Kongsvinger hosts Haugesund in the Norway: 1. Division, with the model predicting an away win. The expected total goals are 4.0, suggesting a high-scoring match. Haugesund's recent form is noteworthy, coming off a 4-3 win over Ranheim, while Kongsvinger is coming off a defeat to Strommen.
The model assigns a 36% chance to Kongsvinger winning at home, a 22% chance to a draw, and a 42% chance to Haugesund winning away. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 8.1%. The most likely total number of goals is 6 or more.
Kongsvinger has scored an average of 2.5 goals at home, conceding 2.0. Haugesund has scored 1.4 goals away, conceding 2.6. The model's selections include Over 1.5 (92%), Over 2.5 (76%), and BTTS Yes (75.3%). Haugesund is also the model's selection to win, with a 42% chance. Kongsvinger has a 36% chance of winning, and a 22% chance of drawing.
Results analysis
In a stunning turn of events, Kongsvinger came from behind to claim a 3-2 victory over Haugesund, extending their winning streak to three matches. This result defies the pre-match favourite, Haugesund, who had a 40% chance of winning according to the Pythia prediction model. The model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's other selections performed well, with Over 1.5 hitting at 91.5%, Over 2.5 hitting at 76%, and BTTS Yes also hitting at 75.4%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kongsvinger win✓ Hit
37.7%
Avg Implied 52.0% · @ 1.77
Edge
-14.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.90
SBO
1.84
Pinnacle
1.79
Dafabet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied 21.6% · @ 4.26
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Pinnacle
4.46
Dafabet
4.40
Betfair
4.40
Haugesund win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.48
Edge
+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.73
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.63
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kongsvinger
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.53
2.13
1.73
2.47
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
2.00
1.86
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.67
vs Weaker (9)
3.00
0.78
2.67
0.67
3.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haugesund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.50
1.25
2.50
1.14
2.50
vs Stronger (15)
0.87
2.60
1.00
2.67
0.67
2.50
vs Similar (15)
1.53
2.40
1.57
2.29
1.50
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.5%
@ 1.04+2.0%
Under 1.5
8.5%
@ 8.91-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.06
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Under
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
888Sport
10.00
1xBet
8.10
Marathonbet
8.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.0%
@ 1.20-1.3%
Under 2.5
24.0%
@ 4.08+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.20
BetVictor
4.20
Bet365
4.20
Pinnacle
4.11
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.4%
@ 1.54-4.1%
Under 3.5
43.6%
@ 2.36+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.55
BetVictor
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.38
10Bet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
75.4%
@ 1.23+0.3%
No
24.6%
@ 3.71-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
No
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.1%@ 10.54+3.8%
1-2
7.5%@ 12.70+3.9%
2-2
7.3%@ 9.66+2.7%
2-1
7.2%@ 9.28+2.4%
1-3
5.0%@ 21.02+2.9%
2-3
4.9%@ 16.50+2.2%
3-2 ✓
4.8%@ 12.00+1.0%
3-1
4.7%@ 10.96+0.6%
Kongsvinger goals ↓
Haugesund goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
3.0%
3.8%
2.6%
1.3%
1
2.9%
8.1%
7.5%
5.0%
2.6%
2
3.6%
7.2%
7.3%
4.9%
2.5%
3
2.3%
4.7%
4.8%
3.2%
1.6%
4
1.1%
2.3%
2.4%
1.6%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kongsvinger goals (down), columns = Haugesund goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Kongsvinger is 0.02 points better than Haugesund in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Kongsvinger is 0.31 goals worse than Haugesund in terms of goals scored per game (2.83 vs 3.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Kongsvinger is 0.26 goals worse than Haugesund in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kongsvinger or Draw✓ Hit
59.9%
Avg Implied -
38%
22%
40%
covers Kongsvinger + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger or Haugesund✓ Hit
77.8%
Avg Implied -
38%
22%
40%
covers Kongsvinger + Haugesund
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Haugesund✗ Miss
62.3%
Avg Implied -
38%
22%
40%
covers Draw + Haugesund
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kongsvinger
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.87
0.80
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.67
0.83
0.83
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haugesund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.03
0.62
1.00
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
0.87
0.33
0.89
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (15)
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.14
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kongsvinger
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.93
1.27
0.93
1.47
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.19
1.19
1.17
1.17
1.22
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haugesund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.47
0.62
1.50
0.57
1.43
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.73
0.67
1.78
0.17
1.67
vs Similar (15)
0.73
1.20
0.57
1.14
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
91.5%
1.04
Unibet
1.06
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
76.0%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
-1.3%
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
75.4%
1.23
Betano
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+0.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Haugesund · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sory Diarra24%
Runar Espejord14%
Ilir Kukleci14%
Havard Karlsen10%
Claus Niyukuri9%
Emil Rohd8%
Julius Eskesen8%
Niko Hämäläinen8%
Ismaël Seone6%
Sander Innvær6%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Madiodio Dia4%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Morten Agnes Konradsen0%
Amund Wichne0%
Bruno Leite0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Parfait Bizoza0%
Miika Koskela0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miika Koskela38%
Bruno Leite29%
Martin Alvsaker25%
Julius Eskesen23%
Madiodio Dia22%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug18%
Niko Hämäläinen15%
Ilir Kukleci14%
Troy Nyhammer14%
Mikkel Fischer12%
Parfait Bizoza10%
Emil Rohd8%
Pyry Hannola8%
Oscar Krusnell7%
Morten Agnes Konradsen6%
Ismael Camara6%
Sory Diarra5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Claus Niyukuri4%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Amund Wichne0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Runar Espejord0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Sander Innvær0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jasper Silva Torkildsen33%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug9%
Claus Niyukuri9%
Niko Hämäläinen8%
Pyry Hannola8%
Anders Bondhus7%
Bruno Leite5%
Sory Diarra5%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Parfait Bizoza3%
Julius Eskesen0%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Morten Agnes Konradsen0%
Amund Wichne0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Runar Espejord0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Miika Koskela0%
Ilir Kukleci0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Sander Innvær0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Emil Rohd0%
Mikkel Hope0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Madiodio Dia0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Runar Espejord29%
Julius Eskesen15%
Morten Agnes Konradsen12%
Sory Diarra10%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug9%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Parfait Bizoza3%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Amund Wichne0%
Bruno Leite0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Niko Hämäläinen0%
Miika Koskela0%
Ilir Kukleci0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Claus Niyukuri0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Sander Innvær0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Emil Rohd0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Madiodio Dia0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Kongsvinger's squad is €3m less valuable than Haugesund's (€6m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Kongsvinger and Haugesund have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Kongsvinger's midfield is €1m less valuable than Haugesund's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Kongsvinger's defence is €2m less valuable than Haugesund's (€2m vs €4m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →