocaelispor, at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Amed, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.29 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5 % with a 2 % edge), Under 5.5 (96.9 % with a 3 % edge), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4 % with a 4 % edge), Over 19.5 fouls (91.8 %), Under 4.5 (91.4 % with a 3 % edge), and Away under 2.5 goals (90.1 % with a 2 % edge).
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Away win, failed to materialise and the home side claimed a 2-0 victory. Kocaelispor, coming off a win, extended their run with a solid performance, while Amed, after a defeat, could not convert the odds. The model’s call was wrong, with a 42 % probability for the away win. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.7 %; Under 6.5 hit at 99.0 %; Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.5 %; Under 5.5 hit at 96.9 %; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.4 %; Over 19.5 fouls hit at 91.8 %; Under 4.5 hit at 91.4 %; and Away under 2.5 goals hit at 90.1 %. The match delivered a clear home triumph, contrary to the model’s expectation.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kocaelispor win✓ Hit
28.2%
Avg Implied 41.5% · @ 2.25
Edge
-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.35
1xBet
2.31
Betfair
2.30
SBO
2.28
10Bet
2.28
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.19
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.35
Dafabet
3.30
Bet365
3.30
1xBet
3.28
10Bet
3.25
Amed win✗ Miss
41.8%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.21
Edge
+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.41
Pinnacle
3.37
Marathonbet
3.28
888Sport
3.25
Unibet
3.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kocaelispor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.03
1.00
0.86
0.50
1.19
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.11
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (21)
0.86
1.00
1.38
0.75
0.54
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Amed) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Amed
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.00
2.27
0.53
1.67
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.44
0.94
1.88
0.50
1.10
1.30
vs Weaker (12)
2.75
1.08
2.71
0.57
2.80
1.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.3%
@ 1.37+2.1%
Under 1.5
29.7%
@ 2.93-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Under
888Sport
3.10
Pinnacle
3.04
Betfair
3.00
Betano
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.9%
@ 2.18-0.4%
Under 2.5
57.1%
@ 1.66+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
SBO
2.25
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Betano
2.22
Under
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.66
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.0%
@ 3.97-1.5%
Under 3.5
78.0%
@ 1.22+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.20
BetVictor
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
Under
888Sport
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.4%
@ 1.86-0.4%
No
50.6%
@ 1.85+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
BetVictor
1.90
1xBet
1.86
No
Betfair
1.95
888Sport
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Unibet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.77+6.5%
0-1
10.9%@ 7.87+5.3%
0-0
10.4%@ 7.93+4.8%
1-2
8.6%@ 10.41+4.3%
1-0
8.4%@ 6.47+1.5%
0-2
8.2%@ 14.29+5.0%
2-1
6.8%@ 8.54+1.6%
2-0 ✓
5.1%@ 9.83+0.6%
Kocaelispor goals ↓
Amed goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
11%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
1
8.4%
14%
8.6%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.1%
6.8%
4.6%
2.0%
0.7%
3
1.8%
2.4%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kocaelispor goals (down), columns = Amed goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Amed
1.05
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.96
Çorum FK
0.95
Kocaelispor is 0.03 points better than Amed in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Galatasaray
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Samsunspor
1.35
Rizespor
1.35
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Konyaspor
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Amed
1.03
Eyüpspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Çorum FK
0.93
Kocaelispor
0.76
Kocaelispor is 0.27 goals worse than Amed in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Amed
1.71
Erzurumspor FK
1.88
Çorum FK
1.89
Kocaelispor is 0.59 goals better than Amed in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kocaelispor
For 3.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 13.9 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Amed
