Kolkheti Poti’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding 1.43 goals per match while scoring just 0.71, whereas Aragvi Dusheti, on the road, has a slightly better attack, netting 1.31 goals per game, but also conceding 1.23. The model projects a tight affair, with the most likely outcome a home win and the expected total goals hovering around 2.1. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7% chance. Home victory stands at 40%, a draw at 33%, and an away win at 28%. The model’s selections emphasize a low-scoring game: Under 7.5 goals at 99.9%, Under 6.5 at 99.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.5%, and Under 5.5 at 98.1% with a 7% edge. Kolkheti Poti is coming off a defeat, while Aragvi Dusheti enters on a two-game winning run.
Results analysis
The match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win call, which had a 40% probability. The prediction was wrong. The scoreline matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, which had a 14.7% chance. The game was a low-scoring affair, with both sides keeping their first-half totals below 2.5 goals, confirming the model’s eight selections: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (98.1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%). All eight picks hit, underscoring the match’s defensive character.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kolkheti Poti win✗ Miss
39.7%
Avg Implied 39.6% · @ 2.28
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Dafabet
2.34
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.26
Draw✓ Hit
32.7%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.22
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.20
Aragvi Dusheti win✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 32.4% · @ 2.78
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.88
1xBet
2.83
10Bet
2.80
Betfair
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kolkheti Poti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.93
1.00
1.93
1.20
1.93
vs Stronger (15)
1.07
2.33
1.29
2.57
0.88
2.12
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.54
0.71
1.43
1.50
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aragvi Dusheti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.27
1.31
1.31
1.21
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.22
1.29
1.21
1.31
1.23
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.4%
@ 1.26-9.5%
Under 1.5
37.6%
@ 3.22+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Under
Superbet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.1%
@ 1.88-14.9%
Under 2.5
65.9%
@ 1.80+14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.85
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Betano
1.78
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.5%
@ 3.11-13.6%
Under 3.5
84.5%
@ 1.27+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.14
Superbet
3.05
Under
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.3%
@ 1.70-11.7%
No
57.7%
@ 1.99+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
No
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.7%@ 5.72+7.7%
0-0
14.0%@ 9.26+9.7%
1-0
13.3%@ 7.12+7.6%
0-1
10.3%@ 8.14+5.4%
2-0
8.4%@ 9.74+4.3%
2-1
7.7%@ 8.24+2.8%
1-2
6.1%@ 9.36+1.8%
0-2
5.3%@ 12.40+2.1%
Kolkheti Poti goals ↓
Aragvi Dusheti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
10%
5.3%
1.6%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.1%
1.9%
0.4%
2
8.4%
7.7%
3.5%
1.1%
0.2%
3
3.2%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kolkheti Poti goals (down), columns = Aragvi Dusheti goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Kolkheti Poti is 0.75 points worse than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Kolkheti Poti is 0.38 goals worse than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Kolkheti Poti and Aragvi Dusheti are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kolkheti Poti or Draw✓ Hit
72.4%
Avg Implied 68.1% · @ 1.33
Edge
+4.3%
40%
33%
28%
covers Kolkheti Poti + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Kolkheti Poti or Aragvi Dusheti✗ Miss
67.3%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.26
Edge
-4.9%
40%
33%
28%
covers Kolkheti Poti + Aragvi Dusheti
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Draw or Aragvi Dusheti✓ Hit
60.3%
Avg Implied 59.7% · @ 1.52
Edge
+0.6%
40%
33%
28%
covers Draw + Aragvi Dusheti
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.3%
@ 1.23-5.7%
Under
31.7%
@ 3.50+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.23
Under
1xBet
3.50
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.9%
@ 2.22-9.5%
Under
68.1%
@ 1.57+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Under
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
59.9%
@ 1.31-9.5%
Under
40.1%
@ 2.97+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.31
Under
1xBet
2.97
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.3%
@ 2.54-12.7%
Under
76.7%
@ 1.43+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.54
Marathonbet
2.54
Under
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kolkheti Poti, so a minus line means Kolkheti Poti give that many goals of a start and Aragvi Dusheti receive them. At -1, Kolkheti Poti must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kolkheti Poti win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kolkheti Poti)Actual: Aragvi Dusheti
Kolkheti Poti -2
5.6%
Draw -2
11.7%
Aragvi Dusheti +2
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kolkheti Poti)Actual: Aragvi Dusheti
Kolkheti Poti -1
17.3%
@ 4.47-2.4%
Draw -1
22.4%
@ 3.88-0.3%
Aragvi Dusheti +1
60.3%
@ 1.53+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Draw
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.80
Away
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Handicap +1 (Kolkheti Poti)Actual: Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti +1
72.4%
@ 1.34+7.9%
Draw +1
17.6%
@ 4.25-2.8%
Aragvi Dusheti -1
10.1%
@ 5.65-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.34
Draw
Marathonbet
4.25
Away
Marathonbet
5.65
Handicap +2 (Kolkheti Poti)Actual: Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti +2
89.9%
Draw +2
7.4%
Aragvi Dusheti -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kolkheti Poti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.20
0.71
1.00
0.25
1.38
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.54
0.57
0.43
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aragvi Dusheti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.69
0.62
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.52
0.64
0.57
0.46
0.46
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
65.1%
@ 1.36-1.4%
Under 0.5
34.9%
@ 2.71+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.75
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.7%
@ 2.71-5.8%
Under 1.5
72.3%
@ 1.37+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.71
Marathonbet
2.71
10Bet
2.55
Under
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.2%
@ 7.00-5.1%
Under 2.5
91.8%
@ 1.07+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Under
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.8%
@ 1.96-5.7%
Under
59.2%
@ 1.70+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.96
Under
1xBet
1.70
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.2%
@ 2.13-4.5%
Under
61.8%
@ 1.59+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.13
Under
1xBet
1.59
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kolkheti Poti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.10
0.33
1.27
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.13
0.57
1.57
0.62
0.75
vs Similar (13)
0.46
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aragvi Dusheti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.62
0.69
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.70
0.64
0.64
0.85
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.5%
@ 1.22+3.8%
Under 0.5
20.5%
@ 3.80-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.6%
@ 2.10-4.2%
Under 1.5
60.4%
@ 1.64+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.6%
Under 2.5
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.9%
@ 1.68-7.3%
Under
53.1%
@ 1.99+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.68
Under
1xBet
1.99
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.6%
@ 1.82-8.4%
Under
58.4%
@ 1.82+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.82
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.1%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
94.1%
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
-
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.07
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
84.5%
1.27
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-
-
+13.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.5%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.7%
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
-
-
-
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
72.4%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.4%
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.3%
1.37
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
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Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →