Kolkheti Poti's recent form has been concerning, coming off a defeat in their last match against Odishi 1919, where they conceded two goals. Their home form is not impressive, with an average of 1 goal scored and 2 conceded against similar opponents. Telavi, on the other hand, has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, with a strong away performance, averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1 conceded against similar opponents.
The model predicts a 45% chance of an away win, with the model's selection being the away win. The expected total goals is 2.1, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 14.3% of the time. The suggested picks include Under 3.5, which has an 83.1% probability. The home win percentage is 24%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 45%. The model's Under 3.5 selection has a 83.1% probability, while the other suggested picks are not mentioned.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Telavi has drawn with Kolkheti Poti, extending their unbeaten run to six matches, with their last five results reading DLDDD. The win extends Telavi's run of consecutive victories to five, having beaten Kolkheti Poti 1-1 in their previous encounter. The pre-match favourite, Telavi, did not come through, with the model's selection, an Away win, proving incorrect. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection, an Away win, had a 45% probability of occurring. The model's selection, Under 3.5, hit, with an 83.1% probability. The model's selection, Under 3.5, was the most likely to occur.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Kolkheti Poti winâ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.21
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.38
Dafabet
3.35
Bet365
3.30
1xBet
3.22
Drawâ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.15
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Marathonbet
3.18
1xBet
3.18
10Bet
3.10
Telavi winâ Miss
44.9%
Avg Implied 43.2% · @ 2.09
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.10
Dafabet
2.03
Bet365
2.00
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Kolkheti Poti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.03
1.00
2.00
1.06
2.06
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
2.38
1.29
2.57
0.78
2.22
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.67
0.67
1.50
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telavi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.17
1.12
1.06
1.23
1.31
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
1.33
0.73
1.18
1.43
1.57
vs Similar (11)
1.45
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.4%
@ 1.35-2.6%
Under 1.5
35.6%
@ 2.74+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Under
Marathonbet
2.78
1xBet
2.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.1%
@ 2.14-6.7%
Under 2.5
63.9%
@ 1.60+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.13
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.05
Under
Bet365
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.9%
@ 3.98-5.8%
Under 3.5
83.1%
@ 1.17+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
3.86
Under
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.0%
@ 1.89-5.4%
No
57.0%
@ 1.77+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.87
No
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
14.3%@ 5.62+7.0%
0-1
13.7%@ 5.75+6.7%
0-0
13.1%@ 7.38+7.5%
0-2
9.6%@ 8.25+4.7%
1-0
8.8%@ 7.88+3.7%
1-2
8.3%@ 8.25+3.3%
2-1
5.6%@ 10.88+1.8%
2-0
4.4%@ 14.50+1.6%
Kolkheti Poti goals ↓
Telavi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
14%
9.6%
4.1%
1.3%
1
8.8%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
4.4%
5.6%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
3
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kolkheti Poti goals (down), columns = Telavi goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Kolkheti Poti is 1.38 points worse than Telavi in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 2.12).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Kolkheti Poti and Telavi are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Kolkheti Poti is 0.88 goals worse than Telavi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.38).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kolkheti Poti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.71
0.64
0.38
1.12
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
1.25
0.71
1.00
0.22
1.44
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.58
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telavi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.53
0.65
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
0.72
0.45
0.64
0.86
0.86
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.55
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kolkheti Poti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.29
1.36
0.69
0.94
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.12
0.57
1.57
0.56
0.78
vs Similar (12)
0.42
1.08
0.00
1.17
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Telavi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Telavi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.59
0.41
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (18)
0.39
0.61
0.27
0.55
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.45
1.20
0.20
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Telavi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.1%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-
+5.8%
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gareji
Samtredia
Sioni
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Merani Martvili