For 8.1 · Against 3.3 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 10.6 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kocaelispor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
8.1
7.9
4.1
4.0
4.2
27.7
25.8
29.5
vs Stronger (12)
8.1
8.0
8.2
2.9
2.5
3.3
27.1
25.6
28.3
vs Similar (33)
7.8
8.1
7.5
4.6
4.8
4.5
29.0
27.5
30.2
vs Weaker (5)
9.2
8.2
13.0
3.8
3.8
4.0
21.4
20.8
24.0
% over line
31%
32%
30%
56%
50%
62%
87%
77%
96%
% under line
69%
68%
70%
44%
50%
38%
13%
23%
4%
This opponent (Amed) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Amed
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
10.1
8.0
4.7
4.4
4.9
22.3
20.5
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
9.1
9.9
8.3
5.0
4.7
5.3
22.5
20.5
24.7
vs Weaker (21)
8.8
10.4
7.6
4.2
3.9
4.4
22.0
20.3
23.3
% over line
35%
46%
24%
66%
62%
69%
51%
42%
60%
% under line
65%
54%
76%
34%
38%
31%
49%
58%
40%
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
10.9
Beşiktaş
10.4
Samsunspor
9.8
Başakşehir
9.7
Konyaspor
9.7
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.6
Gaziantep FK
9.5
Trabzonspor
9.5
Göztepe
9.4
Rizespor
9.3
Çorum FK
9.2
Amed
9.0
Eyüpspor
9.0
Galatasaray
8.9
Kasımpaşa
8.8
Erzurumspor FK
8.4
Kocaelispor
8.2
Alanyaspor
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
5.7
Fenerbahçe
5.7
Konyaspor
5.1
Göztepe
5.1
Beşiktaş
5.0
Çorum FK
5.0
Kasımpaşa
5.0
Başakşehir
5.0
Amed
5.0
Eyüpspor
5.0
Alanyaspor
4.9
Kocaelispor
4.8
Erzurumspor FK
4.7
Trabzonspor
4.6
Samsunspor
4.6
Galatasaray
4.5
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.5
Rizespor
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Gaziantep FK
29.0
Kasımpaşa
27.8
Kocaelispor
27.2
Alanyaspor
27.0
Başakşehir
26.9
Göztepe
26.7
Trabzonspor
26.4
Eyüpspor
26.4
Rizespor
26.1
Samsunspor
25.8
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.4
Beşiktaş
25.3
Fenerbahçe
25.2
Konyaspor
24.9
Galatasaray
23.8
Erzurumspor FK
23.6
Çorum FK
23.0
Amed
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
35.6%
@ 2.38-3.0%
Under 9.5
64.4%
@ 1.50+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Pinnacle
2.42
Unibet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
Superbet
2.32
Under
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
72.1%
@ 1.36+5.4%
Under 3.5
27.9%
@ 2.72-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.36
Under
Superbet
2.72
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.3%
Under 21.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kocaelispor or Draw✓ Hit
68.5%
Avg Implied 70.9% · @ 1.32
Edge
-2.4%
28%
30%
42%
covers Kocaelispor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Kocaelispor or Amed✓ Hit
69.2%
Avg Implied 71.3% · @ 1.32
Edge
-2.1%
28%
30%
42%
covers Kocaelispor + Amed
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Draw or Amed✗ Miss
62.3%
Avg Implied 57.9% · @ 1.62
Edge
+4.5%
28%
30%
42%
covers Draw + Amed
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.66
888Sport
1.65
William Hil
1.65
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kocaelispor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.5%
@ 1.28-2.1%
Under
29.5%
@ 3.39+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Under
888Sport
3.60
Pinnacle
3.53
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Kocaelispor over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.5%
@ 2.39-4.5%
Under
65.5%
@ 1.53+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.54
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Superbet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Under
888Sport
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Kocaelispor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.5%
@ 5.44-4.6%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.12+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
Superbet
5.50
Under
888Sport
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Kocaelispor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 13.15-3.7%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
888Sport
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Amed over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.5%
@ 1.43+1.6%
Under
33.5%
@ 2.66-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.78
888Sport
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.62
Amed over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.9%
@ 3.11+0.0%
Under
70.1%
@ 1.33-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.35
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
BetVictor
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Under
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
888Sport
