Defensive solidity will shape this low-scoring affair. Kolkheti Poti, who have conceded 1.38 goals per match at home, will face Merani Martvili, who also allow 1.38 away. Kolkheti’s 0.75 home goals and Merani’s 0.38 away goals suggest a tight game. The model favours a home win, with a 49% chance, a 31% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of an away victory. The expected total is 2.1 goals, with the most likely total being two. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Kolkheti, a 15.5% probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.0%), Under 5.5 (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%) and Away under 2.5 goals (96.1%). Kolkheti’s recent draw and Merani’s recent defeats add context, but the odds point to a narrow Kolkheti victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kolkheti Poti win
49.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili win
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kolkheti Poti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.93
1.00
1.88
1.21
2.00
vs Stronger (15)
1.07
2.33
1.29
2.57
0.88
2.12
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.54
0.75
1.38
1.60
1.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Merani Martvili
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.43
1.20
1.33
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.80
1.36
1.25
1.33
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.5%
Under 1.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.3%
Under 2.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.6%
Under 3.5
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
39.8%
No
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.5%
0-0
13.8%
1-1
13.7%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
8.1%
3-0
4.9%
1-2
4.6%
Kolkheti Poti goals ↓
Merani Martvili goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
8.1%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.6%
1.1%
0.2%
2
11%
8.3%
3.1%
0.8%
0.1%
3
4.9%
3.7%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kolkheti Poti goals (down), columns = Merani Martvili goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Kolkheti Poti is 0.12 points better than Merani Martvili in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 0.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Kolkheti Poti is 0.38 goals better than Merani Martvili in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Kolkheti Poti is 0.12 goals better than Merani Martvili in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kolkheti Poti or Draw
80.4%
Avg Implied -
49%
31%
20%
covers Kolkheti Poti + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti or Merani Martvili
69.1%
Avg Implied -
49%
31%
20%
covers Kolkheti Poti + Merani Martvili
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Merani Martvili
50.5%
Avg Implied -
49%
31%
20%
covers Draw + Merani Martvili
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5
Over
52.3%
Under
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kolkheti Poti, so a minus line means Kolkheti Poti give that many goals of a start and Merani Martvili receive them. At -1, Kolkheti Poti must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kolkheti Poti win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kolkheti Poti)
Kolkheti Poti -2
8.9%
Draw -2
15.3%
Merani Martvili +2
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kolkheti Poti)
Kolkheti Poti -1
24.2%
Draw -1
25.3%
Merani Martvili +1
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kolkheti Poti)
Kolkheti Poti +1
80.4%
Draw +1
13.5%
Merani Martvili -1
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kolkheti Poti)
Kolkheti Poti +2
93.9%
Draw +2
4.7%
Merani Martvili -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kolkheti Poti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.62
0.62
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.20
0.71
1.00
0.25
1.38
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.50
0.38
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Merani Martvili
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.36
0.56
0.58
0.67
0.15
0.46
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
64.9%
Under 0.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.9%
Under 1.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.2%
Under 2.5
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.6%
Under
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 HT
Over
29.8%
Under
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kolkheti Poti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.38
1.25
0.79
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.13
0.57
1.57
0.62
0.75
vs Similar (13)
0.54
1.08
0.25
1.00
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Merani Martvili
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.23
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.5%
Under 0.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.1%
Under 1.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.0%
Under 2.5
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.3%
Under
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.1%
Under
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
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Telavi
Gareji
Samtredia
Sioni
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi