The model favours an away win, with Olimpija Ljubljana expected to edge Koper. The odds lean 46% for the visitors, 29% for the hosts and 25% for a draw. A modest 3.1 average goal total is projected, but the most likely total is two goals, a 22% chance. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, with a 11.6% probability. Koper, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded. Olimpija, on the road, also averages 1.67 scored and 1.56 conceded against comparable sides. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 83%, Over 19.5 fouls at 82.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 78.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.7% and Over 2.5 cards at 76.0%. The home side’s recent form shows a two-game winning streak, while the visitors are coming off a draw.
Results analysis
Koper’s two-game winning streak at home was halted as Olimpija Ljubljana, still riding a draw, secured a narrow 0-1 victory, confirming the model’s prediction of an away win with a 46% probability. The final score of 0-1 far exceeded the expected total of 3.1 goals, a clear departure from the model’s 3-goal forecast. The model’s favourite, away win, proved correct. Its single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 83%, missed, as the match produced only one goal. The match’s outcome matched the model’s call, while the total goal prediction was off by a significant margin.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Koper win✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana win✓ Hit
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Koper
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.43
1.54
1.54
1.12
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.40
1.65
1.67
1.78
1.18
1.55
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olimpija Ljubljana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.03
1.44
0.81
1.86
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
1.68
1.21
1.70
0.90
1.67
1.56
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
0.56
1.20
0.40
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.5%
Under 2.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.2%
Under 3.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
6.7%
0-1 ✓
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
0-0
5.4%
1-3
5.4%
Koper goals ↓
Olimpija Ljubljana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
6.6%
6.7%
3.9%
1.7%
1
5.0%
12%
9.3%
5.4%
2.4%
2
4.1%
7.2%
6.4%
3.7%
1.6%
3
1.9%
3.3%
2.9%
1.7%
0.7%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Koper goals (down), columns = Olimpija Ljubljana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.06
Maribor
1.86
Koper
1.83
Celje
1.69
Bravo
1.53
Triglav
1.50
Primorje
1.19
Radomlje
0.97
Mura
0.97
NK Domzale
0.84
Nafta
0.78
Koper is 0.22 points worse than Olimpija Ljubljana in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.11
Triglav
2.00
Maribor
1.78
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.75
Koper
1.67
Bravo
1.44
Primorje
1.14
NK Domzale
1.05
Radomlje
1.03
Mura
1.03
Nafta
0.92
Koper is 0.08 goals worse than Olimpija Ljubljana in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.56
Maribor
0.89
Koper
0.97
Bravo
1.22
Celje
1.42
Mura
1.42
Primorje
1.69
NK Domzale
1.84
Nafta
1.92
Radomlje
1.92
Triglav
2.50
Koper is 0.42 goals worse than Olimpija Ljubljana in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 0.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Koper
For 4.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.4 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Olimpija Ljubljana
For 5.4 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Koper
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.4
8.8
2.3
2.2
2.4
25.7
24.1
27.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
8.4
8.6
8.3
2.5
2.1
2.8
25.2
22.7
27.4
vs Weaker (19)
10.4
11.2
9.8
2.0
2.2
1.8
26.8
27.2
26.4
% over line
52%
43%
60%
34%
25%
42%
82%
77%
87%
% under line
48%
57%
40%
66%
75%
58%
18%
23%
13%
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olimpija Ljubljana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
11.5
8.6
2.8
2.5
3.0
23.5
22.4
24.7
vs Stronger (10)
10.0
11.6
8.4
5.8
6.4
5.2
25.4
23.4
28.0
vs Similar (27)
8.9
10.5
7.8
2.3
1.9
2.8
23.1
21.9
24.4
vs Weaker (13)
12.2
13.3
11.0
1.3
1.0
1.7
21.5
22.0
21.0
% over line
73%
86%
62%
36%
38%
33%
62%
60%
64%
% under line
27%
14%
38%
64%
62%
67%
38%
40%
36%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Celje
9.8
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.5
Koper
9.2
Maribor
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maribor
4.8
NK Domzale
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.5
Mura
4.2
Celje
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.4
Koper
24.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
24.8
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.0%
Under 9.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.4%
Under 3.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.4%
Under 21.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Koper
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.85
0.77
0.41
0.59
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.90
0.89
1.11
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (10)
0.30
0.20
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olimpija Ljubljana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.44
0.31
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.58
0.40
0.30
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.22
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Koper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Koper
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.69
0.77
0.71
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.75
0.78
0.67
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.80
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olimpija Ljubljana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.63
1.30
0.60
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.33
0.60
0.20
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Koper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Olimpija Ljubljana
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Blanco43%
Peter Agba17%
Ivan Durdov14%
Marko Brest12%
Antonio Marin0%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Agustín Doffo0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Raul Florucz0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Marko Ristić0%
Dino Kojić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reda Boultam50%
David Sualehe38%
Peter Agba33%
Jorge Silva29%
Marko Brest25%
Marko Ristić25%
Manuel Pedreno20%
Thalisson20%
Justas Lasickas17%
Raul Florucz17%
Agustín Doffo14%
Álex Blanco14%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović12%
Matevž Vidovšek12%
Antonio Marin0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Dino Kojić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raul Florucz33%
Marko Brest25%
Marko Ristić25%
Agustín Doffo14%
Antonio Marin0%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Álex Blanco0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Peter Agba0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Dino Kojić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Álex Blanco14%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović12%
Antonio Marin0%
Agustín Doffo0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Marko Brest0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Peter Agba0%
Raul Florucz0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Marko Ristić0%
Dino Kojić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
Koper's squad is €4m less valuable than Olimpija Ljubljana's (€8m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
Koper's attack is €3m less valuable than Olimpija Ljubljana's (€3m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
Koper's midfield is €1m more valuable than Olimpija Ljubljana's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
Koper's defence is €2m less valuable than Olimpija Ljubljana's (€3m vs €5m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maribor
Celje
Bravo
Primorje
Mura
Radomlje
NK Domzale
Nafta
Triglav