Kongsvinger’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 3-point haul against Haugesund suggest a potent attack, while hodd’s 3-game run and a 4-3 win over Strommen hint at resilience at home. The model favours a home win, with a 60 % chance, a draw at 19 %, and an away win at 20 %. The average goal count is 4.1, and the most likely total is 6 + goals, with a 23 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Kongsvinger, at 8.5 %. Kongsvinger averages 2.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded at home against weaker opposition, whereas hodd concedes 3.4 and scores 0.8 away against stronger teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (94.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.5 %), Home over 0.5 goals (92.5 %), Over 1.5 (92.1 %), Home +2 handicap (90.9 %), Under 6.5 (88.1 %), Away under 2.5 goals (81.0 %), and Home or Away (80.7 %).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kongsvinger win
63.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
hodd win
19.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kongsvinger
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.57
2.20
1.93
2.40
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
2.00
1.90
2.08
2.25
1.89
1.44
vs Weaker (9)
3.00
0.78
2.67
0.67
3.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
hodd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
2.17
1.80
1.73
1.27
2.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
3.14
1.67
2.00
0.75
4.00
vs Similar (22)
1.64
1.95
1.83
1.67
1.40
2.30
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
94.1%
Under 1.5
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
81.9%
Under 2.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
64.7%
Under 3.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
75.5%
No
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.6%
3-1
7.3%
2-2
6.1%
1-1
5.9%
3-2
5.8%
4-1
5.2%
2-0
4.8%
3-0
4.6%
Kongsvinger goals ↓
hodd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.7%
1.3%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
1
2.8%
5.9%
4.3%
2.3%
0.9%
2
4.8%
7.6%
6.1%
3.2%
1.3%
3
4.6%
7.3%
5.8%
3.0%
1.2%
4
3.3%
5.2%
4.1%
2.2%
0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kongsvinger goals (down), columns = hodd goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Ranheim
0.50
Raufoss
0.50
Moss
0.29
Kongsvinger is 0.02 points better than hodd in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Kongsvinger is 0.40 goals better than hodd in terms of goals scored per game (2.83 vs 2.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Kongsvinger is 1.02 goals better than hodd in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 2.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kongsvinger or Draw
81.0%
Avg Implied -
63%
18%
19%
covers Kongsvinger + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger or hodd
82.3%
Avg Implied -
63%
18%
19%
covers Kongsvinger + hodd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or hodd
36.7%
Avg Implied -
63%
18%
19%
covers Draw + hodd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5
Over
94.2%
Under
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5
Over
77.7%
Under
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5
Over
54.2%
Under
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 3.5
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kongsvinger, so a minus line means Kongsvinger give that many goals of a start and hodd receive them. At -1, Kongsvinger must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kongsvinger win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kongsvinger)
Kongsvinger -2
26.7%
Draw -2
17.7%
hodd +2
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kongsvinger)
Kongsvinger -1
44.3%
Draw -1
19.0%
hodd +1
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kongsvinger)
Kongsvinger +1
81.0%
Draw +1
10.3%
hodd -1
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kongsvinger)
Kongsvinger +2
91.3%
Draw +2
5.5%
hodd -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kongsvinger
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.87
0.93
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.78
0.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
hodd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
1.13
0.73
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.91
1.17
0.75
0.50
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kongsvinger
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.97
1.33
1.00
1.40
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.19
1.24
1.25
1.25
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
hodd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.23
0.67
1.00
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
2.00
0.67
1.33
0.25
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.77
1.05
0.67
0.92
0.90
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kongsvinger) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kongsvinger over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kongsvinger over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home over 0.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Kongsvinger's squad is €2m more valuable than hodd's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Kongsvinger's attack is €1m more valuable than hodd's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Kongsvinger and hodd have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Kongsvinger and hodd have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss