PythiaFootballBETA
The model predicts an away win for Spartak Trnava over Komárno, with Komárno struggling at home. Komárno has been coming off a draw, but their recent form has been inconsistent, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 1.6 goals at home. In contrast, Spartak Trnava has been on a 2-game winning run, scoring an average of 2.29 goals and conceding 0.71 goals away from home against weaker opponents.
The predicted match result is an away win, with a 45% probability of Spartak Trnava taking the three points. The model suggests a 26% chance of a home win and a 29% chance of a draw. The expected total goals are 2.5, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 13.6%. The model's selection is the away win, with a 45% probability.
The model also suggests several other selections, including Over 21.5 fouls at 85.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 78.7%, and Under 3.5 at 74.8% with an edge of 3%. Additionally, the model suggests Over 1.5 at 73.4% with an edge of 1%.
The win extends Komárno's run of draws, but it was Spartak Trnava's away form that ultimately told the story as they secured a 1-2 victory. The away win was the correct call from the Pythia prediction model, which had assigned a 45% probability to this outcome. The model's selection of an away win proved correct, as the model had tipped Spartak Trnava to win. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 74.8% probability, while Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a 73.4% probability.
Komárno| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.23 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 1.00 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.12 | 1.24 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
Spartak Trnava| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.27 | 1.47 | 1.07 | 1.67 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.62 | 2.38 | 0.50 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 2.00 | 0.70 | 2.00 | 0.20 | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.83 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
| Spartak Trnava goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.1% | 10% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 14% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
KomárnoSpartak TrnavaKomárno| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 27.3 | 26.4 | 28.4 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 30.4 | 29.3 | 31.2 |
| vs Similar (33) | 9.9 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 26.6 | 25.9 | 27.6 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 8.7 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 25.3 | 23.0 | 26.5 |
| % over line | 47% | 59% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 32% | 91% | 88% | 93% |
| % under line | 53% | 41% | 67% | 64% | 60% | 68% | 9% | 12% | 7% |
Spartak Trnava| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 28.4 | 29.3 | 27.6 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 9.2 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 30.6 | 32.2 | 29.3 |
| vs Similar (18) | 9.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 4.8 | 26.7 | 28.5 | 25.5 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 8.9 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 27.7 | 27.3 | 28.2 |
| % over line | 45% | 40% | 50% | 44% | 28% | 60% | 90% | 100% | 81% |
| % under line | 55% | 60% | 50% | 56% | 72% | 40% | 10% | 0% | 19% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 85.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 77.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 74.8% | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | +3.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 73.4% | 1.28 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.29 | +1.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 24/08/25 | H | 1-4 | |
| 09/11/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 30/10/24 | A | 3-2 |
Komárno| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 19/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 0-1 |
Spartak Trnava| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Spartak Trnava | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 56% |
| 2 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 0 | +12 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 44 | 26 | 6 | 12 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 3 |  Podbrezová | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 4 |  Dunajska Streda | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 2.3 | 100% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 53% |
| 5 |  Skalica | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 42% |
| 6 |  Žilina | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 5.0 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 50% |
| 7 |  FK Košice | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 6.7 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 49% |
| 8 |  AS Trencin | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 51% |
| 9 | Komárno | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 48% |
| 10 |  Zemplín Michalovce | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.8 | 75% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 11 |  Ružomberok | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 43% |
| 12 |  Dukla Banská Bystrica | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 3.2 | - |