The encounter between Koper and Celje is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are slim. Home advantage gives Koper a 40% chance of victory, a 31% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of Celje winning. The average number of goals expected is 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% probability. Koper, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded, while Celje, away, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded against similar teams. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 88.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.8%, Under 3.5 at 79.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.0% and Under 5.5 cards at 73.0%. Each pick is listed with its probability and no other outcome is assigned a win chance. The match is poised to be a close contest with both sides capable of turning the tide.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Celje snatched a 1-0 win, ending Koper’s two-game winning run and denying the model’s favourite. The model had picked a home win with a 40% probability, but the actual result was an away victory. The model’s selection was therefore wrong. The suggested picks were mixed: Over 19.5 fouls (88.4%) missed, Over 2.5 cards (80.8%) hit, Under 3.5 (79.8%) hit, Over 21.5 fouls (78.0%) missed, and Under 5.5 cards (73.0%) hit. The final score of 0-1 matched the actual result, confirming Celje’s win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Koper win✗ Miss
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Celje win✓ Hit
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Koper
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.93
1.36
1.00
1.23
0.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.88
1.00
0.62
1.12
1.12
0.88
vs Weaker (11)
1.91
0.82
2.33
0.83
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.44
1.20
1.83
1.25
1.08
1.15
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.71
1.57
2.67
2.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.33
1.06
1.56
0.89
1.11
1.22
Clean sheet %
32% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.6%
Under 2.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.8%
No
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
11.3%
1-0
11.3%
0-1 ✓
9.1%
2-1
8.3%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.4%
Koper goals ↓
Celje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.1%
5.4%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
2
7.9%
8.3%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.3%
3.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Koper goals (down), columns = Celje goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.03
Aluminij
2.00
Celje
1.86
Maribor
1.72
Mura
1.44
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.39
Radomlje
1.22
Bravo
1.00
Gorica
0.74
Tabor Sežana
0.67
Koper is 0.47 points worse than Celje in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aluminij
2.00
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.67
Celje
1.47
Mura
1.39
NK Domzale
1.39
Koper
1.28
Radomlje
0.97
Bravo
0.92
Gorica
0.87
Tabor Sežana
0.81
Koper is 0.19 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celje
0.94
Aluminij
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.08
Koper
1.11
Bravo
1.14
NK Domzale
1.17
Maribor
1.19
Mura
1.25
Radomlje
1.47
Gorica
1.61
Tabor Sežana
1.75
Koper is 0.17 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
59%
Koper
52%
Maribor
51%
Bravo
50%
Mura
50%
Celje
49%
Tabor Sežana
47%
NK Domzale
47%
Gorica
47%
Koper is 2.5 percentage points better than Celje in terms of average possession (52% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Koper
For 3.4 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 10.0 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celje
For 6.1 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.2 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Koper
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (27)
9.1
6.8
11.9
2.3
2.0
2.5
23.5
22.3
25.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
10.5
6.8
13.0
2.9
2.2
3.6
23.6
23.3
23.8
vs Weaker (11)
6.4
6.8
5.0
1.3
1.7
0.8
23.4
21.5
31.0
% over line
53%
38%
71%
30%
21%
38%
77%
71%
83%
% under line
47%
62%
29%
70%
79%
62%
23%
29%
17%
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (25)
9.6
9.0
10.1
2.4
2.2
2.6
25.8
26.3
25.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
10.0
9.0
10.5
1.6
1.7
1.5
24.0
22.0
25.0
vs Weaker (18)
9.5
9.0
10.0
2.7
2.3
3.1
26.3
27.2
25.4
% over line
46%
33%
57%
36%
33%
38%
92%
100%
86%
% under line
54%
67%
43%
64%
67%
62%
8%
0%
14%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
10.3
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.9
Gorica
9.9
Celje
9.6
Koper
9.1
Maribor
8.9
Bravo
8.8
Tabor Sežana
8.7
NK Domzale
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
4.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Celje
4.6
Mura
4.6
Maribor
4.5
Koper
4.1
Tabor Sežana
3.7
Gorica
3.6
Bravo
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
27.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
27.4
Bravo
26.9
Mura
26.1
Celje
25.8
Maribor
25.4
Gorica
25.4
Koper
23.5
Tabor Sežana
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.9%
Under 9.5
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.0%
Under 3.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
78.0%
Under 21.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Koper
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.52
0.50
0.57
0.62
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.62
0.25
0.75
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.36
0.83
0.33
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
56% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.60
0.50
0.75
0.62
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.14
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.50
0.39
0.56
0.56
0.44
0.22
Clean sheet %
56% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Koper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Koper
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.74
0.41
0.86
0.43
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.45
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
59% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.60
1.33
0.50
0.46
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.43
2.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
56% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Koper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celje · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Nikita Iosifov17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Danijel Šturm12%
Ivica Vidović12%
Darko Hrka10%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaliy Lisakovich50%
Darko Hrka40%
Matija Boben33%
Ivan Ćalušić33%
Franko Kovačević25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Damjan Vuklišević17%
Juanjo Nieto17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Papa Daniel12%
Łukasz Bejger9%
Žan-Luk Leban9%
Armandas Kučys0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
Milot Avdyli0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitaliy Lisakovich25%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Milot Avdyli17%
Darko Hrka10%
Juanjo Nieto8%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Franko Kovačević0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Ivica Vidović12%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Darko Hrka0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
TS (17)
€2m
Koper's squad is €6m less valuable than Celje's (€8m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
Koper's attack is €4m less valuable than Celje's (€3m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
Koper and Celje have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
TS (8)
€1m
Koper's defence is €3m less valuable than Celje's (€3m vs €6m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
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Olimpija Ljubljana
Maribor
NK Domzale
Mura
Radomlje
Bravo
Gorica
Tabor Sežana
Aluminij