PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Kolkheti Poti vs Samtredia Prediction & Stats

Date: 16/09/2026
Time: 13:00
Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
Vs
46%
28%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Samtredia
Samtredia
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Kolkheti Poti are tipped to win, with a 46% chance of a home victory, 28% for a draw and 26% for Samtredia to come away with the win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly high-scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns a 13.6% probability. Kolkheti, playing at home against a weaker side, average one goal scored and one conceded, while Samtredia, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.7%), Home +2 handicap (89.7%) and Under 4.5 (88.4%). Kolkheti are coming off a draw, while Samtredia are on a four-game winning run, setting the stage for a competitive yet likely home-side triumph.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kolkheti Poti win
45.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samtredia win
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L23L00D22D11D00D12L11D23L11DH·DIL30/11A·DIN05/12H·SIO30/05A·SAM13/06H·GOR17/06H·SHT22/06A·ODI08/08H·TEL15/08A·GAR22/08H·ARA30/08← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.931.001.881.212.00
vs Stronger (15)1.072.331.292.570.882.12
vs Similar (13)1.081.540.751.381.601.80
vs Weaker (2)1.501.501.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L12L23L22D12L23L42W10W10W30WA·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06A·ARA08/08H·GOR15/08A·SHT22/08H·ODI28/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.331.931.071.441.56
vs Stronger (29)1.691.382.001.151.441.56
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
9.0%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
4.9%
Kolkheti Poti goals ↓
Samtredia goals →
01234
09.0%7.1%4.4%1.6%0.4%
110%14%6.6%2.3%0.6%
28.6%9.2%4.9%1.7%0.5%
34.3%4.6%2.4%0.9%0.2%
41.6%1.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kolkheti Poti goals (down), columns = Samtredia goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Kolkheti Poti is 0.88 points worse than Samtredia in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Kolkheti Poti is 1.00 goals worse than Samtredia in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Kolkheti Poti is 0.25 goals better than Samtredia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kolkheti Poti or Draw
74.1%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
26%
covers Kolkheti Poti + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti or Samtredia
71.6%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
26%
covers Kolkheti Poti + Samtredia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Samtredia
54.3%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
26%
covers Draw + Samtredia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5
Over
77.4%
Under
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5
Over
65.6%
Under
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Kolkheti Poti, so a minus line means Kolkheti Poti give that many goals of a start and Samtredia receive them. At -1, Kolkheti Poti must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kolkheti Poti win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kolkheti Poti)
Kolkheti Poti -2
9.2%
Draw -2
14.2%
Samtredia +2
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kolkheti Poti)
Kolkheti Poti -1
23.4%
Draw -1
22.3%
Samtredia +1
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kolkheti Poti)
Kolkheti Poti +1
74.1%
Draw +1
15.6%
Samtredia -1
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kolkheti Poti)
Kolkheti Poti +2
89.7%
Draw +2
7.3%
Samtredia -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L03L00D10W10W00D11D01L11D00DH·DIL30/11A·DIN05/12H·SIO30/05A·SAM13/06H·GOR17/06H·SHT22/06A·ODI08/08H·TEL15/08A·GAR22/08H·ARA30/08← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.800.620.620.431.00
vs Stronger (15)0.471.200.711.000.251.38
vs Similar (13)0.540.460.500.380.600.60
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L02L01L10W11D21W00D10W20WA·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06A·ARA08/08H·GOR15/08A·SHT22/08H·ODI28/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.571.070.360.880.75
vs Stronger (29)1.000.591.150.380.880.75
vs Similar (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W00D12L01L00D01L10W12L11DH·DIL30/11A·DIN05/12H·SIO30/05A·SAM13/06H·GOR17/06H·SHT22/06A·ODI08/08H·TEL15/08A·GAR22/08H·ARA30/08← Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga 2 →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.130.381.250.791.00
vs Stronger (15)0.601.130.571.570.620.75
vs Similar (13)0.541.080.251.001.001.20
vs Weaker (2)0.501.500.001.001.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W21W21W02L12L21W10W00D10WA·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06A·ARA08/08H·GOR15/08A·SHT22/08H·ODI28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.770.860.710.560.81
vs Stronger (29)0.690.790.850.770.560.81
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.5%-------
Under 6.598.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals97.7%-------
Under 5.595.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals93.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals90.7%-------
Home +2 handicap89.7%-------
Under 4.588.4%-------
Home under 2.5 goals81.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals77.4%-------
Away +2 handicap76.6%-------
Under 3.574.6%-------
Home or Draw74.1%-------
Home +1 handicap74.1%-------
Over 1.573.6%-------
Home or Away71.6%-------
Away under 1.5 goals71.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
Kolkheti Poti and Samtredia have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (2)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Kolkheti Poti and Samtredia have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
Kolkheti Poti and Samtredia have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
Kolkheti Poti and Samtredia have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
KP wins
3
Draws
0
SAM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kolkheti Poti vs Samtredia · H/A from KP
DateH/AGameScore
13/06/26ASamtredia Vs KP2-2
19/10/24HKP Vs Samtredia0-0
10/08/24ASamtredia Vs KP1-3
26/04/24HKP Vs Samtredia2-0
06/03/24ASamtredia Vs KP1-1

Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HKP Vs Aragvi Dusheti1-1
22/08/26AGareji Vs KP3-2
15/08/26HKP Vs Telavi1-1
08/08/26AOdishi 1919 Vs KP2-1
22/06/26HKP Vs Shturmi0-0
17/06/26HKP Vs Gori1-1
13/06/26ASamtredia Vs KP2-2
30/05/26HKP Vs Sioni0-0
05/12/25ADinamo Batumi Vs KP3-2
30/11/25HKP Vs Dila1-4

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HSAM Vs Odishi 19193-0
22/08/26AShturmi Vs SAM0-1
15/08/26HSAM Vs Gori1-0
08/08/26AAragvi Dusheti Vs SAM2-4
22/06/26ASioni Vs SAM3-2
17/06/26AMerani Martvili Vs SAM2-1
13/06/26HSAM Vs Kolkheti Poti2-2
30/05/26AGareji Vs SAM3-2
06/12/25HSAM Vs Merani Martvili1-2
29/11/25AMeshakhte Vs SAM1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 0 Wins / 6 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLD0.78
HomeDDDDD0.85
AwayLLDLL0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%15%17%
AVG goals2.782.622.96
Over 1.5 %80%73%88%
Over 2.5 %54%50%58%
Over 3.5 %36%35%38%
Scored1.021.080.96
Conceded1.761.542.00
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet14%19%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Samtredia
Samtredia
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW1.20
HomeWLDWW1.46
AwayLLLWW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals2.582.252.88
Over 1.5 %70%71%69%
Over 2.5 %48%33%62%
Over 3.5 %26%21%31%
Scored1.281.331.23
Conceded1.300.921.65
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet22%29%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TelaviTelavi817
62%
2.1
83+5
1.4
38%
12%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.4
-
2GarejiGareji814
50%
1.8
1210+2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
3SamtrediaSamtredia813
50%
1.6
1612+4
3.5
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
4SioniSioni813
50%
1.6
1111+0
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti812
38%
1.5
1110+1
2.6
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Odishi 1919Odishi 1919811
38%
1.4
79-2
2.0
62%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
7GoriGori810
38%
1.2
119+2
2.5
62%
38%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8ShturmiShturmi88
25%
1.0
59-4
1.8
50%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.1
-
9Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti86
0%
0.8
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Merani MartviliMerani Martvili85
12%
0.6
511-6
2.0
75%
38%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

← all matches