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Amed over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 8.20-1.5%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.06+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
888Sport
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Amed over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 21.69-1.9%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
26.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kocaelispor, so a minus line means Kocaelispor give that many goals of a start and Amed receive them. At -1, Kocaelispor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kocaelispor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kocaelispor)Actual: Draw
Kocaelispor -2
5.7%
@ 9.70-3.5%
Draw -2
11.2%
@ 6.11-3.3%
Amed +2
83.1%
@ 1.17+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
9.50
Superbet
9.30
Unibet
9.00
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.10
Unibet
5.75
Away
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Handicap -1 (Kocaelispor)Actual: Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor -1
16.9%
@ 4.43-3.3%
Draw -1
20.8%
@ 3.70-3.4%
Amed +1
62.3%
@ 1.60+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Away
Unibet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Handicap +1 (Kocaelispor)Actual: Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor +1
68.5%
@ 1.33+1.0%
Draw +1
18.5%
@ 4.53-1.3%
Amed -1
13.0%
@ 7.05+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Draw
Marathonbet
4.80
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Away
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Handicap +2 (Kocaelispor)Actual: Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor +2
87.0%
@ 1.07+1.8%
Draw +2
9.0%
@ 9.17-0.9%
Amed -2
4.0%
@ 19.00-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kocaelispor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.37
0.64
0.29
0.25
0.44
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.44
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.33
0.75
0.25
0.31
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Amed) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Amed
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
0.93
0.20
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.39
0.62
0.12
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (12)
1.50
0.67
1.29
0.29
1.80
1.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
William Hil
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.31
Betano
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Under
William Hil
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
BetVictor
9.00
William Hil
8.50
Superbet
8.10
Marathonbet
8.10
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kocaelispor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Kocaelispor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.85
1xBet
6.50
Superbet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
Kocaelispor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Amed over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
Marathonbet
2.46
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.45
Unibet
2.38
Under
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Amed over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.50
Superbet
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Amed over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kocaelispor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.67
0.36
0.57
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.67
0.62
0.50
0.23
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Amed) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Amed
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.50
1.33
0.33
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.56
1.25
0.38
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.42
1.43
0.29
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Under
1xBet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.40
William Hil
2.40
10Bet
2.38
1xBet
2.32
Under
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
William Hil
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.50
Superbet
5.45
10Bet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.15
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kocaelispor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Under
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.92
Kocaelispor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Kocaelispor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Amed over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Under
