Koper are favoured to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of Celje taking the victory. The match is expected to see about 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being two and the most probable scoreline 1-1 at 13.5%. Koper’s home form shows they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Celje, playing away, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 92.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 85.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 83.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.9%, Under 3.5 at 76.6% (hit), Over 23.5 fouls at 71.9%, Over 1.5 at 71.7% (hit) and Over 3.5 cards at 70.5%. Koper’s recent five matches show a 2-game winning streak, while Celje come off a win, both against Aluminij.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Celje overturned the pre-match favourite, Koper, to win 2-0. The model had tipped a home win with a 49% probability, but the pick proved wrong. The final score confirmed an away victory, and the model’s favourite was incorrect. The suggested picks were both successful: Under 3.5 goals hit at 76.6% and Over 1.5 goals hit at 71.7%. Koper had been on a two-game winning streak, yet Celje, fresh from a win, turned the tables. The match ended 0-2, a result that surprised the model’s prediction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Koper win✗ Miss
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Celje win✓ Hit
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Koper
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.56
0.78
1.80
1.00
1.25
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.33
3.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
1.00
1.67
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.83
1.67
1.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.7%
Under 1.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.6%
Under 2.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.1%
No
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.6%
0-0
9.8%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.9%
Koper goals ↓
Celje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
6.9%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
1
12%
13%
5.8%
1.9%
0.4%
2
9.7%
9.2%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.9%
4.6%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Koper goals (down), columns = Celje goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.03
Aluminij
2.00
Celje
1.86
Maribor
1.72
Mura
1.44
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.39
Radomlje
1.22
Bravo
1.00
Gorica
0.74
Tabor Sežana
0.67
Koper is 0.47 points worse than Celje in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aluminij
2.00
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.67
Celje
1.47
Mura
1.39
NK Domzale
1.39
Koper
1.28
Radomlje
0.97
Bravo
0.92
Gorica
0.87
Tabor Sežana
0.81
Koper is 0.19 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celje
0.94
Aluminij
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.08
Koper
1.11
Bravo
1.14
NK Domzale
1.17
Maribor
1.19
Mura
1.25
Radomlje
1.47
Gorica
1.61
Tabor Sežana
1.75
Koper is 0.17 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
59%
Koper
52%
Maribor
51%
Bravo
50%
Mura
50%
Celje
49%
Tabor Sežana
47%
NK Domzale
47%
Gorica
47%
Koper is 2.5 percentage points better than Celje in terms of average possession (52% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Koper
For 4.3 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 10.8 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celje
For 5.0 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 16.8 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Koper
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (9)
9.3
3.3
15.3
3.3
2.8
4.0
23.5
20.5
26.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
10.4
3.0
15.3
4.7
4.0
5.3
25.7
24.0
26.5
vs Weaker (3)
4.0
4.0
-
0.7
1.0
0.0
17.0
17.0
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
44%
40%
50%
75%
50%
100%
% under line
50%
100%
0%
56%
60%
50%
25%
50%
0%
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (7)
8.8
8.5
9.0
2.6
2.7
2.5
25.8
24.5
27.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
8.8
8.5
9.0
3.0
2.7
3.3
25.8
24.5
27.0
% over line
25%
0%
50%
43%
67%
25%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
75%
100%
50%
57%
33%
75%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
10.3
Gorica
10.2
Koper
9.3
NK Domzale
9.0
Bravo
8.8
Celje
8.8
Maribor
8.7
Tabor Sežana
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
5.6
Koper
5.0
Mura
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Celje
4.5
Maribor
4.1
Tabor Sežana
3.4
Bravo
3.2
Gorica
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bravo
27.4
NK Domzale
27.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.8
Maribor
26.2
Celje
25.8
Koper
23.5
Mura
23.2
Gorica
22.5
Tabor Sežana
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.8%
Under 9.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.5%
Under 3.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.9%
Under 21.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Koper
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.33
0.60
0.40
0.25
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
71% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Koper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Koper
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
0.44
1.20
0.60
1.00
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
56% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.43
1.33
0.33
0.25
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.50
1.33
0.33
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Koper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celje · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Nikita Iosifov17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Danijel Šturm12%
Ivica Vidović12%
Darko Hrka10%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaliy Lisakovich50%
Darko Hrka40%
Matija Boben33%
Ivan Ćalušić33%
Franko Kovačević25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Damjan Vuklišević17%
Juanjo Nieto17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Papa Daniel12%
Łukasz Bejger9%
Žan-Luk Leban9%
Armandas Kučys0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
Milot Avdyli0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitaliy Lisakovich25%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Milot Avdyli17%
Darko Hrka10%
Juanjo Nieto8%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Franko Kovačević0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Ivica Vidović12%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Darko Hrka0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
TS (17)
€2m
Koper's squad is €6m less valuable than Celje's (€8m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
Koper's attack is €4m less valuable than Celje's (€3m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
Koper and Celje have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
TS (8)
€1m
Koper's defence is €3m less valuable than Celje's (€3m vs €6m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
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Olimpija Ljubljana
Maribor
NK Domzale
Mura
Radomlje
Bravo
Gorica
Tabor Sežana
Aluminij