The model favours an away win, with a 55% chance for Gareji to come away victorious, a 27% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of a home win. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13.5% probability. Kolkheti Poti, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded, while Gareji on the road averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Under 5.5 (96.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (95.4%), Away +2 handicap (94.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.1%) and Under 4.5 (90.5%). Kolkheti’s recent form shows a draw-heavy run, while Gareji is on a two-game winning streak, suggesting a slight edge for the visitors.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kolkheti Poti win
17.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gareji win
55.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kolkheti Poti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.93
1.00
1.88
1.21
2.00
vs Stronger (15)
1.07
2.33
1.29
2.57
0.88
2.12
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.54
0.75
1.38
1.60
1.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gareji
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.63
1.25
2.06
1.50
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.72
1.00
2.00
1.64
1.36
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.20
3.00
2.50
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.1%
Under 1.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 3.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.5%
No
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
13.6%
1-1
12.7%
0-2
11.8%
0-0
10.3%
1-2
9.3%
0-3
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
1-3
5.0%
Kolkheti Poti goals ↓
Gareji goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
14%
12%
6.3%
2.5%
1
6.0%
13%
9.3%
5.0%
2.0%
2
2.8%
4.5%
3.6%
1.9%
0.8%
3
0.7%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kolkheti Poti goals (down), columns = Gareji goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Kolkheti Poti is 1.00 points worse than Gareji in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Kolkheti Poti is 0.50 goals worse than Gareji in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Kolkheti Poti and Gareji are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kolkheti Poti or Draw
44.2%
Avg Implied -
17%
27%
56%
covers Kolkheti Poti + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti or Gareji
72.8%
Avg Implied -
17%
27%
56%
covers Kolkheti Poti + Gareji
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gareji
83.0%
Avg Implied -
17%
27%
56%
covers Draw + Gareji
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kolkheti Poti, so a minus line means Kolkheti Poti give that many goals of a start and Gareji receive them. At -1, Kolkheti Poti must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kolkheti Poti win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kolkheti Poti)
Kolkheti Poti -2
1.2%
Draw -2
4.2%
Gareji +2
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kolkheti Poti)
Kolkheti Poti -1
5.4%
Draw -1
11.6%
Gareji +1
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kolkheti Poti)
Kolkheti Poti +1
44.2%
Draw +1
25.0%
Gareji -1
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kolkheti Poti)
Kolkheti Poti +2
69.2%
Draw +2
17.6%
Gareji -2
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kolkheti Poti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.62
0.62
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.20
0.71
1.00
0.25
1.38
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.50
0.38
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gareji
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.62
1.06
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.80
0.43
1.07
0.18
0.45
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
2.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kolkheti Poti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.38
1.25
0.79
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.13
0.57
1.57
0.62
0.75
vs Similar (13)
0.54
1.08
0.25
1.00
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gareji
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
0.62
1.00
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.92
0.57
0.93
1.45
0.91
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
1.50
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Samtredia
Sioni
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Merani Martvili