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Amed over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.65
1xBet
6.65
Superbet
6.30
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Amed over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.1%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.5%
1.12
888Sport
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
84.3%
1.16
Superbet
1.21
Unibet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.1%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
+6.8%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
78.0%
1.22
888Sport
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.6%
1.29
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.1%
1.36
Superbet
1.36
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.5%
1.28
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.3%
1.37
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.1%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
888Sport
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
-0.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kocaelispor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Massadio Haïdara33%
Metehan Altunbaş33%
Berkan Kutlu33%
Show0%
Anfernee Jamal Dijksteel0%
Makana Baku0%
Dan Agyei0%
Uğur Kaan Yıldız0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Serhat Öztaşdelen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dan Agyei33%
Tanguy Zoukrou33%
Show0%
Massadio Haïdara0%
Anfernee Jamal Dijksteel0%
Makana Baku0%
Metehan Altunbaş0%
Uğur Kaan Yıldız0%
Berkan Kutlu0%
Serhat Öztaşdelen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Show33%
Anfernee Jamal Dijksteel33%
Uğur Kaan Yıldız33%
Massadio Haïdara0%
Makana Baku0%
Metehan Altunbaş0%
Dan Agyei0%
Berkan Kutlu0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Serhat Öztaşdelen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Show0%
Massadio Haïdara0%
Anfernee Jamal Dijksteel0%
Makana Baku0%
Metehan Altunbaş0%
Dan Agyei0%
Uğur Kaan Yıldız0%
Berkan Kutlu0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Serhat Öztaşdelen0%
Amed
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dia Saba33%
Gökhan Gül33%
Yira Collins Sor33%
Gift Orban33%
Mbaye Diagne0%
Lumbardh Dellova0%
Rayan Raveloson0%
David Robert Bates0%
Alban Lafont0%
Umut Meraş0%
Mehmet Yeşil0%
Samuel Ballet0%
Ermal Krasniqi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lumbardh Dellova33%
Rayan Raveloson33%
Alban Lafont33%
Umut Meraş33%
Samuel Ballet33%
Ermal Krasniqi33%
Gift Orban33%
Mbaye Diagne0%
Dia Saba0%
David Robert Bates0%
Gökhan Gül0%
Mehmet Yeşil0%
Yira Collins Sor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lumbardh Dellova33%
Mehmet Yeşil33%
Samuel Ballet33%
Gift Orban33%
Mbaye Diagne0%
Dia Saba0%
Rayan Raveloson0%
David Robert Bates0%
Gökhan Gül0%
Alban Lafont0%
Umut Meraş0%
Yira Collins Sor0%
Ermal Krasniqi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mbaye Diagne33%
Yira Collins Sor33%
Dia Saba0%
Lumbardh Dellova0%
Rayan Raveloson0%
David Robert Bates0%
Gökhan Gül0%
Alban Lafont0%
Umut Meraş0%
Mehmet Yeşil0%
Samuel Ballet0%
Ermal Krasniqi0%
Gift Orban0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
TRA (31)
€168m
BAŞ (32)
€77m
GÖZ (26)
€61m
SAM (30)
€50m
ÇF (28)
€47m
RIZ (24)
€44m
ALA (29)
€38m
KON (26)
€33m
KAS (31)
€31m
GF (28)
€28m
AME (22)
€27m
EF (26)
€26m
KOC (26)
€24m
GS (19)
€15m
EYÜ (24)
€14m
Kocaelispor's squad is €3m less valuable than Amed's (€24m vs €27m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€173m
FEN (14)
€162m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
BAŞ (13)
€40m
GÖZ (10)
€30m
SAM (12)
€20m
AME (7)
€15m
KAS (13)
€14m
GF (14)
€14m
KON (10)
€13m
RIZ (8)
€12m
ÇF (9)
€12m
EF (9)
€10m
ALA (11)
€9m
KOC (8)
€9m
EYÜ (10)
€5m
GS (4)
€4m
Kocaelispor's attack is €6m less valuable than Amed's (€9m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
TRA (9)
€38m
GÖZ (7)
€19m
ALA (9)
€18m
ÇF (7)
€14m
SAM (6)
€12m
BAŞ (6)
€10m
KOC (8)
€9m
GF (5)
€8m
EF (4)
€7m
RIZ (4)
€7m
GS (6)
€5m
KAS (7)
€4m
KON (4)
€4m
AME (4)
€3m
EYÜ (4)
€2m
Kocaelispor's midfield is €6m more valuable than Amed's (€9m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
TRA (11)
€63m
BAŞ (13)
€28m
RIZ (12)
€25m
ÇF (12)
€21m
SAM (12)
€18m
KON (12)
€16m
KAS (11)
€12m
GÖZ (9)
€12m
ALA (9)
€11m
AME (11)
€9m
EF (13)
€8m
KOC (10)
€7m
EYÜ (10)
€7m
GF (9)
€6m
GS (9)
€5m
Kocaelispor's defence is €3m less valuable than Amed's (€7m vs €9m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Galatasaray
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş
Fenerbahçe
Rizespor
Kasımpaşa
Başakşehir
Samsunspor
Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor
Gaziantep FK
Eyüpspor
Göztepe
Çorum FK
Erzurumspor FK
Konyaspor